Nate Silver

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@VorosM I mean partly I'm deliberately test-driving things to gauge sentiment (particularly whether an idea "clicks" or I have to explain it better). Definitely park-adjusting results for the fact that people are assholes on Twitter though! — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@conorsen Yeah, anything involving "searching multiple parameters at once" is ripe for improvement. And LLMs *particularly* have potential when those parameters are fuzzy rather than precise. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@felixsalmon Yeah, I get it. It just seems like they're leaving money on the table, even if it's a secondary business. I'd gladly pay for a "Resy Premium" with personalized (AI-driven?) recs (even OpenTable does OK with those), prioritization on wait lists, push alerts if requested, etc. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@felixsalmon LOL it was your tweet that inspired mine! Also as you're getting at here the incumbent players in this space are punching way below their weight as far as UX. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

One obvious use case for LLMs/AIs is restaurant reservations, e.g. "find me table for 2 at an Italian place you think I'll like South of 14th Street, good wine list but not too pricey, any time between 630 and 8" is hard to do now but should be an "intuitive" task for an LLM. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@DKThomp That's one plausible interpretation but Freddie deBoer is also good on this. High GPA "well-rounded" striver fits into the culture of the upper-middle-class progressive world more so than High SAT still-finding-his/her way eccentric kid. https://t.co/UK0lDPuvYe — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Love the title of the paper and while I don't necessarily agree with every last claim it makes, it's a much better baseline than most discussion about "misinformation", which is rarely rigorous and often not empirically grounded at all. (Via @semaforben). https://t.co/7d0UnHmHTw — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

A lot of argumentative techniques* and linguistic ambiguities function as the equivalent of bluffs in poker. * See e.g. motte-and-bailey arguments. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@conorsen In principle, critiques of elite universities ought to attract support both from the populist *left* as well as the populist right, given their role in reinforcing class hierarchies, but I doubt that they would in practice (you hear little of it from the left today). — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

One thing I find interesting about this is that it comes at a time when college enrollment is down *quite a bit*. I think partly because of educational polarization, US colleges and universities are on a path toward becoming less trusted institutions. https://t.co/5kI8ZpRyvw — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@TheStalwart Yeah I'm sort of agnostic (relative to experts...I'm certainly more worried than the general population) on AI's ability to cause catastrophically bad outcomes but think there's a lack of focus on the high likelihood of enhancing medium-bad very human tendencies. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Interviewing lots of people for this and it's interesting how much some need highly specific prompts and others you can just point in the general direction and say "go". You can tell who's had media training because they do the former. For a *book*, the latter is usually better. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@Wertwhile Sorry but this tweet doesn't change my priors. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Tweets are probably going to get weirder as I get deeper into writing my book, it's weird in this age of Instant Engagement to have all these ideas swimming around in your head and nobody (well except your editor etc.) to share them with. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias https://t.co/RvVmoooSpm — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

This was sort of meant as a joke but I do think tech/AI people underestimate the degree to which AI is still a secondary or tertiary issue to the love-to-yell-at-one-another-about-politics people and how much the politics of AI regulation could change once it gets more attention. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@conorsen @mattyglesias @DKThomp @awprokop Read a study recently that liberals (fitting the stereotypes well enough) are high on openness to experience but also high neuroticism so if you're a high openness / low neutroicism guy you're gonna be pretty cross-pressured. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@semaforben That's the only thing that brings the different factions of Twitter together! — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@conorsen @mattyglesias @DKThomp @awprokop Seems plausible that as social media further blurs the line between the personal and the political, politicial coalitions self-select more on the basis of personality traits. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

There's almost a perfect inverse correlation between people who constantly talk about AI and people who constantly talk about the New York Times Op-Ed page (apparently the only two subjects that anyone talks about on Twitter anymore). — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Part of this is just basic psychology, that when an idea acquires an impression of having been censored or forbidden, it can become alluring, sometimes long past the point where its expression has become banal. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@VPrasadMDMPH I'm being more-than-a-bit petty but I think a person who writes a book about how to win arguments ought to demonstrate some skill at winning arguments. I think he's notably *unpersuasive* tbh. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The trust-the-scinece people should probably read more of the science on motivated reasoning. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

One of my best pieces of advice is that it's important to have hobbies and interests outside of politics, *especially* if you cover politics for a living. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@EsotericCD @mattyglesias Only once you become president should you get access to the nuclear codes and the Yglesias substack. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias That's exactly what someone who's a serious threat to the political health of the nation would say. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @ClubEarlybird: What if waking up early was easy? This… is your cheat code to waking up early👇🏼 https://t.co/rQxktoprmx 4,000+ ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@tszzl Lol I appreciate it, 2016 primaries were not our strongest moment! — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@tszzl I can assure you that the dumb weird people are still arguing about dumb shit, only the smart weird people are arguing about AI. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@Andy_Bloch @AllenKessler Yeah IDK. It feels weird when you text your friend at the table "oh I've played against the 4 seat before and he's a nit" but very hard to enforce, and not fundamentally that different from having the same convo on break. Maybe you just need to take people's phones once deep ITM. — PolitiTweet.org