Nate Silver

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I think I would have gone with "Wordle is fun!" instead. https://t.co/sndmty8PED https://t.co/kpYdh4c4Yu — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@BenjySarlin Yeah. I think it was revealing that after the CDC temporarily relaxed mask guidance last spring, the reaction from public health folks was largely negative even though *at that time* vaccinated people likely weren't spreading very much and cases were low overall. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@BenjySarlin In theory the public policy sweet spot is something like "here are a few temporary measures we'll keep in place until Omicron dies down" but 1) people have good reason to distrust that they're temporary and 2) that message often gets hijacked by the more zealous zero-covid folks. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@TPCarney Most of my friends are liberals but for the past couple of years, they've really started to diverge from the sort of Very Online liberals that dominate Twitter conversations. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

"Living with" COVID is a lot easier of other people in your life are on the same page in terms of COVID safety. Fortunately, that's been the case for me. But I feel bad for people who are "vaxxed and relaxed" but their spouse/friends/family are super COVID-cautious or vice versa. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@TPCarney I'm not sure how common that attitude is except for some very particular subgroups who are probably overrepresented online. I know more people who have gotten COVID than who haven't. I can't really think of anyone who felt embarrassed by it or like it reflected a moral failing. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @ABCPolitics: "It's true members of Congress sometimes vote with their feet—they’ll retire if they think they’re going to lose. But as a… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

That's fair; Republicans have a anti-vax vs. vax-and-relax split. I do think, though, that the Democratic split (between vax-and-relax and "war footing toward COVID") is fairly new as until recently there weren't that many vax-and-relax Democrats. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

What this also highlights is the main split on COVID policy is now *among* Democrats rather than *between* Democrats and Republicans, which is why the fights on here get particularly nasty (since this platform is mostly liberals and intracoalitional arguments always get nasty.) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I also didn't realize (though it isn't surprising) that there's a fairly big partisan gap in happiness (Republicans are happier), which has grown somewhat during the pandemic. https://t.co/8wBf4scfrC — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@TheStalwart Most of the people making the criticism are people who have never had to make a testable prediction themselves, and it shows. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@jbarro @politico Yeah, and the further missing context here is that the NYT's "straight news" coverage of COVID is often pretty take-y, weighing in pretty heavily on one side where there's lots of disagreement among relevant experts. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Wiggins has had a nice season, but they should probably use a z-score or something instead of an ordinal ranking in which case Draymond or Gobert gets in ahead of him. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@jbarro @politico Well, they do offer one weird reason: some of them are sources for NYT health journalists! https://t.co/aFzdPpPpCr — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@devahaz Yeah there are definitely some selection effects here especially with those alternatives tending to target the higher end of the market. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

OpenTable restaurant reservations in January 2022 as compared with January 2019: Miami: +14% Las Vegas: +1% Houston: -13% Denver: -26% LA: -41% Boston: -48% Brooklyn: -55% DC: -59% Manhattan: -64% San Francisco: -66% Cambridge, MA: -75% https://t.co/KWA3Itdp1J — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@chrislhayes Well, people are judgmental! They're constantly judging one another's personal choices, which in the case of COVID are probably more important than public policy measures anyway. And these are interesting choices, more so than a lot of things people judge one another for. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@chrislhayes Quite a few states/cities still have indoor mask mandates and/or vaccine requirements. Schools and workplaces often have additional policies. But also: It's within bounds to debate PAST policies, e.g. widespread school closures, which could be repeated in the future. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@chrislhayes So, I dunno. It's true that the US has almost entirely avoided business closures or anything you could call a "lockdown" since vaccines became widely available. That's an important point that "vaxxed and done" folks can miss. But, it doesn't follow that there's nothing to debate. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias Edwards Would've Won*? * In 2016 if he hadn't cheated on his cancer-stricken wife. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias Maybe Biden should unite the Very Online Left, Very Online Right and Very Online Center by proposing a bill to ban legacy admissions? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

One problem with social media is that it's hard to demonstrate antiengagmemt, i.e. that you think it's an exceptionally stupid conversation that you wish would disappear from your feed, without the algorithm interpreting it as engagement. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Some of the most efficiently-run restaurants in the world are at casinos because it's the one place where wasting your time costs *them* money. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@PFTCommenter Cincinnati is sort of the Garoppolo of cities in that it's never entirely clear where the double consonants should be. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@WaltHickey The Bengals are fun but Mahomes is also fun and the Chiefs are more likely to provide a high-quality game. On Niners vs. Rams, I'm rooting for the Rams because "Can Los Angeles ever be a football town?" is a fun question and a Rams SB in LA would reveal the answer... — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@WaltHickey I assume 4 is highest? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias That's still helpful since it's not like the naive prior is necessarily 50:50 and at least they're not too chickenshit to post the market unlike say @PredictIt. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Or, whichever team doesn't get the ball first gets a "free" extra-point attempt before the OT period begins. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Or... play one 15-minute (or 10-minute) period. But the team that gets the ball *second* advances in the event of a tie. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

One issue with this is that it's still a pretty big advantage to get the ball first, so you could play two 7:30 (or 5:00) periods instead. — PolitiTweet.org