Nate Silver

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Very very bad when the range of final polls is this tight. Almost certainly a sign of herding (pollsters trying to avoid standing out rather than reporting what their data actually shows). https://t.co/PkuMX0CxVK — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias People were right though that some of the "NPIs for now!" people would turn into "NPIs forever!" people (though to be honest I think it was pretty easy to tell who was who all along). — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@feliciasonmez @daveweigel Things like indoor dining, air travel, sports game attendance are all close to their pre-pandemic levels. It's totally cool/understandable if some folks avoid them. But as an empirical matter, most Americans have resumed crowded indoor activities (and many never stopped them). — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@SopanDeb In general defending more shots tends to be correlated with being a better defender. Teams prefer open shots > shots defended by any one particular guy. And when teams do take their chances against Jokic, it doesn't go that well (medicore FG%, very few OREB). — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I don't know if it puts him on the All-Defensive team. Probably you should slot him in somewhere if you consider defensive rebounding part of All-D (which you should IMO). But his defense adds value, especially in the regular season; that combined with super-elite offense = MVP. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Still, overall, RAPTOR sees a lot of complementary evidence. Jokic gets a LOT of *valuable* rebounds, he defends a LOT of shots (at decent efficiency), gets decent numbers of steals; the Nuggets are pretty good defensively with him on the floor and very bad with him off it. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Maybe some of that applies to defense, too? I don't know if you'd say the Nuggets' defense is built around Jokic. But they don't have much of a coherent gameplan on offense *or* defense when he's off the court, especially with Murray/Porter out. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Without getting too deep into the math behind on-off stats, it's reasonable to ask whether they overrate players who are *hard to replace* in the lineup. If you build an offense around a player (Curry, Luka, Jokic) the component parts when they're off the floor may not fit well. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

And it's reasonable to think the Nuggets' good defense when he's on the floor is because of Jokic and not despite him. He's a big, he's very active (lots of rebounds/shots defended/steals). They don't have a lot of other defensive talent, especially with Porter Jr. out. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Third: Jokic's on court, off-court data. RAPTOR uses on-off data in a variety of ways. The Nuggets are a pretty good defensive team with Jokic on the floor (108.9 points allowed/100 possessions per https://t.co/rBhSr3hG3j) and QUITE bad with him off it (115.4 points/100). — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

How are opponents shooting on those attempts? 51.3%, which isn't Gobert-like (44.7%), but is better than the league average of 53.3% from 2 this year. So this profile is sort of the Carmelo Anthony of shooting defense: high volume, slightly-above-average efficiency. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Second, opponent shooting. Jokic is what you might call a high-volume defender. He leads the league in the number of opponent 2-point shot attempts where he's the nearest defender. Defending a lot of 2-point attempts tends to be a good sign for a defender. https://t.co/BB17JAgGet — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

But, also, a higher percentage of Jokic's rebounds are *contested* rebounds than for other top rebounders. So these aren't empty, Westbrook-esque rebounds. Contested defensive rebounds are fairly valuable and he has a lot of them. https://t.co/w1t8S09vH8 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

First, rebounding. Defensive rebounding is an important part of defense. Jokic is second in the league in defensive rebounding %. https://t.co/z6EUhaMXRV — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Inspired by the recent @Herring_NBA @ZachLowe_NBA All-Defense podcast, a 🧵 on why advanced NBA metrics (and in particular 538's RAPTOR) like Nikola Jokic's *defense* quite a bit. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I would submit that "spiking" is not a good description for what is happening to COVID cases in New York City. If they continue to increase—and they very well might—that could get annoying. But so far it's a modest increase from a low baseline. https://t.co/AE5jpC1tIn https://t.co/HqpHp9bx6G — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@conorsen But imagine that Appalachian State played its way into the SEC one year, then went 2-10 and got relegated, then got promoted again, and then were bought by a Russian oil billionaire who pumped hundreds of millions of dollars into the program! Happy times for all! — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@conorsen I think I might actually cancel you for this one. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

And you'd probably trust Google in this case. I don't understand why people are taking Russian polls even semi-seriously. It's not clear that respondents feel as though they can be honest. Also not clear polling firms feel as thought they can be honest when there's no free press. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias I wouldn't take "Utah votes for a Democratic presidential candidate before Texas" at even odds, but I might take it at 3:1 or something. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @Wertwhile: Using the indicators from 538's economic fundamental model for presidential elections that looks to a broad number of indica… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

My theory is that Europe reimposed restrictions during Omicron whereas the US didn't, so Europe saw some rise once those restrictions once those restrictions were lifted whereas in the US, most people who were susceptible to Omicron already got it. https://t.co/mt8LPYn1Eo — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @jonmladd: Yes. When political scientists talk about the economy mattering, it is Real Disposable Income growth that is the best correla… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@Noahpinion @TheStalwart Yeah absolutely. Also wonder how much timing is a factor since a lot of companies negotiate compensation increases at year-end. Whether they thought inflation was transitory or they just thought they could get away with it, raises were meh in Dec. '21. https://t.co/WESoCHvFfD — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@TheStalwart I think you probably have good enough instincts to avoid following these people on Twitter but it's a popular critique among Cable News Brain Liberals. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

This economy is creating weird distributional effects and there are certainly some winners but there are also lots of losers, e.g. people on fixed incomes or who haven't recently been able to renegotiate wages/salary. Not the media's doing that some people are unhappy about it. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Real wages are declining and real disposable income has declined for 7 months in a row. The idea among some folks on here that voters are silly to be concerned about inflation and that Actually The Economy Is Great But The Media Won't Tell You is ridiculous. https://t.co/aMfU29GWVc — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@MileHighBrendan 2nd half looking a little Manek Depressive — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @ThisWeekABC: “My basic rule for forecasting elections is trust the polls unless you have a really good reason not to. And those polls s… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@karlbykarlsmith @mattyglesias I'm mostly on the popularist "side" (i.e. I think catering to the median voter has significant electoral benefits). I just think it's weird that the discourse is almost always framed around "Are Ds moving too far left?" when "Are Rs moving too far right?" is just as valid a Q. — PolitiTweet.org