Nate Silver

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@thehowie @DKThomp Air travel still *slightly* down (~90% of 2019 levels) though I suspect if you broke it down, it's < for business travel but >= for personal travel. https://t.co/aU7tjKWKba — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@DKThomp I think the question is how well WFH holds up in the next recessionary environment. The data so far certainly indicates some degree of revealed preference, though the preference might be *strongest* among the management class. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@jaycaspiankang I'd have to run some numbers. I think if you did it algorithmically it would put a lot of emphasis on "defeating all-time great team" so you might get an answer like 2019 Raptors (ignoring KD injury). — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@jaycaspiankang I am very big on Celtics for... reasons. But I think it's an unusually tough R1 and R2 matchup but not necessarily that tough in R3 and R4. There are a bunch of very good teams but no true juggernaut in the league this year. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@jbarro Liberals* revealed preference is that they very much do like the Twitter status quo though, algorithm or otherwise. I think that's been one of the more interesting parts of this whole episode. * Not sure that's the right term but that's a different conversation. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@NormOrnstein Well not much about it is certain. But in a probabilistic sense some Republicans are a much bigger threat to undermine elections than others, and I don't see what is accomplished journalistically or politically by flattening those differences. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

In races like Pennsylvania, Democrats face a trade-off where there are radical Republican candidates like Mastriano who are much less likely to win, but also much more consequential if they do win, such as in possibly failing to certify future elections. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@johnhollinger I wish Twitter was around in 1993 so I could "Well, actually, it's not *that* bad an abomination against geography!" when people complained that the Braves were in the NL West. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Always been counterintuitive to me that Florida is southwest from New York rather than due south or southeast. Miami is further west than Buffalo. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Personally I would pay these operatives top dollar because you could have exceptionally effective messaging by doing the exact opposite of what they recommend. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@bendreyfuss Motorcycles have like 35x the risk per mile of cars! I'm sure it's fun and I don't begrudge humans for taking risks but it's one of the more superfluous risks to take! It is kind of insane to ride a motorcycle but not do indoor dining. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@BenjySarlin @janecoaston Maybe also though sports stars are relatively uncancellable? They have an extremely specific and highly measurable set of skills that only dozens of other human beings possess. And empirically teams will put up with a lot of misbehavior that's much worse than Bad Tweets. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I'm not immune from this by any means *at all* but basically people's function for what political stories they attend to is 80% what most annoys them and 20% what they actually think is most important. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@jbarro @drewheineman @xor The same Planned Parenthood post that the above screenshot comes from recommends that "pro-abortion" is preferable to "pro-choice". https://t.co/DolTtI3CMv https://t.co/gY5zphBfCW — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@thinkingpoker The language on the left has been used by pro-choice groups for years and public opinion is broadly on their side, at least when it comes to Roe being overturned. So it's more accessible in the sense of being more familiar. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The language on the left is going to be a lot more accessible to the average voter and phrases like "safe, legal and rare" were chosen for a reason. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

People conflate the questions of "how much content moderation should there be?" and "are current content moderation decisions biased?" (e.g. against conservatives). The debate might be (marginally) more constructive if folks tried to disaggregate those questions. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

It's like playing a soccer match a man down. The situation isn't *completely* hopeless; sometimes you can generate a semblance of something. But whatever you do exposes vulnerability and there are a lot more ways to fail than to succeed—and you'll often look silly in the process. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I'm not saying that Dems are *good* at political strategy. The party has made some bad choices. But given that Republicans can win Senate & Electoral College majorities with <50% of the vote, Ds are fighting an uphill battle and that should probably factor more into assessments. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I'm sort of convinced that the boom/bubble in speculative investments had partly to do with the enduring boredom/anxiety of COVID and COVID restrictions. BTC first peaks in Mar. 21 when vaccines become widely available, then again Nov. 21 amid max concern about new variants. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@SethPartnow USA -4½ in playoffs, -2½ in regular season. World might have more WAR on the roster but very imbalanced toward bigs. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@conorsen @mattyglesias "Major league city" is a pretty robust heuristic I think. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias Publicly-funded sports stadiums classicly have very poor economic returns but I wonder if they have decently high social returns. Like, if the Bills leave Buffalo, there's less Hanging Out to do there (not just going to games but also watching on TV with friends). — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I wish there were better ways to measure how much coverage the media gives to different storylines or topics (there are *some* ways, they're just not great) because I suspect claims made about how much the media is covering topic X are bullshit a large percentage of the time. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Although it's not my job to tell people what to do with their money, it's probably the case that a lot of donor money is VERY badly spent on high-profile races where it makes little difference at the margin. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Although it's not my job to tell people what to do with their money, it's probably the case that lot of donor money is VERY badly spent on high-profile races where it makes little difference at the margin. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

One small change we'll be making to our Congressional forecasts this year is to weigh in-state fundraising more than out-of-state fundraising. Raising money from donors out of state isn't very predictive of electoral outcomes, whereas in-state money *is* fairly predictive. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@Noahpinion Relatedly it ranks 193rd out of 210 US metros in interest in sports. https://t.co/XifZGg4IHG — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@thehowie Yeah. That phrase always trips me up... — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

One can strongly agree in principle with the idea of "delegate more authority to the legislative branch" but it's hard to understate how much of an advantage the U.S. Senate conveys to some voters (rural, white) over others. https://t.co/0OejJ4P9TA https://t.co/JMIkxj3Rrq — PolitiTweet.org