Nate Silver

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@dr_ilardi Yeah, most of the work I've done on this is in baseball, but there are definitely nonlinearities, e.g. going from 30 wins to 40 doesn't increase long-term revenues much but 50 (lose first or second round) to 60 (title contender) certainly does. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@dr_ilardi If you assume that playoff success is about equally important to long-term franchise value than regular-season success, then multiply playoff games by 14x because there are about 14 regular season games for every playoff game. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias I mean the stereotype is that smoking in the US tends to occur among disadvantaged groups with poor healthcare access and outcomes whereas it's more widespread among the upper-middle class in Europe. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @ThisWeekABC: “Even though Republicans only need to gain a net of one seat in the Senate, our model thinks the chance of that is only ab… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I don't mean "get a life" in the sense of necessarily going out barhopping or to parties or whatever but some of you seriously need some hobbies other than posting on Twitter. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@MattZeitlin Yeah I would say this is consistent with a rather pessimistic medium-term outlook on the future of American democracy. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@smotus There has been polling showing his popularity holding up pretty well, and he clearly is doing something right to get elected as a Democrat in WV. Maybe the message could be "you're going to lose anyway so go down in a blaze of glory". But I think he is pretty rational. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@smotus Sinema is a narcissist but Manchin is acting out of electoral self interest. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@zeynep Yeah, I think clearly you have to attribute some "credit" to McConnell & GOP state legislative leaders for being willing to play Constitutional hardball. But even there, it's not totally clear how exogenous that is from the design of the system. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@zeynep I mean it seems pretty relevant to know how the fire started. Maybe more relevant to preventing the next fire than putting out the current one, though. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Unpopular (?) opinion: Despite the various, very serious threats to American democracy, things would *mostly* be fine if the balance of elected power more closely reflected the popular will (e.g. Senate seats proportional to population, no Electoral College, less gerrymandering). — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Like it's cool in some sense to have Michigan in the same conference as UCLA, but probably they'll be in different divisions and play once every 3-4 years. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I'm not sure I understand the point of 20+ team conferences for football leagues when a team plays only 8 or 9 conference games per year. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@conorsen LA is an outlier in some ways but in general has more Mainstream America credentials than the Pacific Coast north of Monterey or so. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Big Ten can get to 270 by adding Universities of Arizona, Colorado, Kansas, North Carolina, Oregon, Utah, Virginia and Washington (all AAU schools) to become a 24-team conference. https://t.co/jS9a9ots82 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Big news, puts the Big Ten back ahead of the SEC in electoral votes. https://t.co/mDQoTbVXC3 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Well, it's probably because there's a Democrat in the White House, and Ds/allies perceive critiques of the COVID response as politically detrimental. If the GOP takes over the House next year one thing you can be pretty sure of is COVID panels/investigations. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

And here's my overview. Basically: the political environment is quite bad for Dems, but the GOP has enough bad candidates (inexperienced, scandal-plagued, 1/6 endorser, views outside mainstream) to keep D hopes alive in the Senate & some key gov races. https://t.co/8pXjNo4s5c — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @galendruke: The 2022 midterms forecast is live! @NateSilver538 and I try to answer any questions you might have on the first 2022 midt… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Our forecast is out! Republicans are heavy favorites to win the House, but the Senate is a toss-up. https://t.co/0uJ8ZXlWSq https://t.co/i2yrMQA6ls — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Abortion is probably an issue where there is a rather direct electoral impact: having 50 Democratic senators in 2023 is a lot different than 48, or 52 for that matter, for the future of abortion policy. So it's one where the case for a "popularist" approach is relatively strong. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@paulg Yeah this is like "what are the surprises I should look for?", not a well-formulated question. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Midterms model coming soon; think one of the topline numbers might surprise people a bit. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Also no offense to Offit & Moore but this seems like a pretty naive view of how people are responding to the pandemic at this stage. Even in blue cities like New York, few people are doing much if anything to reduce their infection risk. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@SavagePoker I don't think you should try to police what people are doing on their phones in between hands but there should be much stricter enforcement of not being on a device while having a live hand. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I'm glad I'm not Garland and I don't have to make this decision but I'm kind of getting there too. It'd be one thing if there were some clear utilitarian case against prosecuting Trump but it seems more like "consequences hard to predict and fraught with peril either way". — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I barely use email tbh and this might be the thing to get me to swear off it for good. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

How'd we get to the point where articles labeled as "fact checks" are almost always not about the facts themselves and instead are about whether the facts are surrounded by the right context or vibes? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

On any trip longer than about 6 days, the first day of the trip feels like it was months ago, much longer ago than the last day before the trip. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias I would not have guessed that Canada has the 8th largest economy in the world. https://t.co/Nrp4VSlEKH — PolitiTweet.org