Nate Silver

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

One reason I'm skeptical: Chicago's growth & sustainability has always stemmed in large part from being the leading city of its region. It attracts a lot of intra-Midwest migration. Even if the overall region suffers from WFH, not sure Chicago's *relative* status changes much. https://t.co/1gXlf9grSo — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@Taniel I think if you sound them out "AYE" takes a few milliseconds longer tbh. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

What's interesting about the "how much did Biden accomplish?" debate is that he might have quite a few bipartisan accomplishments but few on a pure party-line basis. Then again, that's what you'd probably expect with only 50 Democrats in the Senate. https://t.co/ChgVkMJd2v — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

In principle, 22% of House Republicans voted for it, House Republicans are more conservative than Senate Republicans, and if 22% of Senate Republicans also voted for it, it would get 61 votes. In practice, I have no idea. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@Noahpinion *EFD — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@Noahpinion That's giving way too much credit to EFG who is a garden-variety clout-chaser who has done a lot of damage to public health. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@Kevmath I think the WSOP (and other poker festivals) have figured out how to have a pretty robust schedule post-Main, it seems pretty good where it is now. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@JustinWolfers @jasonfurman I was into Pret before it was cool as an LSE student in 1999/2000, just would much prefer the UK menu to what they offer in the US! — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@JustinWolfers @jasonfurman Their sandwiches in the US suck (compared to the UK at least) and another chain with tastier sandwiches would be a welfare improvement. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

It also risks taking a narrower, effective message (GOP attacks on e.g. abortion choice and voting rights are quite unpopular) and repalcing it with a huge attack surface that begs voters to consider whether Democrats are the "party of freedom", a framing voters may think is BS. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Claims about political messaging often suffer from Goodhart's Law ("once a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure"). "Freedom" polls well, but once you start just calling everything in your agenda "freedom", it will muddy the definition and it won't anymore. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Pfeiffer's a smart guy but I don't understand how any of this has anything to do with "freedom". Half the agenda items would restrict freedom for some supposedly greater cause! https://t.co/fCWOCLnbkT https://t.co/q7kINm5Ypr — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

This doesn't seem like too much of a mystery. People are on edge about mass shootings for understandable reasons and people have phones and call or text one another or check social media so panic can spread quickly. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@kdrum @sullydish Yes, I think one can indeed argue that public health bureaucracies across the world are systematically too risk-averse and too concerned about covering their asses, in ways that results in lots of unnecessary disease & death, and that COVID/ monkeypox have helped to expose that. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@kdrum @sullydish Kevin, I'm not sure people are suggesting there's some *unusual* level of incompetence. On the contrary, the critique is that the *usual* level of competence is far too low and that FDA procedures serve to fulfill bureaucratic incentives rather than public health. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@JamesSurowiecki Yeah, it's amazing how much the left-left and the center-left blame one another for conservative polices they both dislike like instead of blaming conservatives. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@RichardHanania I assume that policies in settings like universities reflect the preferences of staff and parents, in that order, more so than students. With that caveat aside, I'd expect that having extremely zealous COVID policies is fairly popular in those communities. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@PatrickRuffini Because lots of factors in the model are specific to one candidate. It's not designed to deal with "generic" candidates for whom we don't have fundraising or polling data, etc. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Probably true: I don't think COVID is likely to affect e.g. the midterms much. But that's partly because COVID policies, including the lack of meaningful restrictions now, ultimately were pretty responsive to public opinion (as well they should be in a democracy, I'd argue). — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

There are lots of good reasons to critique Twitter as a platform but mostly the problem is with the people who use Twitter and not the platform. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

This is misinformation. We don't predict primary outcomes just somewhat randomly guess based on which candidates are leading in polls and fundraising etc. Would appreciate if you delete and apologize for promoting disinfo. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias I think you could argue that the left in general suffers from an exceptionally poor understanding of public opinion. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@KeithOlbermann @natesilver Really enjoying your new show, Keith! Keep up the great work. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The professional incentives of campaign operatives probably encourage pleasing different constituencies with a multifaceted message and otherwise overcomplicating things, so "keep it simple & focused" may well be good advice if you actually care about winning>career advancement. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Interesting thread and one question if Fetterman wins (only about a ~50% chance) is whether this *particular* issue is a good one for Fetterman or rather whether it's a smart strategy *in general* to have one or at most two core messages instead of a grabbag. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@jdickerson It's been 18 years, but I'm still mad at Guy Who Asked Me To Hold His Coffee While He Took The Last Space In The Overhead Bin. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

"Actually Democrats are doing great... but the GOP is dominating THE NARRATIVE!" is a campaign thesis designed to appeal to about 220 Extremely Online weirdos on Twitter who have "strategic comms" in their bios, and approximately nobody else. https://t.co/ulXHyl1zSZ — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@henryolsenEPPC Yes, but I busted out of my tournament and then my phone died so went back to my hotel room to chill out just before the rumors started. Feel pretty fortunate tbh. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

At the very minimum, you ought to be able to walk the Strip at ground level without having to pass through casinos or up/down overpasses and ramps. I can't think of another place where there are so many pedestrians but conditions are so pedestrian-unfriendly. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I have been on the Las Vegas Strip a few times when pedestrians were so bottlenecked that I was literally stuck in human traffic and unable to move. A big problem if there's e.g. a medical emergency. And a huge f'in nightmare if there's a panic or stampede. — PolitiTweet.org