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Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Polls have been pretty good in the first two nomination contests, at least compared to the (fairly low bar to clear… https://t.co/wngtyBtFeh — PolitiTweet.org
Ariel Edwards-Levy @aedwardslevy
Very gratified by the lack of necessity for a Why Polls Got It Wrong In New Hampshire piece tomorrow.
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Nevada's gonna be interesting. It's not obvious who's strong other than Sanders there, but... https://t.co/CnxLlcHQa6 — PolitiTweet.org
Jon Ralston @RalstonReports
On the evening he emerges with momentum from NH, Bernie is nuked in Nevada by Culinary with flyers in Spanish and E… https://t.co/Y3z2R7YNK2
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
ABC (my network) and NBC have called the New Hampshire primary for Bernie Sanders. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
A delegate tie looks very likely. https://t.co/G6a1g785Wt — PolitiTweet.org
Decision Desk HQ @DecisionDeskHQ
While we wait for more results, we have preliminary delegate numbers that seem unlikely to change. Sanders 9 Butt… https://t.co/CKunwFJp4z
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
So apparently the candidate in 3rd place is a bigger story than the candidate in 2nd place, who in turn is a bigger… https://t.co/kbq2JO0Ay0 — PolitiTweet.org
Trip Gabriel @tripgabriel
No. 1 story of the night: @amyklobuchar No. 2 story of the night (so far): @PeteButtigieg coming closer to @BernieSanders than expected.
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@CahnEmily Now 2.3 points per DDHQ https://t.co/ruDW0dUfKK — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@CahnEmily Imagine imagine if after the debacle in Iowa, Sanders is leading all night and then Buttigieg pulls ahea… https://t.co/99n3LFNpu7 — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Decision Desk HQ, which has the most updated count, has Bernie's lead down to 2.7 points over Buttigieg. https://t.co/MI7HFRnHYo — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Upshot Needle has Bernie with only 55% a chance of winning NH, whereas betting markets have him with a 90% chance.… https://t.co/nU2Bflh8rq — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Deleting a tweet about Steyer as I'm seeing contradictory things about his intentions going forward — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
RT @friscojosh: Nate says he is going to go looking for late momentum in the model and now I'm questioning everything https://t.co/83GdkY4… — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
RT @lbronner: According to my model the race in NH is a closer than it looks right now. Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar have a long tail o… — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Welp. https://t.co/HpqhoUQcbZ — PolitiTweet.org
Zeke Miller @ZekeJMiller
MANCHESTER, N.H. (AP) — Colorado Sen. Michael Bennet ends 2020 Democratic presidential bid after pinning campaign's hopes on New Hampshire.
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Michael Bennet is getting 0.3 percent of the vote so far tonight, and Deval Patrick is getting 0.4 percent. One mig… https://t.co/J7gBD5rr51 — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
If Klobuchar is really going to get a surge out of a 3rd place finish (assuming that's where she ends up), somethin… https://t.co/yWDxof8cKR — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Barring a comeback by Buttigieg or Klobuchar, this is setting up to be an awfully nice night for Bernie. https://t.co/ERsBnByzz7 — PolitiTweet.org
Will Jordan @williamjordann
Best case scenario in NH for Bernie national odds, per 538 analysis/model 1 Bernie 2 Klobuchar 3 Buttigieg Next b… https://t.co/9yKzfzY2yU
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
I know a Sanders win is somewhat priced in, but I'm not sure why the story is about who finishes in 2nd and 3rd pla… https://t.co/9nzMmxB7WO — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
RT @gelliottmorris: From the results I'm seeing, turnout in NH looks a little lower or on par with 2016 — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
538ers are on the ground literally and/or figuratively in New Hampshire, and we've got our ELECTION NIGHT LIVEBLOG… https://t.co/1a8h5BgfqM — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Seems relevant. Polls are still open and young people tend to vote late. https://t.co/FWODpXvOYj — PolitiTweet.org
Ariel Edwards-Levy @aedwardslevy
It's surprisingly hard to search for four-year-old tweets, but per this one, it looks like the Dem exit polls in 20… https://t.co/4RJzQJStza
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Like if you predicted more than 1 or 2 of these, more power to you. I certainly didn't, and I don't think there was… https://t.co/96Tan4tAvR — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@conorsen Well, she did pretty well in IA and beat her polling averages there. But didn't get a bounce, even though… https://t.co/z6okwRw2FF — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
I'd note that outside of Bernie/Pete rising a bit and Biden falling after IA, which is in line with what you'd expect given the results there, none of the polling shifts in this primary have been super predictable. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
That's fair enough, I guess... the media always loves the candidate on the rise. But maybe the biggest flaw in medi… https://t.co/8SIbBPzsVk — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
It's at least partially cause they seem him on an upward trajectory and her flat or downward. https://t.co/mfzlg2rRTY
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@IChotiner The model is pricing in that she'll likely be somewhere between 3rd and 5th tonight and it has her chanc… https://t.co/X3t4vnqkPg — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
It's worth reflecting on the fact that Warren and Bloomberg are in about the same position in national polls, but t… https://t.co/OEwvr0epa4 — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Nothing about this Warren memo seems wildly off, although they probably need to update their Bloomberg projections… https://t.co/TMeWYwSUDS — PolitiTweet.org
Shane Goldmacher @ShaneGoldmacher
NEWS w/ @AsteadWesley: A new Warren memo outlines her rivals’ flaws and her path to Super Tuesday and beyond Lots… https://t.co/pfYibKdqxL
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
(Currently Sanders + Warren have a combined 36 percent in national polls, whereas Biden + Bloomberg + Buttigieg + K… https://t.co/Pzu4ymbUZg — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
One of the funny things about this primary is that right at the moment (obviously things can/will change) both "Ber… https://t.co/moBzqovBmG — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Finally, note that NH historically only produces bounces that are about half as large as IA. (NV and SC are likely… https://t.co/txIOPmuCZs — PolitiTweet.org
