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Nate Silver @NateSilver538
But I'm surprised at how many Dem elites and elected officials have thrown their weight behind him when he hasn't b… https://t.co/Ac8R64HMuT — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
In the past, candidates who started late (think Fred Thompson) have had a notoriously poor track record, although t… https://t.co/DxVLUr9C7u — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
I don't think we know what happens when one candidate (Bloomberg) starts ~6-9 months later than everyone else and h… https://t.co/k8i2OCx10u — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
UCL chances with change over past 5 days Liverpool 100% (-) Leicester 98% (+7%) 📈 Chelsea 65% (+17%) 📈 Tottenham… https://t.co/WmrmpAfapq — PolitiTweet.org
Tony Chow @Tonyhkchow
Well well well look at that... https://t.co/QiFL2PdpIR https://t.co/PF9ZmjfPua
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@hezaproject @jbview Because he has a legacy to protect and it could get embarrassing? We find that candidates who… https://t.co/gaKEAWD6SH — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
RT @FiveThirtyEight: There haven't been any big polling bounces since New Hampshire. That means Biden hasn't exactly collapsed. https://t.c… — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Empirically, a key factor in whether someone drops out is whether they're rising or falling in polls. So someone wh… https://t.co/NAt6iyknpH — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
To be more precise, here are the chances are model estimates of each candidate dropping out *before* South Carolina… https://t.co/L96gYUzxtx — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Conditional on remaining in the race, Biden is probably the favorite in SC. But his decision on whether to stay or… https://t.co/SAeSd3hTwm — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
It's important to note that our forecast accounts for the possibility of candidates dropping out. e.g., we actually… https://t.co/7lddZ9iQ9U — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
RT @PatrickRuffini: Happy to do an SC poll for anyone who wants to sponsor since we got it within 1% last time on the GOP side — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
RT @galendruke: What is @amyklobuchar's favorite statistic? I asked her: https://t.co/kg4Q8YwJQq — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
The conventional wisdom is so negative on Biden that there's a good case for buying low (especially given his fairl… https://t.co/7PmO76HHxG — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
RT @FiveThirtyEight: Post-New Hampshire, "no one" is on the rise. https://t.co/zQW9NCNEDp — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@HeerJeet Was pretty close in NH where the last series of polls were quite bad for him. More of an underperformance… https://t.co/8y9b4hpZSY — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@conorsen Yeah, that was dumb to include him. And probably hurts Biden a bit. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
In the first post-NH polls in each state, out today, Biden has placed 2nd in Nevada and 1st in SC. Obviously there… https://t.co/4bLaG4XIvs — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Post-NH South Carolina poll! Biden 28% Sanders 20% Steyer 14% Buttigieg 8% Amy Klobuchar 7% Elizabeth Warren 7%… https://t.co/owqh2o0EXV — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@JADubin5 Yeah, I think that's a good comparison. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@JADubin5 It's hard to say. I think there maybe is some evidence for the notion that a slightly larger chunk of the… https://t.co/MDmoeOaAeb — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
...versus several of these opponents. Bloomberg being his main opponent would really play into a lot of Sanders's m… https://t.co/axsuHVKKR9 — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
And, sure, if you want to get more detailed, I'm in the "it's complicated" camp on this stuff. For instance, if But… https://t.co/viCJyLqiMA — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
One reason to be optimistic about Bernie is that he could easily win a one-on-one race even if it gets to that poin… https://t.co/RzNUSIDGnP — PolitiTweet.org
Political Polls @Politics_Polls
#National Democratic Primary, Head-2-Head: Sanders 54% (+21) Klobuchar 33% . Sanders 54% (+17) Buttigieg 37% . Sand… https://t.co/YIPAcVQLhd
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@cwarzel Yeah it's definitely all connected. And the Bloomberg people are pretty smart about how to earn their earn… https://t.co/5Bu8nd4AWe — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
I'm a big fan of @cwarzel but I feel as though this sort of article never gives the media enough agency for its cov… https://t.co/9jwZe6wkda — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@PatrickRuffini He didn't drop out until a few weeks after NH. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@PatrickRuffini Clinton got a decently big NH bounce and you can see it in that chart. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
The new LaGuardia terminal is so much nicer than the rest of LaGuardia as to be literally disorienting (you think you're in another airport/city). — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Notwithstanding all of the above, Nevada uses the 15% viability threshold in individual precincts, like Iowa did, w… https://t.co/wsBOqfuIN9 — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Also polls have undecided voters so someone polling at 14% probably projects to get like 15-16% of the actual vote… https://t.co/N0tqvops5Q — PolitiTweet.org
