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Nate Silver @NateSilver538
"Pretty different" encompasses a lot of different scenarios, ranging from cases where we wind up with a Bernie/Bide… https://t.co/zdZ1imVcOv — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
I dunno whether the conventional wisdom is overrating or (still) underrating Bernie's chances (maybe it's properly… https://t.co/ETsVyMMWtD — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
RT @FiveThirtyEight: Bernie Sanders is the front-runner. https://t.co/4gP032urVK — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
While Bernie is still slightly under 50% to get a delegate *majority*, he's now up to 69% to get a delegate *plurality*. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Just turned the model back on with NV results + new polls. Good for Bernie, obviously! Neutral (but leaning tow… https://t.co/EY1mc7o0FB — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Still only 2 post-debate polls in here (and no post-Nevada polls) so those effects (likely bad for Bloomberg and go… https://t.co/cNBluoWFeD — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Biden (16.1), Bloomberg (16.0), Warren (12.9) all hovering right near the 15% threshold required to collect delegat… https://t.co/qMcEuKygiB — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Some truth in this but the Bloomberg boomlet after he finished in 0th place is worse than the Klob boomlet after sh… https://t.co/4HmEDX9ifk — PolitiTweet.org
Adam Wren @adamwren
The Klobuchar boomlet reporting feels like some of the most irresponsible stuff of the cycle.
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Think I wrote an article a few years ago saying hockey wouldn't work in Vegas and boy was that wrong. Really good c… https://t.co/3xGb2qzxDk — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@HeerJeet Plausible. And (low bar to clear) but it was maybe Biden's sharpest debate too. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
This isn't a great night for "Biden problems were obvious all along" takes IMO. He looks like he's gonna beat his p… https://t.co/L4OCap5j4h — PolitiTweet.org
Steve Kornacki @SteveKornacki
So I guess to spell it out a little more, what I mean is a potentially similar trajectory -- a universally known, b… https://t.co/w7Qbfsusjz
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Here's where we stand after Nevada: https://t.co/aP88JS95E7 — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Welp, Nevada Democrats reported results too slowly for me to late-register for this poker tournament I was hoping t… https://t.co/cSKRChNIrs — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
What if we wind up with a Sanders-Biden face-off after all, which had seemed like the most likely outcome pre-Iowa?… https://t.co/e5WGjGIKHx — PolitiTweet.org
Nathaniel Rakich @baseballot
The state party just shot up to 237 precincts reporting county delegate numbers. It's now Sanders 44%, Biden 25%, B… https://t.co/HlYUOm8qUd
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
* It's a big drop-off after that. Biden probably has the next-best chance of a majority, especially if he finishes… https://t.co/uYWPtiAnVu — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
So: * Sanders 50/50ish to win a pledged delegate majority. * "No majority" still a fairly likely outcome, although… https://t.co/MEt6TMvbuo — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Since results are so slow to come in, it may be a while before we can turn the model back on, but these first two s… https://t.co/0MCdL09tXD — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
The basic takeaway here is that it's Bernie's nomination to lose. Exactly how big his margin is in Nevada, who finishes 2nd, etc., may tell us something about precisely how likely he is to lose it, and who is most likely to take it away from him. But it's his race to lose. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
RT @rickklein: Based on out analysis of the vote in so far, @ABC News projects that Sanders will win the Nevada Caucuses — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
All this means is that polls + assumptions about how the 15% viability threshold would work were probably fairly ac… https://t.co/tYICyIn1aS — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
It's early but here is NV's officially reported final- alignment vote so far: Sanders 39% Buttigieg 19 Biden 18 Wa… https://t.co/P2yYZc6tQa — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@JamesSurowiecki @yeselson I think the causality isn't entirely clear there. Biden propped up by more money, a bett… https://t.co/I4Sl7O6L4q — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@yeselson I dunno, I think Bloomberg has made Biden's life a lot tougher. Probably knocked him down several points… https://t.co/vtuh0Ihbg1 — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Edison has quite a lot more votes in than AP so is probably more reliable at this point. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Edison (used by e.g. ABC News and CNN) has Sanders at 35% of the first-alignment vote so far, vs. 43% for AP (used… https://t.co/ZhCfFPow1D — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
I tried to cut-and-paste CNN's results page into Excel and look at what happened. https://t.co/VCYM1iSRnx — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Steyer getting only 9% of the first-alignment vote so far in both the AP and the Edison counts should not exactly i… https://t.co/xo20vLa8P3 — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Sanders has run a really smart campaign so not to take anything away from him, but Bloomberg's presence has also be… https://t.co/HJcrOasiT4 — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Remember when there was that debate a few days ago and folks went after the candidate in second or third place. That was something.
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
RT @awprokop: To correct a misconception I'm seeing out there: If a candidate fails to clear the 15% viability threshold in a precinct on… — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
We're liveblogging the Nevada caucuses. Here is the link where you can find the liveblog. https://t.co/BTv4T6sm7D — PolitiTweet.org
