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Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Bloomberg's projected vote share by state. Note that he's quite close to the 15% delegate threshold in a lot of pla… https://t.co/4uHEt8vEvW — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@joshtpm @BuzzFeedBen Yeah that too. "You only have the delegate lead because of caucuses" or "you only have the de… https://t.co/ZRiCA0X2GZ — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@BuzzFeedBen Yeah, only something like 4% of delegates this year are assigned in caucuses. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
And another big, longstanding issue that was pertinent last night is that polls have a long record of misgauging th… https://t.co/FlJAfXak2N — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
The big issue is that it's going to be hard/impossible to get reliable post-South Carolina data by Super Tuesday. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Actually, although there were definitely issues with some SC polls last night, one poll (Starboard Communcations) e… https://t.co/O1xvlsz5Ks — PolitiTweet.org
Neera Tanden @neeratanden
Just a note on polls. No poll has Biden’s victory margin last night. None. No poll has accurately had the final vot… https://t.co/eyCpht2BBj
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Reporters should ask the candidates what should happen if one candidate has a plurality of delegates but another on… https://t.co/7p51E3YaKV — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
5 hypothesis about what's going on right now. (With the primary, that is.) https://t.co/88yqq1sOAD — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
RT @FiveThirtyEight: Depending on why you think Biden won in South Carolina, Sanders could have real reason to worry. https://t.co/jeIR96g… — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
ME—Sanders 67%, Biden 12%, Bloomberg 9%, Warren 6%, Buttigieg 6% VT—Sanders >99% AS—Sanders 36%, Biden 30%, Bloomberg 20%, Warren 8% — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
CO—Sanders 85%, Biden 6%, Warren 5% TN—Biden 61%, Sanders 24%, Bloomberg 12% AL—Biden 78%, Bloomberg 11%, Sanders 1… https://t.co/hcj0hEAG4I — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
OK, Super Tuesday win probabilities. Then I'll go to bed. CA—Sanders 96% TX—Biden 51%, Sanders 42%, Bloomberg 7% N… https://t.co/4byoRHQ74O — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
UPDATED Super Tuesday win probabilities, where you can see the impact of Biden's good polling in SC & other Souther… https://t.co/Q4Xbf…
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
It wasn't hard to see that Bloomberg had the *potential* to flop. Wasn't hard to see that momentum often reverses i… https://t.co/y2fEG21uOC — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
It wasn't hard to see that Biden, even in his diminished state, still had one of the 2 broadest coalitions along wi… https://t.co/Kzz7IMWHAW — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
The problem with campaign coverage is that the press does analysis but doesn't take it seriously and kind of sucks… https://t.co/dO0bjyMVCI — PolitiTweet.org
James Oliphant @jamesoliphant
I feel the same way about baseball, btw. Another thing I loved but has almost been ruined by relentless analysis.
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@joshtpm I think the race broke quickly but also the local polls (of which Starboard is one) seemed to do a better… https://t.co/ZPGTYnwJnV — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
If you want to make polls better as a news consumer, you should give them grief when they're way off on the margin… https://t.co/8FqGPUyIJ0 — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@joshtpm Yeah, I'd mostly look at the margin. Everybody's going to pick up a few votes from undecideds. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
What happened with Obama in 2008, Clinton in 2016 and now Biden in SC in 2020 is that they won by *much* larger mar… https://t.co/uWLUfdja6V — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Yeah, those were fine. And Trafalgar (Biden +21) was close enough. Others need to take a deeper look. Polls have be… https://t.co/rvM4C9MD3b — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Monmouth's poll showing Biden +20 was taken before Clyburn endorsed. So was Clemson's that had Biden up by over 15.… https://t.co/gH8D1Dh2Zn
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Nope, Starboard Communications got the result almost exactly right (Biden +28). Some of our competitors excluded it… https://t.co/1g0sB2SF1c — PolitiTweet.org
Josh Marshall @joshtpm
@NateSilver538 have been wondering about. Think the closest poll missed by ten points?
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Although some SC polls were pretty good, others conducted over the past few days underestimated Biden's performanc… https://t.co/0vyP8jIaH5 — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Sanders has significant support among black voters but he is not winning the black vote nationally. He lost it narr… https://t.co/f58h3rc4yk — PolitiTweet.org
Ryan Grim @ryangrim
.@maddow: "If Sanders continues to underperform systematically with black voters, and if we see him get shellacked.… https://t.co/qtwgwysqx0
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
RT @micahcohen: The #SouthCarolinaPrimary @538politics Podcast. https://t.co/JkcEWecRtC — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
A big design flaw is having Super Tuesday (35% of all delegates!) so close to SC. If you had, say, Michigan next we… https://t.co/ToVdnKZkBq — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
To some extent it can also be a self-fulfilling prophecy. Any of Pete, Klob, Bloomberg and Warren can tell themselv… https://t.co/ovmREUMIJ7 — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
There are a *lot* of outcomes where you have what would ordinarily be a fairly traditional Biden vs. Sanders one-on… https://t.co/RSr2oFigwJ — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Again, though, the potential "Biden finally emerges as the clear moderate-lane alternative to Sanders" dynamic is a… https://t.co/LFMEdu40Bg — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
As a final point, Sanders entered tonight 12 points ahead of Biden in our national poll average. It seems to be ass… https://t.co/uTV9Uqu9fr — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
That is, voters will behave more tactically than the model assumes and move toward the top 2 candidates, making "no majority" a bit less likely than it says. Unfortunately, there's not a lot of time for polling between now and Tuesday so tbh we may not know a ton until then. — PolitiTweet.org
