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Nate Silver @NateSilver538
The 538 model is FROZEN for Super Tuesday. https://t.co/wexC09mzYE — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
The good news for Sanders is most of the evidence also suggests he can still run pretty evenly against Biden in a 1… https://t.co/tk7iE6jPb4 — PolitiTweet.org
Matthew Yglesias @mattyglesias
Way back in April 2019 @IsaacDovere wrote about the Sanders campaign’s conviction that it could triumph with ~30% s… https://t.co/8Qt22OhaQz
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@PatrickRuffini Generally speaking, the shifts our model sees before the conventional wisdom (i.e. sharply toward B… https://t.co/4Fis2IFxLG — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
RT @chrishanretty: Epidemiologists/public health peeps: please accept producers' requests to go on media to discuss #COVID19 , even if it's… — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@mattyglesias @jonathanchait Our research shows that "expectations" are mostly formulated based on the status of th… https://t.co/E1RkFqpSXB — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
One way to look at it: Biden basically got an Iowa-scale bounce out of South Carolina + the winnowing/endorsements. https://t.co/ThzMkc45Lo — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Here's the shift in the Sanders/Biden margin Data for Progress data from now compared to post-NV: CO +24 S to +14 S… https://t.co/S4yCYCQ4Ru
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@DataProgress @swayable Keep in mind that even these new polls aren't really recent enough to account for Biden's s… https://t.co/8gamOpHpD0 — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@DataProgress @swayable In most states, we're showing 3 or 4 candidates >=15%, meaning that they'd receive statewid… https://t.co/XIx4UVpjKl — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@DataProgress @swayable Interestingly, the projected *winners* in individual states have barely changed. Biden favo… https://t.co/VbGhMc8M5Q — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@DataProgress @swayable With that said, there is a *lot* of uncertainty here, in both directions. Also, the polls h… https://t.co/MQAG0TqPdP — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
We just 2 polls in from *every* Super Tuesday state from a) @DataProgress and b) @swayable. The polls are quite g… https://t.co/1ZP4d39Kbl — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
As a counter, pretty good numbers for Bernie in Maine (though with Biden safely over the delegate threshold there) https://t.co/vSF9kjyNeS — PolitiTweet.org
Change Research @ChangePolls
Maine Democratic Primary Poll March 1-2 (n=507): Sanders 43% Biden 24% Warren 16% Bloomberg 10%
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
I guess you can say: VA always seemed a better Biden state than polls showed, there are a lot of high-info tactical… https://t.co/j5c9Soe22q — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
There are a LOT of parallels between Biden this year after South Carolina and Kerry in 2004 after Iowa. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
AtlasIntel also with Biden +14 in Virginia. https://t.co/k0FkXFKHvt — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
So this is the first fully post-South Carolina poll we've seen in a Super Tuesday state, from a pollster that gener… https://t.co/b0Jde1k2Az — PolitiTweet.org
Change Research @ChangePolls
Virginia Democratic Primary Poll March 1-2 (n=510): Biden 45% Sanders 25% Warren 13% Bloomberg 10% Klobuchar 4%*… https://t.co/yEH1LmruEY
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@conorsen I can imagine how there will be a whole new set of conventional wisdom tropes based on n=1 if Biden wins,… https://t.co/dWBJK3aF9v — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Whenever I've tried to look at this stuff (see article below for an example) 2-3 day media cycles around a single s… https://t.co/NzeAdjYZ9j — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
One question was whether the 3-day interval between South Carolina and Super Tuesday was too short for some type of… https://t.co/PjUtkfBa2h — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Free media >> paid media, ironically, is one of the lessons that the media never seems to learn. https://t.co/Lis3CBgGYo — PolitiTweet.org
Tim Alberta @TimAlberta
This 72-hour stretch has got to be the Free Media Bonanza to end all Free Media Bonanzas. Joe Biden might not be… https://t.co/69A3cnNHXI
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
FWIW we will freeze the model at 930am Eastern tomorrow. Would prefer earlier... but there's so little post-SC poll… https://t.co/sKed8kDc3i — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@gelliottmorris LOL I've got way too much to do! We'll do an after-action review post Virgin Islands. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@gelliottmorris Yeah I think the model has done a really nice job. It always liked Biden and Bernie and was always… https://t.co/xtGvSnNT1A — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@joshtpm One fun scenario is that Biden has a very good night tomorrow but then Bernie makes a huge comeback win in… https://t.co/MYpEq2m34o — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
The only national poll post-SC had just a 3-point Sanders lead, and that was before Buttigieg and Klobuchar quit. B… https://t.co/Wh0UXS2psF — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Yes, there are a lot of assumptions here, about Biden's SC bounce and the effect of the Buttigieg and Klobuchar wit… https://t.co/37oGr1UWzK — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Biden and Sanders are now ~tied in our forecast. https://t.co/JDz2dZ8bqR https://t.co/bE06cPOaX6 — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Bernie is likely to do well very very well in California. But Biden is now likely to get >=15% everywhere, and mayb… https://t.co/dming2dg9k — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Biden has gained 7 points in our California polling average in two days. This is not using any sort of prior about… https://t.co/YSo5Q8uCPH — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
RT @galendruke: The podcast is up! We ask pressing questions like... "What's at stake on Super Tuesday?" And... "Samoa: were the cookies… — PolitiTweet.org
