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Nate Silver @NateSilver538
We researched this yesterday and the quick version of the answer is that polling volatility predicts future volatil… https://t.co/P2G5H9QkuQ — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Forecast today. I promise. First half of the day, probably. We wanted to look at one more thing before we published… https://t.co/onMr7bQw5p — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
We're now going to be reverting the results-based projections partway to the poll-based projections so they align b… https://t.co/su2Uh16rKW
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
About 26% of the delegates are set to be awarded over the next 19 days, in states that in the aggregate are fairly poor for Sanders. And he's heading into these contests with what's probably something like a 7-point deficit in national polls, quite possibly worse. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
FWIW, here's what our demography + geography model thinks are the best contests for Bernie remaining 1) New Mexico… https://t.co/lOHqakDQYf — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Biden won the only Midwestern state on Tuesday by quite a lot (9 points in Minnesota). He won Oklahoma, which is ki… https://t.co/9wpF6Puq2B — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Bernie can win Michigan but unlike in 2016 it's not clear that it's an above-average state for him demographically.… https://t.co/0D8qLgOeUE — PolitiTweet.org
Matthew Yglesias @mattyglesias
Having been victimized once by the logic of “Bernie will lose Michigan because he is down in the polls there” I wil… https://t.co/IJkHfRomjr
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Biden winning in places he wasn't supposed to (ME, MN) makes it hard to know where Sanders is on firm ground right… https://t.co/gf0Isy6CgU — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
It's not easy to see how Sanders wins Michigan unless something changes (which it could). Biden crushed in Minnesot… https://t.co/7y29M0hTsz
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
We're now going to be reverting the results-based projections partway to the poll-based projections so they align b… https://t.co/su2Uh16rKW — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Why is Biden outperforming his polls an issue? To simplify a bit, the demographic projections we use in states with… https://t.co/qJh0cE1Jt7 — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Model will likely be back up later today/tonight. FWIW, we've been dealing with a few different things. Some borin… https://t.co/zWkCdHKzFl — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
In retrospect, the resistance Warren faced in October/November once she came to be perceived as a frontrunner shoul… https://t.co/3tTtVp2ZWC — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
RT @Tonyhkchow: 🚨EMERGENCY POD🚨 The 538 crew gathers (remotely) to discuss after Sen. Warren suspended her presidential campaign. https:/… — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@dmorey Surely sports coverage is more rational than that. Suppose, hypothetically, that a team lost in 7 games in… https://t.co/YKdEHwguli — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Rick Perry. Jeb! Rudy. John Glenn. Phil Gramm. Joe Lieberman. Lots of folks who completely failed to launch — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Even if we're limiting this to candidates with high expectations going in, in this race alone there were a lot of m… https://t.co/JhGKpVCDvy — PolitiTweet.org
Tim Alberta @TimAlberta
I’m struggling to think, in the sweep of modern presidential campaigns, of a more underachieving candidate than War… https://t.co/6XcKeFWjQn
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Yeah, this too. I thought Bernie's high favorables were a really good argument against the "Bernie has a ceiling" c… https://t.co/buaEYPWwFR — PolitiTweet.org
Andrew Prokop @awprokop
And many pointed to Bernie's high favorability ratings among Dem voters as evidence that they'd flock to him after… https://t.co/tIBM99OZnr
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Micro-observation: Favorability ratings don't seem to predict actual voter behavior very well. Warren had great fa… https://t.co/SKkKuVCiJC — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
ALL BETHS ARE OFF https://t.co/xgnAlKj36K — PolitiTweet.org
Ariel Edwards-Levy @aedwardslevy
WARREN PEACES
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Everyone calling it a 2-candidate race. Seems like a lot of TULSI ERASURE. This is not a serious tweet. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
The answer to No. 1 is "not necessarily!". The only thing that caused people to desert Biden so far was his losing… https://t.co/saGlAEPW30 — PolitiTweet.org
David Byler @databyler
so questions i have suppose biden does or says something dumb in classic biden fashion in the next few weeks 1)… https://t.co/FSH6TwLmcd
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@MattGrossmann @FHQ No, we assume statewide delegates will be reallocated per the DNC's rules. Though note that dis… https://t.co/r6OlppkPhS — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Elected officials stampeding to Biden, who has more endorsement points (192) in the past 2 weeks than Warren (103)… https://t.co/HkLXWdwqIw — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
The 2020 Democratic primary is *so* *crazy* that (it's hard to believe this actually happened!!!) the candiates who… https://t.co/NeINTjX1Ce — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Primary model update tomorrow, not tonight. More coding work than we thought and we'd like to see one more night of… https://t.co/0nlK2Z6qgf — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
In politics (and other things too) it's pretty challenging to pivot when you go from being perceived as an underdog… https://t.co/4S8ImmyLaq — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@thecity2 @RichardYannow Yeah it is pretty hard to generalize. There are empirical ways to determine how aggressive… https://t.co/rL1TThdZoo — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
In presidential primaries, for instance, literally something like 50x more information is revealed on Super Tuesday… https://t.co/vDckGWfYv2 — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
People intuitively like forecasts/trendlines that change slowly and smoothly, but that's not what the real world is… https://t.co/hj9adpoLyu — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
3) Also, while I want to look at this in more detail, at first glance it seems like the remaining big-delegate stat… https://t.co/01C4cG9zi7 — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Can the momentum in the Democratic race shift again? Well, yes, obviously!! But: 1) Biden's delegate lead may be… https://t.co/d2wwCp5lZH — PolitiTweet.org
