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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

What happens is that even in this scenario ^^^ Bernie still falls about 100 more delegates *behind* Biden over the next 2 weeks. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted March 10, 2020 Hibernated
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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Let's run through a great scenario for Bernie * Bernie WINS MICHIGAN and beats his forecasts in other states by a… https://t.co/EMx2qKdAP4 — PolitiTweet.org

Posted March 10, 2020 Hibernated
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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @SaraMZiegler: Hey, hey -- it's our **live Sloan show**!! At #SSAC20, @NateSilver538 joined me and @Neil_Paine to talk RAPTOR, our extre… — PolitiTweet.org

Posted March 10, 2020 Retweet Hibernated
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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

In 2016, there was a fairly significant, Michigan-specific, late surge of Google search interest in Sanders, someth… https://t.co/tRmruL5V2j — PolitiTweet.org

Posted March 10, 2020 Hibernated
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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The candidates could also have chosen to say "sure, M4A *sounds* great, but it's never going to pass in the next Co… https://t.co/WZw1ge6GOI — PolitiTweet.org

Posted March 10, 2020 Hibernated
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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Ehh. Democratic voters care a **lot** about health care, and the candidates put a lot of emphasis on their health c… https://t.co/FXeg4H8UqF — PolitiTweet.org

Tim Alberta @TimAlberta

Every reporter who covers presidential campaigns should be required to have covered Congress as a prerequisite. We… https://t.co/E4g9OVrIoJ

Posted March 10, 2020 Hibernated
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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Biden now with more endorsement points since South Carolina was decided (315) than before then (295). https://t.co/gOZT46mEd9 — PolitiTweet.org

Posted March 10, 2020 Hibernated
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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@TheStalwart Underwhelming? If the market rises by 2.2% every trading day then we're headed to Dow 500,000 by the end of the year. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted March 10, 2020 Hibernated
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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Bloomberg has fallen behind Warren as more states (especially CA) count late-returned ballots. Biden will probably… https://t.co/MEo8dlQWfg — PolitiTweet.org

Posted March 10, 2020 Hibernated
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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Here are our delegate counts reflecting results *as currently reported* in all states and reallocating statewide de… https://t.co/o6i9u0PAW8 — PolitiTweet.org

Posted March 10, 2020 Hibernated
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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Keep in mind that Biden is ahead by 17-20 nationally. So expecting a margin somewhere in that range might be the de… https://t.co/iDh3XUWJKo — PolitiTweet.org

Posted March 10, 2020 Hibernated
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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Our demographic model, which is calibrated off of actual results, polls from other states, and national polls, show… https://t.co/kqqeVvANR5 — PolitiTweet.org

Posted March 10, 2020 Hibernated
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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Also, what to think about Michigan, where the polls show Biden ahead by 23 points, about the same margin that Clint… https://t.co/F7Lh3IrfnM — PolitiTweet.org

Posted March 10, 2020 Hibernated
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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The clock has struck 9am and our forecast is frozen. Sanders has to hope that the polls are quite wrong. They show… https://t.co/zQU383J1qh — PolitiTweet.org

Posted March 10, 2020 Hibernated
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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

There are not really any examples of successful comebacks in primaries after Super Tuesday (or the equivalent point… https://t.co/WueawpYhKf — PolitiTweet.org

Posted March 10, 2020 Hibernated
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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@thecity2 It's hard to know but there is a debate on Sunday and then 4 major primaries on Tuesday 3/17. I'd think i… https://t.co/QPCgqapQk4 — PolitiTweet.org

Posted March 10, 2020 Hibernated
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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@CitizenCohn People from Michigan are too busy being awesome to answer polls probably. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted March 10, 2020 Hibernated
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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

There is... a lot of disagreement here. But Michigan's been a notoriously tough state to poll and I'd rather have disagreement than herding. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted March 10, 2020 Hibernated
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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Welp I guess people weren't chicken to poll Michigan after all LOL. Here are all polls in the past 48 hours: Biden… https://t.co/52VaNGcbut — PolitiTweet.org

Posted March 10, 2020 Hibernated
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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

What's interesting in the latest batch? Relatively good poll for Bernie in Michigan (-8 vs. Biden) via AtlasIntel.… https://t.co/xveBfc8xm2 — PolitiTweet.org

Posted March 10, 2020 Hibernated
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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

More polls trickling in. We will freeze the model at 9am tomorrow. https://t.co/asODhCvz4n — PolitiTweet.org

Posted March 10, 2020 Hibernated
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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @katierosman: SH_T’S G_ TT_ _G R_ _ _ https://t.co/o6VUPGFdF1 — PolitiTweet.org

Posted March 10, 2020 Retweet Hibernated
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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

One other nontrivial problem for Sanders is that Florida and Arizona have a *lot* of early voting, so even if he we… https://t.co/sEAVSn4K6z — PolitiTweet.org

Posted March 10, 2020 Hibernated
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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @SeanMcElwee: @NateSilver538 Between SC and ST we had him gaining roughly a point every three hours. We knew our ST was going to slightl… — PolitiTweet.org

Posted March 10, 2020 Retweet Hibernated
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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@ForecasterEnten @PollsterPatrick I think Washington is probably the toughest. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted March 10, 2020 Hibernated
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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

THIS IS DEMOCRATS ABROAD ERASURE https://t.co/TAQvsi9vAp — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

There's a legit shot Biden goes 6 for 6 tmrw. https://t.co/EMZgZvhExz

Posted March 10, 2020 Hibernated
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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The West is clearly Sanders's strength but he may have lost quite a few California counties if not for early voting… https://t.co/szq3hCCyLs — PolitiTweet.org

Matt Pearce 🦅 @mattdpearce

I notice one geography that is less robust. https://t.co/7eX8IlY6Lu

Posted March 10, 2020 Hibernated
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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Wrote about this last year and sort of forgot about it, but maybe 25 percent of Sanders's vote in 2016 was based on… https://t.co/8AF5dXPepK — PolitiTweet.org

Posted March 10, 2020 Hibernated
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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I know this has been remarked upon, but Biden's Super Tuesday was really quite geographically robust, winning acros… https://t.co/iAdszh3Fs7 — PolitiTweet.org

Posted March 10, 2020 Hibernated
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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Other gains in the ~30 point range: Gary Hart in 1984 after New Hampshire and Dukakis late in the 1988 race as a bu… https://t.co/6srtekDhyU — PolitiTweet.org

Posted March 10, 2020 Hibernated