Nate Silver

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Yeah agree. States need to be planning to hold November elections while COVID-19 is potentially still a significant… https://t.co/zeMwFMft9S — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@asymmetricinfo @DLeonhardt Yeah that 1% figure is dubious and shouldn't be cited IMO. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Not the most important thing but in theory this could change the number of delegates that Louisiana gets. (There is… https://t.co/5NQx051TTY — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Louisiana primary rescheduled for June 20. This will probably not be the only postponement. https://t.co/XhlESObxUS — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I slightly worry that some of the headlines contribute to a sense of fatalism, when the real message is more like "… https://t.co/YQppEujGKZ — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

It's important to keep in mind that many of these models describe projections *without* changes in behavior. This i… https://t.co/rvc6NOG0bb — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Also, the effects will come in waves. The social distancing may feel like a snow day for the first day or two. It i… https://t.co/HoJ959gEOK — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

There are a lot of things that could happen but the enormity of the consequences are sort of literally just dawning… https://t.co/eMcH6GGntF — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I'm in the high-risk zone for having adjacent, sophomoric knowledge myself (know statistics, have written about epi… https://t.co/A9alO7tTed — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

This is not unique to coronavirus, but it feels like the people who know the *most* about something often express m… https://t.co/KS3NFOjme1 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @davelozo: In global disaster movies, there’s always a scientist who’s like, WE HAVE TO ACT NOW OR PEOPLE WILL DIE and some government g… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Yeah I know everything is insane right now but Trump not getting tested is one of the most insane things. https://t.co/Muybv1VhVE — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Not surprising to see Biden get a further bounce post Michigan but this is now an even bigger deficit that Sanders… https://t.co/xyrm0yaHsp — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @juruwolfe: Hey! The @FiveThirtyEight viz team is looking to compile some best practices around how to responsibly visualize Coronavirus… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

If Biden keeps winning primaries by landslide margins, he's liable to feel less and less inclined to reach out to t… https://t.co/K3uENDidJa — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@DougPolkPoker @haralabob @newarknjpoker @MikeMcDonald89 When does the WSOP start? I think things getting cancelled… https://t.co/stbMSkyv11 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

You can lose Texas and still have a winning Democratic coalition. You can lose Michigan and still have a winning co… https://t.co/XFSEmSs8o1 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

So that's a net swing of ~17% toward Biden. If ~45% of returns were not counted on election night, Biden would even… https://t.co/4GJcXFwX3g — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Haven't looked at *every* county in Washington but I've looked at a lot: On average, Biden is doing 22-24% better… https://t.co/l0zFPT4c26 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

It's hard to imagine Sanders hanging on in Washington with this big a Biden margin in the new wave of votes. https://t.co/YolYzLfQDP — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

At least that's a sign the study is good! I read some Australian study the other day where the best case and worst… https://t.co/aRK3MxSn7E — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @galendruke: Some late night podcasting about yesterday's results: https://t.co/p4ODBq2mJt — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Party MFing Decides MFers https://t.co/wwIIfSc0N9 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @FiveThirtyEight: At this point, it would likely require something highly out of the ordinary to happen for Biden to lose the nomination… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I'd take "more states allow voting by mail" in the category of societal changes that might stick around post-coronavirus, more so than a lot of the things people are predicting. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Last night's results looked a lot like that for Biden although we'll know more next week. Possible that Democratic voters say "let's get this over with, let's deal with this public health emergency, let's get ready for November". — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

One thing about primaries is that voters will usually let you know when they want them to be over. A good example is Trump in late April/early May 16 when he started winning his strong states by humongous margins while also winning states (e.g. IN) that he wasn't supposed to win. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

After seeing ND, we did make a small change in how we're handling party-run primaries, which also take place in AK,… https://t.co/VMTdC1OlUH — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The model is back on, but since it was already very confident in Biden you won't notice much difference. https://t.co/JDz2dZ8bqR — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

In WA, we assume Biden will slightly gain ground in returns that have not yet been counted. For Democrats Abroad,… https://t.co/uXamdIhOEr — PolitiTweet.org