Nate Silver

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@NateDuncanNBA Most of my last 20 follows are coronavirus-related (plus a few random pollsters and elections people… https://t.co/9b8WwJnaCp — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

We've reached the point where you have to be more wary of Coronavirus Twitter. It's become more of a free-for-all… https://t.co/phcVKeLEnI — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The Democratic primary isn't competitive. Gonna be spending my time getting a head start on our general election model, and maybe experiment with a reported column on coronavirus. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@trvrb Great, thank you. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @trvrb: @NateSilver538 This will be true for all tests run in a centralized lab (these will be RT-PCR assays). There is a push for rapid… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @trvrb: @NateSilver538 Molecular RT-PCR assays used for COVID-19 (as well as flu etc…) are highly specific, generally around 99% (when l… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@trvrb Dumb question: So does that hold for all commonly-used COVID-19 tests? Or just certain types of tests? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I am guessing this is a tabulation error but if not, heartening to see some Bennetmentum. https://t.co/U7G8wbJMlm https://t.co/BcOwVMuRrB — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @FiveThirtyEight: ABC News is projecting that Biden will win the Illinois primary. https://t.co/QB91T3FeHa — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Now a bunch of suburban Cook Co. just came in, and Sanders losing badly there. Also fell slightly behind in Chicago… https://t.co/tEbSK38kB3 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Sanders actually (narrowly) winning in Chicago so far. Nothing in yet from suburban Cook County. https://t.co/RwlyxKUxCb — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@ForecasterEnten This coming from the guy who thought HILLARY CLINTON would be the Democratic nominee in 2016. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @rickklein: Not a surprise, but... ABC News projects that with the Illinois projected win, President Donald Trump is now the presumptive… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Biden's currently on pace to net something like 105 delegates out of Florida. https://t.co/QHT4oXLDWs — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Obviously there are ways it could help Bernie too, if older people do stay away. I'd just say... overall the effect… https://t.co/aBzb62iYcF — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

One other dynamic here: if coronavirus reduces Election day turnout, that means early/absentee voting is a larger s… https://t.co/M0Cs82ww5L — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

We're liveblogging the 4... err 3... primaries tonight. https://t.co/1DE4sezCPK — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

e.g. in the Marist poll today, 35% of voters 45+ say they are very concerned about coronavirus, versus 24% of under… https://t.co/qxwgH4LS01 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

One thing I'd be a little careful about here is that polls seem to find that older people are more concerned about… https://t.co/ckmdNcGvlx — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

There are radically different estimates floating around for how many COVID-19 cases are asymptomatic (not just initially but throughout the duration), and one thing that seems important that I haven't seen discussed so much is what is the *false positive* rate for COVID-19 tests. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@SeanTrende @AdairBlackmore It's very doubtful that 100k claim is true and if it is it has implications that aren't… https://t.co/FuCq3qoFcr — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Also "ICU capacity exceeded in Italy" is a sign that even the best-case scenarios are bad enough that a shutdown is… https://t.co/mQGOZdylL2 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Also, the US has been lucky not to face the pandemics that Asia has faced or even particularly severe flu seasons r… https://t.co/u0svtivqv0 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I agree and "reducing credibility for when the *next* pandemic hits" is one of the bigger costs if the best-case sc… https://t.co/Dir69glhrd — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The key is that policymakers need to be flexible and evidence-driven. We'll know a lot more in 3 weeks than we know… https://t.co/XMDac9p2ea — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

In the best-case scenario, where coronavirus is less contagious and/or deadly than feared, the shutdown is harmful on balance, but probably an order of magnitude less so than it's helpful under the middle-case and worst-case scenarios. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

In the middle-case scenario, where coronavirus is very challenging but a bit more manageable, a few weeks buys us a… https://t.co/fgYdP6ukXQ — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

In the worst-case scenario, where COVID-19 is largely unmanageable until we develop a vaccine, it's going to be rou… https://t.co/ALNHowzDsb — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Yeah, even as someone who's sympathetic to the idea that there's a wide range of uncertainty in the long-term coron… https://t.co/oQJUIbkIDj — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

If the number of positives *as a share of total tests* declines (e.g. 9% of tests are coming up positive when 12% w… https://t.co/QtQm4wsKvp — PolitiTweet.org