Nate Silver

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias @Noahpinion I sort of wonder about the inverse of this: perhaps it's not that there aren't enough jobs for "humanities types", but that there are *many* jobs outside of the Academy for "quant types" (e.g. tech, finance) which has various effects on the output of the Academy and its politics. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@chrislhayes @LPDonovan @NickRiccardi From a policy realist perspective I mostly agree. But inviting the comparison to "undesirable" recipients of PPP sends the opposite message. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@LPDonovan @NickRiccardi Right, and even the liberals who are mad at me about this critique aren't saying the WH message is an effective way to sell the student loan program, just that it's an effective dunk on GOP hypocrisy. Which, I agree I guess, but suggests the WH has skewed messaging priorities. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@helaineolen @NickRiccardi There is a lot of general negative sentiment toward PPP from the left in my feed now, along with other people saying PPP was mostly good. So I think the messages are pretty mixed. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@MarkHarrisNYC @chrislhayes @NickRiccardi Right, it seems like a good way of pointing out that these people are hypocrites. It doesn't seem like a good way to sell student loan relief as being a good policy, which is something the WH should probably be concerned with now as public opinion is still being formulated. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@trcrev @NickRiccardi @Nanisimo Right, but in pointing that they're hypocrites, you're conceding that student loan relief is a moral hazard and unfair. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@sporkyreeve @chrislhayes @NickRiccardi I understand the intended message. But you have to have a lot of political knowledge to grok the intended message and the mis-intended messages aren't flattering to student loan relief. Also, there isn't great message discipline; there *have* been some all-purpose attacks on PPP. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@chrislhayes @NickRiccardi Right but the average person, if they're scrolling Twitter, will likely take away the implication that bad person got PPP, thus PPP was an unjustified giveaway. I think it's a clever Twitter dunk that won't persuade anyone persuadable. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@NickRiccardi Also, liberals seem to be trying to claim both that student loan relief is analogous to PPP and that PPP is bad, which would imply that student loan relief is also bad. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@SeanTrende Honestly if something *isn’t* off (especially for sample sizes <=800 or so) that's a little suspicious. Sometimes a sign of undisclosed data massaging. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

There are basically 5 no-brainers: Notre Dame, Oregon, Washington, UNC, Florida State. (Assumption at this point is that the B1G has totally given up on caring about geographic proximity to original members.) After that, things get trickier. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Something a little different for you today, a very deep dive on where the Big Ten should expand (from a Midwesterner who's still bitter about Rutgers): https://t.co/cV4kHJEIa0 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@joshtpm @BrendanNyhan Likewise, and I agree with your analysis very often, Josh! So yeah this has been frustrating. Have a good night. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@joshtpm @BrendanNyhan If you dispute 3b then we probably could both have had a more enjoyable night by not engaging in this conversation. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@joshtpm @BrendanNyhan I've gotten into enough rabbit holes already that I'm not really looking to engage here in an evaluation of individual public health experts. There are several people on the list I have a lot of respect for and several I consider total hacks. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@joshtpm @BrendanNyhan OK. I'm sure as heck not to get in a debate about the merit of any particular expert or lack thereof. But this is a fairly partisan group, yes with some exceptions. And the people who were most active in the campaign, e.g. most oft-quoted in the media, tended to be more partisan. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@joshtpm @BrendanNyhan Sure there was a tug-of-war. My claims are 1) the "delay" side *won* the war 2) this was bad for public welfare 3a) some on the delay side were motivated by electoral politics to some degree 3b) our prior should be that some public health elites have strong partisan motivations. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@joshtpm @BrendanNyhan You're aware of the Sept. 25 letter descibed here? It's a bunch of liberal public health elites (Not sure how else to describe them! Most are active on Twitter and not many Republican!) urging no trial results be published "through at least late November". https://t.co/jVzUeOlbXM — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@joshtpm @BrendanNyhan There is direct evidence. Pfizer changed (delayed) its original protocols as a result of a pressure campaign and then published its results on literally the first possible working day after the election outcome was determined. https://t.co/PDmtAxdmre — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@joshtpm @BrendanNyhan You understand that Pfizer *changed* its originally published protocols as a result of a pressure campaign from mostly D-aligned public health elites? That is a well-reported fact that most people aren't aware of. https://t.co/PDmtAxdmre — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@joshtpm @BrendanNyhan It's hard to argue with someone who has observed the behavior of public health folks for the past 3 years, not all or most of them but *many* of them especially the ones most active in the press, and not concluded they have a high propensity toward partisan motivated reasoning. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@joshtpm @BrendanNyhan It's jhard to argue with someone who has observed the behavior of public health folks for the past 3 years, not all or most of them but *many* of them especially the ones most active in the press, and not concluded they have a high propensity toward partisan motivated reasoning. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@joshtpm @BrendanNyhan Speeding approvals was the right move from the standpoint of improving public welfare. Was it also politically convenient for Trump? Sure, but Operation Warp Speed was a major, life-saving policy success. And seeking to delay the vaccines was also politically motivated. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@BrendanNyhan @joshtpm It was already pretty bad when Kamala Harris implied that a Trump vaccine would be rushed. That did not exactly help public confidence and was clearly politically motivated. https://t.co/qf1nCe06P7 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@BrendanNyhan @joshtpm Where is the evidence that it would have harmed confidence? Whereas there was a very *direct* benefit from getting the vaccine in people's arms sooner? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@joshtpm I'm not going to share incomplete reporting but if your prior is that public health elites aren't capable of behaving in a partisan way, particularly the exact public health elites who were engaged in the push with Pfizer, I'm not sure it's worth us having this conversation. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@joshtpm I don't know for sure but yes the implication is that it may have been politically motivated in whole or in part. Especially given the people making the push, who tend to be strong D partisans. It's a story that deserves more reporting and I've done some poking around myself. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Also, the late 2020 push from liberal public health elites that persuaded Pfizer to *change* its original protocols - and had the convenient side-effect of delaying any vaccine announcement until after the election - deserves more scrutiny. https://t.co/1v3ueTNqur — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

"Trump pushed for vaccine approvals too fast" is the worst possible critique of the Trump administration's COVID policy. That probably saved a lot of lives. If anything approval should have been faster. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@DinoStraciatela Maybe in the short run, but in the long run, political parties benefit from "locking in" certain interest groups, and this is the sort of substantively important win for D-aligned voters that could help keep them locked in. That's the theory, anyway. — PolitiTweet.org