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Nate Silver @NateSilver538
It's partly people being discharged but gross new hospitalizations have also declined substantially from their peak. https://t.co/VV2PRjFl0c — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
First net decline in total hospitalizations for New York State today. https://t.co/XLCTf2ZhPb — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@BenjySarlin @SeanTrende Yeah, and I worry about how most of the calls for *extremely* extended social distancing are likely to come from the knowledge-sector tier and that's both a) likely a pretty Democratic-leaning group and b) also the tier that isn't facing as many problems as the other tiers. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
RT @angie_rasmussen: I spoke with @KaleighRogers @FiveThirtyEight about why #SARSCoV2 #HCoV19 #COVID19 #coronavirus is a pandemic when SARS… — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@SeanTrende Yeah, unpredictable supply chain bottlenecks seems like a valid concern. So do a lot of sociopolitical issues stemming from the fact that we sort of have a 3-tiered economy: (i) essential workers (ii) knowledge workers who can mostly work from home (iii) MANY unemployed folks. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
In certain ways, this should be slightly comforting to Democrats. Urbanization isn't intrinsically a disadvantage to them in the Electoral College. But they have been underperforming in states that are fairly urban, namely Texas, Florida, Arizona, and more recently, Pennsylvania. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Data from here. https://t.co/1tFbvumiRF — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Here's what the electoral map would look like if votes were determined solely by population density, measured by the average number of people that live within a 5 mile radius of you. https://t.co/JqrKLp0opZ — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
2. I think there is considerably uncertainty for how public sentiment will evolve, especially if/when fear wanes. But this cuts in both directions. It may be both harder to keep things off than we'd ideally want *and* harder to turn them back on. People will vote with their feet. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
1. I have been pleasantly surprised at how good people have been with keeping up social distancing so far. I know Twitter likes to point out outliers/exceptions, but I honestly think the very large majority of folks deserve a pat on the back. — PolitiTweet.org
Sean T at RCP @SeanTrende
Staying closed down until we have a vaccine might be the best or even only way to control the virus. But people ne… https://t.co/57yXyZAxyr
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
RT @FiveThirtyEight: Now that Democrats have settled on a presumptive nominee, the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast team discuss their prio… — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@emptywheel It has plenty, but Queens has plenty of everything, whereas Staten Island tends to really over-index on certain occupations. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Staten Island is not seeing the decline in positive test rates that you see in the other boroughs, or in the NYC suburbs. Could be a quirk but you have to wonder how much of that is because it has a lot of police and other essential workers. https://t.co/DfjeLTAsB1 — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
And if people are hyper-sensitive, that could mean a few things. They may be *more* conscientious about finding a way to vote safely. Or they could vote despite the risk, if they're angry enough—and probably more inclined to vote against the party that makes them take that risk. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
The consequences of the GOP (or Democrats for that matter) making it harder to vote during a pandemic are *at the very least* unpredictable. People are likely to be hyper-sensitive to these measures in a way they might not be ordinarily. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@JDVance1 @kmedved @SethS_D @CT_Bergstrom @DanRosenheck @SlaveaChankova @mlipsitch @DKThomp @PatrickRuffini… https://t.co/yLjl4ROqFu — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Why artificially good? Mondays are often slow as data can get backlogged on the weekend, and that's maybe especially likely to be the case after Easter Sunday. The last few Tuesdays have been bad days, conversely: the backlog finally gets processed & shows up in the numbers. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Likely an artificially good day* but FWIW via @COVID19Tracking: Newly-reported US deaths: Today: 1,450 Yesterday: 1,564 One week ago (4/6): 1,166 Newly-reported cases: T: 25K Y: 29K 4/6: 29K New tests: T: 129K Y: 140K 4/6: 149K Share of tests positive: T: 19% Y: 21% 4/5: 19% — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@DKarol @mattyglesias @conorsen Yeah one of the CT congressional districts is grouped with New York rather than New England there... — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@Crimealytics Given a ~2 week, maybe 3 week lag between infection and cases showing up in the data, the warmer weather in late March would be rather well-timed to a decline in new cases right about now. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@conorsen These are the correct regions IMO. https://t.co/DGS9bN9VBr — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Also, some of the "don't get people's hopes up about weather!" sentiment seems misguided even from a strategic communications standpoint, because it could lead to a case where things seem "surprisingly" good in the summer then come back with a vengeance in the fall. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
And that's also what most of the research seems to find. The headlines are often like "don't count on weather to kill coronavirus". But the research itself generally seems to find some effect, though one that's 1) uncertain and 2) very unlikely to be enough to stop it on its own. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
How to put this carefully: There are *many* uncertainties surrounding coronavirus *including* about weather. It seems like the uncertainties are greater if you do *not* assume that weather plays some role in why it spreads more/faster in some places than others. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
This is a much sharper slowdown in New Orleans than we've seen elsewhere and it doesn't *appear* to be a reflection of changes in testing alone. Louisiana-wide, the percentage of new tests reporting positive has declined a lot. https://t.co/byKhfFjHDB — PolitiTweet.org
Jeff Asher @Crimealytics
There were only 1,086 new cases reported in Orleans Parish over the last 7 days. That's a remarkable turnaround eve… https://t.co/JRGJWedqRf
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Share of tests that were reported positive in New York State: 4/12/20: 38% 4/5/20: 47% 3/29/20: 49% 3/22/20: 34% 3/15/20: 15% 3/8/20: 9% https://t.co/MtU6toy8TO — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Share of tests that were reported positive in New York State: 4/12/20:38% 4/5/20:47% 3/29/20:49% 3/22/20:34% 3/15/20:15% 3/8/20:9% https://t.co/MtU6toy8TO — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
"COVID-19 will deepen Americans' appreciation for federalism" is an unsexy prediction that is much more likely to b… https://t.co/FMMCwGc8lU — PolitiTweet.org
Matthew Yglesias @mattyglesias
Something I'm shifting my view on somewhat as we watch Covid-19 play out is federalism works better than I'd have t… https://t.co/MxUhglMJgC
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
RT @mayasweedler: The fabulous @ZachWeiner of SMBC illustrated @maggiekb1, @laurabronner and @jazzmyth's deep-dive into COVID-19 models and… — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
RT @friscojosh: This is rad https://t.co/rkp3GyYdYU — PolitiTweet.org
