Nate Silver

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Warm take: the Supreme Court is a political body that considers electoral implications in its jurisprudence, so the increasingly evident electoral backlash to Dobbs may factor into its future decision-making. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @onyxfish: Breaking my Twitter silence to share our latest *interactive* version of the FiveThirtyEight forecast. This is absolutely one… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Sometimes you make good choices. What a match from Serena. https://t.co/r7abH8hwSF — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Say what you will about New York as a spectator sports town but a late summer evening picking between DeGrom and Serena is fairly cool. https://t.co/jlaEINC0mU — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@MattZeitlin @NickRiccardi Yes but it was written by a New England who doesn't realize how weird New England is. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@NickRiccardi I like Provincetown but it's probably in the 99.99th percentile for being least representative of the US as a whole. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@kwcollins You're missing the point tbh. I'm saying that there are going to be conferences where 10% of people or more test positive and others where rates are at or below baseline and if you average them out you'll end up ~similar to baseline. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@kwcollins I think your instinct may be off because you're underestimating how much COVID exposure the average American has in the average day (I'd guess not necessarily less than an academic attending a conference with safety protocols). — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@kwcollins I'm saying I wonder if your claim would be true if you had an unbiased sample of all academic conferences. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@pescami @BenjySarlin @NickRiccardi @DKThomp @conorsen I agree that life expectancy calculations are kind of misleading in the context of a pandemic, but still this divergence has been emerging for the past 10-15 years. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@kwcollins The assertion is that the bias is occurring at the event level, not the individual level. An academic conference happens, it's uneventful and no one gets COVID, you don't tend to hear about it or recall it as much. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@BenjySarlin @NickRiccardi @DKThomp @conorsen Yeah, I don't know! The divergence seems to emerge at around the time of the Great Financial Crisis, and I'm not sure that the US's health care system has diverged more from the OECD's since that time; arguably it's been brought more into line by Obamacare. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@kwcollins I think that's liable to be a pretty biased sample, i.e. you don't hear much from people when they don't get COVID. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@kwcollins I think you're probably neglecting heterogeneity in transmission rates, i.e. superspreading. You're going to have some events where 20%+ of attendees get COVID and others where there's little transmission above and beyond population baseline levels. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@NickRiccardi @BenjySarlin @DKThomp @conorsen Yeah. And the US system has a LOT of veto points that tend to prevent it from undertaking paternalistic regulations, for better or worse. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@BenjySarlin @DKThomp @conorsen Certainly, it seems like so-called deaths of despair could be higher in an economic system that prioritizes growth over equality of outcomes. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@DKThomp @BenjySarlin @conorsen We're not falling behind them in other indicators, though? The opposite maybe? (i.e. US life expectancy started to diverge negatively at ~same time OCED GDP started to diverge negatively vs the US). My hot take is the US is more willing to trade off life years for economic gains. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

There's no "paradox" here. The large majority of the population is done with COVID precautions. It would be good to get them to take a booster, because they're not going to do much else. https://t.co/jEbG82CJQ1 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Interesting thread but also makes for a good prompt. What social or political events felt extremely significant in the moment but are largely forgotten about today? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

This doesn't make sense. Dems' polling numbers started to improve after the Dobbs decision. A lot has gone on since then including both partisan & bipartisan legislative "wins" and lower inflation. There's little polling yet to say what effect the student loan stuff will have. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@Neoavatara @nolesfan2011 @jasonfurman Yeah. To the extent there's a real political backlash outside of the pundit class, I'd expect it to come from people who didn't go to college, not people who did and then paid off their loans. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I'm generally wary of reading too much into financial allocation decisions but this is an interesting one. Without AZ it starts to get kind of tough for the GOP to take the Senate, especially if Democrats pick up a seat in PA as is fairly likely. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@jasonfurman I think the difference is that people would have made different financial decisions if they'd known debt relief was happening. So I can see people who paid off their debt in the last year or so being annoyed. But someone who paid it off 20 years ago? That seems a lot more petty. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Not sure I realized the extent to which the share of young people who go to college has stopped growing over the past 10 years. https://t.co/ryjh9Ca2Dh https://t.co/Io92aDbAZc — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@alexstamos @JeffreyASachs @mattyglesias @Noahpinion Yeah, very possible we'll see a local vs. national divide. The GOP as presently constructed has close to no chance in presidential or Congressional races with this cohort, but you can imagine a liberal city electing an extremely moderate Republican mayor. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@JeffreyASachs @mattyglesias @Noahpinion I think my assertion (I know a lot of this type of person IRL) is that this group is somewhat susceptible to being drawn out of the D base based on trends that have emerged fairly recently. Probably not by a Trumpy GOP though. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias @Noahpinion I guess I should have been more specific in that I think this group (which after all consists of a lot of white guys) isn't that "woke". They may be left-wing in other ways, e.g. pro-redistribution. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@alexstamos @mattyglesias @Noahpinion Yeah I was gonna use the phrase "Obama Dems"! I think they fit very comfortably into that coalition but if there's a clash between liberals and leftists within the "emerging" D coalition they may feel a bit lost. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias @Noahpinion The Coinbase data point is kind of interesting. 60 people left after the founder implemented a "no politics" rule (in practice aimed at left-wing politics) but that was only 5% of the company. Though, crypto is more right-leaning than other tech fields. https://t.co/It5xI0Y9R3 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias @Noahpinion I think that's a complicated proposition. Certainly a lot of tech & VC founders have shifted rightward, or at least been more willing to express those views, in the past few years. It doesn't necessarily follow that rank-and-file workers will follow suit but it wouldn't shock me. — PolitiTweet.org