Nate Silver

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Yeah my priors going in were that there would be less compliance with social distancing and other behaviors like mask-wearing. There's some inevitable media focus on the exceptions, but most people are doing a good job with these things. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @ABCPolitics: Candidates often try to select a running mate from a battleground state. “I don’t buy that Biden needs to pick a VP from… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @simonelandon: We put 1,000 names in the paper, 1 percent of those who have died. Online, we're emphasizing their stories. https://t.co/… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias Yeah, I don't get it. But narratives are powerful things. And the "it's New York, the West Coast, and southern states like Florida, Georgia and Texas where governors opened up too soon" narrative has been hard to shake even though none of those places are in the top 10 right now. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@joshtpm Yeah, these estimates say 15% of New York state and 27% of New York City was infected *at some point*, which happens to match the state's serology data pretty well. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@joshtpm Those who have an active infection, yeah. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Basically no correspondence between states that are actually having bad outbreaks and those that tend to be the subject of media coverage. The biggest problems right now are in dense-ish places in the Northeast (but no longer NY) and the Midwest. MS is a hotspot in the South. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The rest of the list: AL 0.5 MI 0.5 MO 0.5 NE 0.5 VA 0.5 ND 0.4 CA 0.3 FL 0.3 NV 0.3 SC 0.3 SD 0.3 KY 0.2 NC 0.2 TX 0.2 UT 0.2 WI 0.2 AR 0.1 KS 0.1 ME 0.1 OK 0.1 TN 0.1 VT 0.1 WA 0.1 WV 0.1 WY 0.1 AK <0.1 HI <0.1 ID <0.1 MT <0.1 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Here are all states where >0.5% of the population is currently infected with COVID-19, via https://t.co/Qxu8rSPoV1 RI 1.9% NJ 1.6 DC 1.5 IL 1.5 CT 1.4 MA 1.4 DE 1.2 MS 1.2 IN 1.1 PA 1.1 IA 1.0 MD 1.0 OH 0.8 AZ 0.7 CO 0.7 LA 0.7 MN 0.7 NM 0.7 NY 0.7 GA 0.6 NH 0.6 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Overall, this is a decent report. The 7-day average of deaths has fallen to ~1,200 from a peak of ~2,000. And NY state reported <100 deaths for the first time in a long while. The question is whether that progress will be sustained as distancing is relaxed, etc. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Important: Note that some states that had been lumping in antibody tests with viral tests are now separating them. This is good news; the data shouldn't have been lumped together in the first place. But, it will cause some fluctuations when this happens. https://t.co/1EOo3sJMZK — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

US daily numbers via @COVID19Tracking Newly reported deaths Today: 1,105 Yesterday: 1,261 One week ago (5/16): 1,286 Newly reported cases T: 21K Y: 24K 5/16: 25K Newly reported tests T: 366K Y: 394K 5/16: 353K Positive test rate T: 6% Y: 6% 5/16: 7% — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @thehowie: @NateSilver538 This is a thoughtful/accessible paper on possible outcomes for #Connecticut, depending on pace of re-opening.… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Here are some estimates of levels: how many people are *currently* infected. https://t.co/Qxu8rSPoV1 Sweden: 0.8% UK: 0.6 US: 0.5 Italy: 0.4 Canada: 0.3 France: 0.2 Spain: 0.2 Germany: 0.1 Maryland: 1.0% Iowa: 0.9 NYC: 0.7 Georgia: 0.6 California: 0.3 Florida: 0.3 Hawaii: <0.1 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Feel like there's a bit too much talk in the media about how much spread of COVID is growing or shrinking (R) and not enough about *levels*. Both are important. Sustaining a plateau (R=~1) can be a disaster if the level of cases is high. Or a pretty decent outcome if it's low. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @ScottGottliebMD: The bottom line analysis from the Korean CDC demonstrating that those testing positive for SARSCoV2 after recovering f… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@sImPLyDiGGsAGAi @thecity2 Awesome, thank you! — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@thecity2 I don't know, but some of the states that are encouraging people to get tested now (e.g. NYC) are the places that were harder hit before. Someone could calculate a positive test rate weighted by population or something; that might be interesting to look at. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@thecity2 I don't think we're actually at full testing capacity. Many states now have excess capacity and are encouraging people to get tested... — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Since deaths lag cases, one plausible and somewhat concerning interpretation is that we *were* making a fair bit of progress, but we've given some of that up as social distancing has been relaxed. It could also just be noise, though. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

So, the past couple of days have kind of been the reverse of a few weeks ago. Back then, we were seeing cases and *especially* the positive test % decline, but the deaths numbers were fairly flat. Now, it's the opposite. Deaths declining meaningfully. But cases more flat. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

US daily numbers via @COVID19Tracking Newly reported deaths Today: 1,261 Yesterday: 1,423 One week ago (5/15): 1,478 Newly reported cases T: 24K Y: 25K 5/15: 24K Newly reported tests T: 344K Y: 397K 5/15: 363K Positive test rate T: 7% Y: 6% 5/15: 7% — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@joshtpm @JamesSurowiecki The UK looks a lot like the US, with a slow decline but a big ramp-up in testing. Canada's data looks surprisingly similar to ours. France is a decent comp and not too flattering to the US, though. I'd say we're doing worse than our peer group, but maybe not drastically so. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@joshtpm @JamesSurowiecki It's hard to know what the right comp is, though. Spain and Italy got hit harder and the places here that got hit harder (namely, NYC and New Orleans) do look sorta like Spain and Italy, with a sharper drop. Germany always had their shit together in a way we never did. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@joshtpm @JamesSurowiecki I think we're both doing a somewhat worse job of social distancing than Europe and that testing explains a lot of it. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@joshtpm @JamesSurowiecki It looks a lot different than Italy to me. Their testing has basically not changed over the past month whereas ours has roughly doubled. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@gelliottmorris We buried the nowcast 30 miles beneath the earth's surface in the Mojave Desert where we thought no human being would ever find it again. And yet... it lives? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@gelliottmorris So you're saying it's a forecast? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Because COVID fell right on the heels of the Democratic primary and is the far more important story, we didn't get the usual array of recriminations and Thinkpieces™. But the complete failure of Twitter to understand Biden's appeal to normal voters is something to bear in mind. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@youyanggu @COVID19Tracking Yeah I'd imagine that's going to be more robust. Anyway, great work! — PolitiTweet.org