Nate Silver

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

But while deaths have been falling, what's happening to cases is more ambiguous. My guess is we have maybe 20 states where the situation is clearly getting better, 3-5 where it's getting worse, and another ~25 where it depends on how you construe the data. https://t.co/NJbGqNX00P — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

So... a positive milestone. This is the first time we've been under 1,000 deaths (albeit just barely: 995) on a day that didn't follow a weekend or holiday since April 1. Wednesdays have generally been pretty bad days, in fact. So that's good news. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

US daily numbers via @COVID19Tracking: Newly reported deaths Today: 995 Yesterday: 1,192 One week ago (5/27): 1,333 Newly reported cases T: 20K Y: 24K 5/27: 19K Newly reported tests T: 457K Y: 417K 5/27: 292K Positive test rate T: 4% Y: 6% 5/27: 7% — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

On a whim I decided to look up what the top news story was at this point (June 3 at 4:40 pm) exactly 4 years ago. https://t.co/bnWlbkxJE1 https://t.co/9BD5ykbz7f — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

To add to the complication, it's possible hospitalizations & death rates will be lower than before if new cases are primarily among younger people who are quicker to resume social activity. So it's plausible infections are growing but that deaths are declining in some states. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

But be wary of quick-and-dirty takes that don't look at the data as a whole. A lot of them are not very robust and, of course, people tend to construe the data in a way that matches their priors. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

If you carefully investigated each state, you could probably formulate a well-informed opinion as to what was really happening. And there are some states (e.g. NY) where all metrics are clearly getting better and a few (e.g. AZ) where they're all getting worse — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

If you poke around here you'll find quite a few states where different COVID metrics (cases, share of % tests, deaths, hospitalizations) point in different directions and/or the number of tests is fluctuating and it's not entirely obvious what's happening. https://t.co/xkR2zoS3AZ — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

This is usually contingent, though, on their financial circumstances going OK and basically being able to live life as normal. They may be forced to reassess when there are big disruptions. It's these people Trump should be worried about. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

But there are a lot of voters who, in ordinary times, are softly pro-Trump. They may not like his conduct. But they think "politics is silly", "both sides are so partisan", "this stuff is overblown". LOTS of people in this bucket and they are underrepresented on social media. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The protests perhaps slightly less so if you're not living in a major city, although there are also a lot of protests in smaller cities. But the images on TV will instantly remind Americans everywhere that "this is not normal". — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I know this seems like a super obvious point, but when assessing how voters evaluate Trump and where his approval ratings might go, it's perhaps important to note that both COVID and the protests involve profound disruptions to everyday life in a way that say impeachment didn't. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @Redistrict: I've seen enough. Rep. Steve King (R) has been defeated in #IA04. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Every de Blasio tweet is getting ratio'ed in a way that hasn't been seen since the halcyon days of the Howard Schultz campaign. https://t.co/V8YwtqSjoy — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Somewhat apart from the protests themselves, one wonders what coronavirus (temporarily) fading from the news—and less signaling about its importance from the media and other elites—will do to social distancing. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

In general then, this reflects recent patterns. Deaths are declining (this is the lowest total for a non-holiday Tuesday since 3/31) ... BUT the other metrics are in danger of slipping into a plateau after progress was made earlier. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

* I'm listing both the 1-week-ago and 2-weeks-ago numbers because last Tuesday was the day after Memorial Day, which significantly affected reporting patters (Tuesday's reports generally reflect Monday's data). So, 2 weeks ago is the most recent non-holiday comparison. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

US numbers via @COVID19Tracking: Newly reported deaths Today⁠—1,172 Yesterday—469 1 week ago (5/26)⁠—629 5/19⁠*—1,430 Newly reported cases T⁠—22K Y⁠—16K 5/26⁠⁠—16K 5/19—21K Newly reported tests T—401K Y—404K 5/26—302K 5/19—397K Positive test % T—5% Y—4% 5/26—5% 5/19—5% — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Trump's disapproval rating has been on the rise again, now up to 54%. There were some presidents with lower approval ratings to this point in their first terms, but no president had a higher *disapproval* rating than Trump now has. https://t.co/Vfmzd6B2ps https://t.co/X3qpeAwoAe — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

From campaign finance data, an estimate that 75-80% of police support Trump over Biden. https://t.co/17pxJsvJOy — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I cannot find a scientific poll showing Trump's support among police officers, by contrast. (Anybody seen one?). There are reasons to think it is likely quite high, however. https://t.co/fMLrzfWWCs — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

In case this is useful: Trump is actually rated fairly poorly (42% favorable, 50% unfavorable) by active-duty members of the military. https://t.co/cY7wKumabr — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

History would suggest that Trump will de-escalate only once his polls tank or the stock market does. Some early signs of the former, but the latter isn't happening yet. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I prefer approve/disapprove to excellent/good/fair/poor. But still, these are awful grades for Trump on his protest handling. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @perrybaconjr: This is hard to quantify or prove. But it seems like there are a lot of white people attending the protests about the dea… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @jayvanbavel: Researchers have spent 50 yrs studying how crowds of protesters & police behave. When police use escalating force — wearin… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@jbarro @michaelbd @DanFosterType I think perception of coronavirus risk can vary (and evolve with the evidence), but also that risk-tolerance/willingness to accept trade-offs may not have any one set equilibrium and can probably shift in fairly short order. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Not usually impressed by single-day fundraising stories but this is a lot of money for it being 5+ months to the election. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Relatedly, one of my favorite models has slightly lowered its estimate of the fatality rate in the US. That would be good news if it holds. We should hope to do a better job over time of protecting the most vulnerable and treating people who do get sick. https://t.co/hh9FqCpMns — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Also, the decline in cases is mostly concentrated in the northeast plus a few scattered rural states. *A lot of the country is still roughly at a plateau in new cases*, although the decline in deaths may be a bit more robust. https://t.co/oAQ2y08bJ5 — PolitiTweet.org