Nate Silver

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Welp it took longer than usual actually but I think we've reached the point where people on here aren't thinking clearly about the election so I'll probably keep my views on it mostly to 538 and not Twitter. Don't worry, I'll still have plenty of bad Tweets on other subjects tho. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

There's been around a dozen times this cycle where Democrats straight up lied about 538 forecasts. Personally I'd donate money to charity or to local races before I gave to lying Congressional candidates. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @galendruke: We got a little carried away at times today... The news stories are and aren't shaping the midterms in the final month w/… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@johnhollinger @haralabob Nah, she stares at her hand for a long time, pretty unlikely to have a misread in that situation in a huge all-in pot. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@joshtpm Yeah, IMO a great deal of the purpose of polling aggregation is in developing consistent standards, and while there's room to debate what those standards might be, it's lame and gutless to just give up on the problem and go totally ad-hoc. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

* fixed for grammar/typos, I don't have the edit button yet! — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

There are lots of things that might be said about this, none of them kind, but among other things it's self-defeating. If we get to the point where the polls suck so bad they can be predictably "unskewed", I'm going to find better ways to spend my time than run a polling website. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

There are a lot that might be said about this, none of them kind, but among other things it's self-defeating. If we get to the point where the polls suck so bad that they can be predictably "unskewed", I'm going to find better things to do with my time than run a polling website. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@JayCostTWS Yeah, I think the most amazing thing is how *efficiently* even minor or ambiguous expressions of wrongthink are punished. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@joshtpm Yeah that what's pretty hard to rationalize. People can boost or not boost, I'm pretty exhausted about judging anyone's choices at this point, but both polls and anecdotal evidence suggest a substantial % of people don't even know that the boosters are available. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@jackshafer About the same time that getting high got rebranded as "microdosing". — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@DanSmithHolla Yeah I guess that gets hard in MTTs. Agree with you in general that a shorter default (15 seconds for all non-AI preflop and flop spots?) with more time extensions would be a better equilibrium. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@DanSmithHolla Need chess clocks! But at the very least 15 seconds pre in unopened pots is a no-brainer. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

My deep dive into the Nevada U.S. Senate race, a tough hold for Democrats in a state that's not as blue as people tend to assume. https://t.co/18hvSnwpUp — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@RossBarkan I think there's a general failure to think at the margins and that has tended to be true in lots of messaging over the course of pandemic. I don't expect a huge benefit from the booster, but it's a way to hedge against some downside risks at a pretty low cost. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@SeanTrende I'm one of those people who somehow avoided Omicron (I had Delta last year) so that made my decision to get the booster easier. The numbers are *so* low, though, you'd expect higher uptake even if everyone who knowingly had COVID in the past few months skipped it. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@conorsen I think that's sort of compatible with my theory, though? IMO people are tuning out COVID news in part because it's pitched at people who are in the 98th percentile for propensity to take COVID precautions. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Also true at a societal level. The lack of funding for future pandemic preparedness, as well as long-term COVID planning (e.g. investment in next-gen vaccines), is a huge indictment of the intelligence of people in the U.S. government. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

It's crazy how low these numbers are. I guess my working theory is people are so burned out on COVID precautions that they're failing to do stuff that clearly *does* (at least for most people) pass a cost-benefit test. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @galendruke: Do political scandals still matter? Here's what the data -- and @NateSilver538 and @baseballot -- have to say: https://t.… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

There's going to be more tanking this season than in the Battle of Prokhorovka. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Usually, the answer to "Why do we keep making the same mistakes?" is that the author who poses the question is the one who keeps making the same mistakes by misunderstanding people's constraints, beliefs and revealed or expressed preferences. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@bendreyfuss No particular reason that I didn't mentioned statehood other than that I had a brain fart and it didn't occur to me when I was prepping for the show. Definitely agree that it could be on the table with 52/53. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Previous Insider Advantage poll had Walker +3, so this would suggest a shift after the scandal. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Not in reference to any particular thing but just a periodic mental-health reminder that some people on this website are completely deranged and that this is relatively uncorrelated with the number of followers/retweets/etc. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@darrenrovell You work for a gambling website and don't have a grasp of basic statistical concepts. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@darrenrovell If he does hit another home run though it's worth less. The expected value doesn't change. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@galendruke @conorsen I'm just imaging the discourse about how cool it was to be at a rooftop party when the warhead turned out to be a dud and safely landed in the East River. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@conorsen I don't have a super strong view other than that it's low enough that it isn't worth making any lifestyle changes now (e.g. spending less time in NYC) but high enough to monitor the situation for escalatory steps. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@PatrickRuffini It's not. This is a pretty big myth. *Very* early on in a race, maybe it tells you something, but at this point just look at the margin. https://t.co/iDteprx6XB — PolitiTweet.org