Nate Silver

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@pvolpe Paul are you familiar with the idea of a Twitter "thread"? It's a serious of "tweets" that are strung together, such that a reasonable person could infer that an image referenced in the last tweet in the thread was drawn from the story referenced in first tweet in the thread. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@pvolpe I know it's been a long day but there is a link to the story in the first tweet in the thread so maybe be more careful next time and chill out with the p-word there, bro? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I don't want to speculate *too* much about the political ramifications of…this…but that there apparently was a superspreading event, and that there are photos from the event of people hanging out indoors and outdoors in close proximity without masks on, is not great for the WH. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

"RBG dies 6 weeks before the election and the ceremony at the White House to name her replacement turns into a COVID-19 superspreading event" is, on the one hand, a remarkably strange sequence of events, but on the other hand chock-full of foreseeable risks that went unprevented. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Even if he isn't currently infected now, Pence should perhaps be isolating anyway for his own safety (and continuity of government operations) because one can imagine there are going to be secondary infections among people in this orbit. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The vice president is seated next to a whole bunch of people who have tested positive and although he's tested negative, he's a long ways from being out of the incubation period. Not sure that they should be doing the VP debate in person next week. https://t.co/0Ac8cetvSm — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Now 7 people seated in close proximity at the Amy Coney Barrett kickoff event at the Rose Garden have tested positive. https://t.co/umSuyoW3W6 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @Anna_Rothschild: If you're confused what that means, here's an episode of @FiveThirtyEight's Podcast-19, where we explain the science o… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

There are a lot of "why is Biden unliterary disarming?!" hot takes but pulling negative ads for a few days generates a lot of positive headlines that probably outweigh the value of said ads, especially given the "we must bring the country together" message that Biden is offering. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

And HarrisX has Biden +7 nationally, vs +5 before (generally one of Trump's stronger polls). On average, a Biden gain of 2 points vs. the previous editions of the same polls. All post-debate but before the president's COVID-19 diagnosis. https://t.co/cy51vbNH49 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Precautionary measure is almost exactly how Boris Johnson's hospitalization was initially described: https://t.co/ZPSgdHVW7m — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @AshleyRParker: NEWS: President Trump is preparing to depart for Walter Reed Medical Center at 5:30 pm, out of an abundance of caution,… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

For context, adding the previous poll from the same pollster National Change Research: Biden +13 (+9) Data For Progress: Biden +10 (+11) Ipsos: Biden +9 (+9) IBD/TIPP: Biden +3 (+6) MI PPP: Biden +6 (+4) NH Emerson: Biden +8 (+4) GA Landmark: Biden +2 (Trump +7) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

As far as fully post-debate polls go, here's what we've got National Change Research: Biden +13 Data For Progress: Biden +10 Ipsos: Biden +9 IBD/TIPP: Biden +3 Michigan PPP: Biden +6 New Hampshire Emerson: Biden +8 Georgia Landmark: Biden +2 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Well we've got this, though it's a bit cryptic ("fatigued but in good sprits"). https://t.co/pGvsIoqIfX — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

As we wrote today, it's possible that Trump's diagnosis could (most likely temporarily) help his personal ratings without helping his head-to-head polls against Biden. https://t.co/pmmemVt3yD — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

This is becoming a bit more glaring now that we're getting into the latter half of the day. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I see that "ImMuNiTY OnLy LaStS 3 MoNtHs" twitter (nope, that's a gross mischaracterization of the state of the art of our knowledge on that topic) is about to meet Amy Coney Barrett twitter. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

After post-debate national polls yesterday showed Biden +13 and Biden +9, IBD/TIPP shows Biden just +3 instead. So no herding here, at least. https://t.co/nAoLCg4NDg — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @maggiekb1: President Trump has coronavirus and the big takeaway is kinda, "welp, let's see what happens next". So many different possib… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @FiveThirtyEight: 👀 https://t.co/PdNMlAMiMZ — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @baseballot: I took a look at polling of other world leaders & governors after they got COVID-19. Lots of different scenarios for Trump.… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @yayitsrob: A negative PCR test today does not mean that someone escaped infection. The virus can incubate for more than a week before i… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The answers y'all are looking for (how will the president's COVID diagnosis affect the race?) are not answers we're going to be getting today, or this weekend. And while I have no moral critique against speculating (the election is *happening* *now*) there's a lot we don't know. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @juruwolfe: Today was the last jobs report before the election. Does that matter? It's might be less relevant this election cycle as Ame… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Update: ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Not sure what to say — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @realDonaldTrump: Tonight, @FLOTUS and I tested positive for COVID-19. We will begin our quarantine and recovery process immediately. We… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

https://t.co/PtIcoo94ca — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I'm sure the epidemiologists on here will correct me if I'm wrong, but my understanding is that it can take several days for a positive result after a potential exposure, see e.g.: https://t.co/lm6kEItXw2 — PolitiTweet.org