Nate Silver

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The electronically-assisted citibikes kind of make you feel like Lance Armstrong. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Personally, I think there's an inflection point at 52 seats where Democrats could tolerate defections from Manchin and one other random Democrat, and then maybe another inflection point at 54 or 55 seats, which would enable far more liberal/progressive/radical/etc. policies. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The 80% confidence interval now extends to 55 Democratic seats. While the modal outcome remains a closely divided Senate, tail-risk scenarios are increasing for the GOP. https://t.co/khM1cwYDzI — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

While we've all been focusing on the presidency, the Senate has moved out of toss-up range and Democrats are now nearly 2:1 favorites. A long way from a sure thing, but trending poorly for the GOP. https://t.co/eev4w6wba9 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @johnmsides: @IChotiner @mattyglesias @NateSilver538 In the 2016 general election campaign, his share of news coverage was negatively co… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@IChotiner @mattyglesias Not really. I mean I think he sort of helped keep Clinton off-balance. But that race had a different equilibrium to it where it felt like the steady state was a fairly close race, which I don't think is true this time. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Except Biden is perfectly happy to keep the focus on Trump, who has a deeply underwater approval rating. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Everybody is too risk-averse to write the "actually, Trump is terrible at politics" hot take but it will instantly be presumed to be *incredibly obvious* if polls are roughly correct on Nov. 3. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

It is also unlikely that the contact ended at the ACB ceremony 9 days ago (still in the quarantine period anyway), since the White House was clearly taking COVID completely unseriously until Thursday or Friday, which is not imply that they're taking it seriously now. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I guess I'm going on a mini rant here, but this is not some borderline case. It is the very opposite of that! Pence had close personal contact per the CDC definition without masks on with like 10 people that are COVID+. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Harris is a good debater (though Pence isn't bad) and I guess you don't wanna take chances when you're 8-9 points ahead. But the public buys the message that Trump/Pence have been deeply irresponsible on COVID and one way to highlight that is by actually following the CDC rules. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

And by the way, from a health standpoint: we are not talking about some trivial risk. Literally half the people around Pence in this POLITICO illustration got COVID. The negative tests and lack of symptoms reduce the chance, but it's still decently high. https://t.co/umSuypdFkG — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I don't think it would be crazy—from a purely strategic standpoint, notwithstanding the health risk—for Harris to put her foot down and say leaders need to take COVID seriously and she won't debate in person until Pence is out of the quarantine period. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @johnmsides: So what does a 1000-ad advantage in a media market in the last 2 months of the campaign get you? In a presidential race, a… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

What does it mean for the models etc if the NBC/WSJ poll is right and Biden wins up winning by 13 or 14 or some such after leading by ~7 the whole campaign? (I'm not saying this is very likely, but it's not crazy to imagine scenarios where the race totally gets away from Trump.) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@jbarro You can kind of impute the topline from the crosstabs too. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Hard to separate post-debate polls from post-COVID polls, though there's no suggestion that Trump's polling situation is improving. https://t.co/hSCYVyxgiO — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Little bit of old bread-and-butter polling analysis for you this afternoon. Biden appears to have gained 1 or 2 points in post-debate polls. https://t.co/LnEazd9iNY — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Just got a COVID antigen test with results within about 20 minutes (negative). A really nice option if it's available in your area, and you can also get PCR results sent to you after a few days if you want to be doubly sure. p.s. the nasal swab isn't as bad as it looks! — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @jeremyfaust: @NateSilver538 @ktumulty I might add that the exposure to the Secret Service in the SUV was unconscionable. This is an air… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@jeremyfaust @ktumulty Thank you. At least we're all learning a bit about COVID safety from this. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @marcambinder: And while Secret Service agents assume a heightened degree of risk by the nature of their job, they also rely on their pr… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@jeremyfaust @ktumulty Not really related to Trump per se, but if you had COVID, would you want to avoid other people who have COVID or does it not matter very much? Could you get a higher viral load, etc.? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I understand he wants to project strength, but polls show that a large majority of the public doesn't think Trump took COVID seriously and that colors their response to his illness. So even apart from putting Secret Service members in danger, etc., not sure it's wise politically. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Maybe, but it certainly deters people from going *into* those neighborhoods and it sends a pretty clear public health signal to people in those neighborhoods to be careful. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@WesPegden It's mostly very good follows! Learned a lot, haven't had to unfollow or mute anyone, etc. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Looking forward to some random Sunday afternoon 3 years from now when I'm like "why do I follow like 100 epidemiologists on Twitter?" — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mlipsitch I think the New Yorker (also true of other magazines) has a more ambitious writing style that is trying to "tell stories" rather than "merely" relate facts, and that can make this kind of thing a bit more common. But their fact-checking department is amazing. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

👇 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Ipsos also polled after the diagnosis and found Biden +10, similar to Biden +9 in a poll they did just beforehand. https://t.co/QbY6Egu5uZ — PolitiTweet.org