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Showing page 196 of 910.
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
RT @laurabronner: Red and blue shifts are a *totally normal* result of how votes were cast and counted this year -- in some states, early a… — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@JamesSurowiecki Yeah, lots of evidence of that from polling, fundraising, voting earlier, etc. https://t.co/5DVDGeWI4Q — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
In most states, the early mail votes were *very* blue and the late mail votes were *somewhat* blue. In Arizona, th… https://t.co/l7y8uAnJC9 — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Democrats were more enthusiastic and/or more concerned about their votes being received on time, so they sent their… https://t.co/PzGyNzG7wV — PolitiTweet.org
James Surowiecki @JamesSurowiecki
I've yet to hear a good explanation of why mail-in ballots deposited in person on or close to Election Day are more… https://t.co/5syw7Cp2Be
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Polls miss by about 3 points in an average year. That's what they missed by in 2016 and I think that's where we'll… https://t.co/bWf4fGdH1P — PolitiTweet.org
Jonathan Alter @jonathanalter
Does @NateSilver538 really think the national margin will end up at over 7%, which is where polls had it? That woul… https://t.co/3dtSXsBHp3
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Not much reason to think these were going to help Trump but still, this gives Biden quite a bit of security in NV. https://t.co/1vCCBmL1rk — PolitiTweet.org
Jon Ralston @RalstonReports
NEWS: First batch of new votes from NV, from Clark, shows Biden lead up to 12K.
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@DouthatNYT The errors in 2016 and 2020 have been about average, though. (At least that's where I'm thinking 2020 w… https://t.co/WCDkKwBtqs — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
RT @ameliatd: Curious about where Trump's legal maneuvering stands? I wrote up a summary at the @FiveThirtyEight live blog. There's not muc… — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
RT @AsteadWesley: I might be a simpleton but I don't get how this is an airball! There was a massive state polling error and Biden is still… — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
There's also an irony here in that people who weren't data-literate and wrote hot takes about the data didn't reali… https://t.co/FlSoPLqEaT — PolitiTweet.org
Benjy Sarlin @BenjySarlin
There are huge election stories right now, but I do think we need to demand a Take Audit later this month when we h… https://t.co/RogCgwjDfO
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
I'm not sure it's really sunk in yet, even among reporters, that we're probably going to get 2 runoffs in Georgia o… https://t.co/5gx8ldILVP — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
RT @baseballot: @NateSilver538 British-style election announcements or GTFO https://t.co/Dj5dK33JJx — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@kwcollins Yep, for sure. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
And a lot of it is because of the blue shift in late-counted ballots. If we go to bed at 1am on Wednesday and polls… https://t.co/5uu6jW5Pil — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Yeah, I'm all for thinking through hypotheses. I have lots of questions about how well polls are doing in reflectin… https://t.co/l8OGZtYiZY — PolitiTweet.org
Kevin Collins @kwcollins
You can't measure the difference between votes and polls until you know the number of the former. That said, it's… https://t.co/ryq1gCs7b8
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Also pertinent to this: https://t.co/EyU9HkAJ0s — PolitiTweet.org
Charles Stewart III @cstewartiii
Blue shift watch. Nationwide, 220,224 additional votes were reported yesterday, resulting in a total turnout numbe… https://t.co/IBODzRqNyv
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@DanRosenheck What counts as fully done isn't always clear (sometimes provisionals are added later) but ... certain… https://t.co/UwuXUkCVM0 — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
So far, only one state has been "called" incorrectly by polls (Florida), though NC will probably join it eventually… https://t.co/wx0p8UzfMg — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
If provisionals ballots alone can shift the results by ~2 points toward Biden in a state, then people should be pre… https://t.co/w5cdMWp0di — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
I've got a longer take on Georgia on our liveblog: https://t.co/PO6Gnu4srG — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
That would make these counties almost 20 points bluer than Georgia overall. Clinton won them by 14.3 points in 2016… https://t.co/zIwzJgIWUF — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
OK this would be a big deal. If the unspecified votes are in Clayton Co., that's very good for Biden. https://t.co/B9wwI3OjcX — PolitiTweet.org
Conor Sen @conorsen
I'm sure it was just a slip-up but this is missing 7400 votes in CLAYTON, the most Dem county in the entire state.… https://t.co/XmI7WfxLQC
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
I'd say all of these estimates need to be treated with a degree of caution, though. Sometimes one estimate assumes… https://t.co/0DmbwDDoLl — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Maybe the buried lede here though is that there are 61,000 votes and not 51,000 as had been estimated earlier. That… https://t.co/xwICUFm27n — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
A few more counties here, although not enough to get up to 61,000 votes. Assuming unspecified counties went Trump +… https://t.co/psTGRJK0mP — PolitiTweet.org
Richard Fausset @RichardFausset
Bryan 3,000 Burke 494 Chatham 17,000 Cobb 700 Floyd 682 Forsyth 4,713 Fulton 11,200 Harris county 3,641 Laurens 179… https://t.co/jMfiSpVaqU
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Although there do seem to be about 12,000 votes in other/unspecified counties in this tally. If we assume the unspe… https://t.co/D1LDurWMtI — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
If you take a weighted average of these counties, they're about 15 points bluer than Georgia overall, based on the… https://t.co/CoCNiyA5CF — PolitiTweet.org
Amy Gardner @AmyEGardner
UPDATE: 61k votes are outstanding in Georgia. 17,157 from Chatham; 11,200 from Fulton; 7,338 from Gwinnett; 4,713 f… https://t.co/waUuFafDes
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@Redistrict How sufficient is the evidence that you've viewed? — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
So, AJC is saying 51,000 untallied absentee ballots in Georgia, most "concentrated in highly populated areas, led b… https://t.co/WXZ5DuZeHp — PolitiTweet.org
Greg Bluestein @bluestein
Here’s our latest tally of how many absentee ballots remain - and where they are coming from. (Hint: Most are conce… https://t.co/2we7MpzAyD
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
In all of these ballot-counting scenarios, the challenge is not so much in figuring out the margin that a candidate… https://t.co/Onr13h07Cn — PolitiTweet.org
