Nate Silver

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

One reason "shy Trump voters" doesn't make as much sense as you'd think as an explanation for polling errors this y… https://t.co/nSZkUWHXSg — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @RalstonReports: @NateSilver538 https://t.co/bvpy7cDeNm Not all of them are there. Getting full breakdown in AM. Nate, the math does… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@RalstonReports 👍 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@RalstonReports Do we have data on what the same-day voter registration ballots look like? What are those exactly? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Also worth mentioning that military officers aren't super into Trump. And the non-military overseas vote is likely… https://t.co/CFggyNMlQE — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

So if I had to guess, I'd think the provisionals are more likely to help Biden. What I think we can be pretty certa… https://t.co/PfbCK4Nznj — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

So far, the the share of the vote Trump's getting among provisionals looks a lot like the share he's getting among… https://t.co/Eo48rxfen7 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

We've got a detailed take on PA provisionals up on our liveblog: https://t.co/PO6Gnu4srG — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

And even if the provisionals were red relative to their counties (which they aren't so far; they almost exactly mat… https://t.co/QuIfSotjnq — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Now, the 40K estimate in Philly includes overseas absentees and error ballots in additional to provisionals, so 5%… https://t.co/pgfeAJ7Aix — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

One other piece of evidence here. Statewide, provisionals represent ~1.5% of all ballots cast. In eight very red… https://t.co/HrQjRnaw5Q — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

And maybe there's a further layer between *nearly impossible* and *completely impossible* when the call is particul… https://t.co/E0eP4Bsgb5 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I tell 'ya what, though. I am sympathetic to these decision desks because a lot of what they're doing is trying to… https://t.co/Gh4kz4GRp8 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Another thread from local reporters and experts that comes to the same conclusion: https://t.co/hJf7OpWiMe — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Nonetheless, we have 3 points of evidence that the provisionals are somewhat D (party registration on unreturned ma… https://t.co/U2BjSnnrOI — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

One other point of context here is that there *was* some confusion about provisional ballots earlier because York C… https://t.co/O3CH8cXbGn — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@jbarro Yeah, that makes sense, too. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Furthermore, the universe of requested-but-unreturned mail ballots, which is where most of these provisionals origi… https://t.co/ibhVa0xJmQ — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Also, about 40K of the provisionals are in Philly County, which is a considerably higher proportion than Philly's s… https://t.co/7uLQx9jzDg — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Maybe the provisionals—which should mostly reflect cases where the voter originally requested a mail ballot, then d… https://t.co/0Fjwo8Mg88 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

So, I am open-minded but not super persuaded by this. There are a handful of counties to have counted provisional b… https://t.co/j0vLzafpjd — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@Andy_Bloch @steelekelly Drawing dead. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Yeah, we're used to presidents entering office with a trifecta and attempting (and sometimes succeeding) at enactin… https://t.co/YkV2RI1xkW — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

It's like saying "what if Steph Curry were 6'11?". He wouldn't be Steph Curry if he were 6'11. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The "what if Trump were Trump but competent and sane" talk always makes me wince, because a person is a whole packa… https://t.co/HCd3XyGrHV — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@barry Oh, I am aware of your comments about Fivey. And so is Fivey. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I don't know, but it sure seems to me like not calling the race when the outcome is obvious in states like PA and N… https://t.co/oj3YrlXkZx — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Those Maricopa ballots have probably closed down Trump's path in Arizona. He needed to do much better. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The provisionals are also important. Biden should pull ahead semi-comfortably (maybe by 70K votes) based on the rem… https://t.co/9KFKK5BroF — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @MattGlassman312: Yup. The horserace is a complete and total illusion; an artifact of the process. https://t.co/PvDA3xQAUR — PolitiTweet.org