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Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@thehowie Oh yeah the betting markets were crazy but I'm not allowed to bet on them. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
If you were looking at the data carefully, I'm not sure Biden was ever an underdog at any point from 7pm Tuesday onward. Certainly close at some points. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
ABC NEWS: BIDEN WINS — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@Garrett_Archer Do we know what was in this drop? Still "late earlies" and Election Day drop-offs, or were there some provisionals in here? — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
RT @b_schaffner: If your polling error take (1) relies on exit polls as a measure of “truth” and (2) can’t explain why the polling errors a… — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@Timodc I mean I think the NV no-call is because of the AZ call, especially for AP. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Basically if you interpet everything as "we want to be sure that Biden wins by 0.5%" (and avoids a recount) then a… https://t.co/G5PDZArLQk — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
On the liveblog I've got some theorizing about when we might get a call: https://t.co/PO6Gnu4srG — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@benyt Also true, of course, for many other kinds of news coverage. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@benyt As an observer of this for a long time, calls often slow down after Election Day. Something I think is in pl… https://t.co/kvR2AlO5n4 — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Personally, given a lot of state-by-state and region-by-region variation, I suspect it will turn out to reflect a c… https://t.co/v5nRQ6WQ4t — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Something like this is plausible, for instance: different patterns of who was at home or working from home because… https://t.co/hQ52vUKZY5 — PolitiTweet.org
Kombiz Lavasany @kombiz
This is just a hypothesis but I wonder if it isn't just a question that response rates were higher for people who w… https://t.co/Ls3yaOJ3dl
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
We also know very little about the whys. Why was polling bad in the Midwest (except in Minnesota?) but pretty good… https://t.co/eHhSE48cdX — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
The main issue is "you should wait for all votes to be counted to judge the accuracy of polls" may sounds like lame… https://t.co/6HrjI3Qlyo — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Gonna preface this by again reminding you that I'm not a pollster and instead my job is to assess how accurate poll… https://t.co/svakhR8fw0 — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@CheckItOuter @chrislhayes If you make 520 forecasts (435 House races + 35 Senate + 50 presidency) you actually hav… https://t.co/8P5gPKYrvw — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@chrislhayes Well, that's why you need folks like 538 who can translate those polls into probabilities! Not all rac… https://t.co/Z6p94PDFqD — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@chrislhayes It is true that in polarized eras where elections tend to be 50/50 affairs, polls will "call" the winn… https://t.co/xA5tADrG8n — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@chrislhayes Polls have been about as accurate over the last three cycles (2016-2020) as they have been on average,… https://t.co/YyonzDQIzV — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@chrislhayes The thing is that if a poll is off by 4 points (about what we got this year on average) people think t… https://t.co/P6SMJxEmSo — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@chrislhayes Like, there are various ways that the 2016 and 2020 polling errors could have been one-offs, either to… https://t.co/CSlAj0dGYr — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@chrislhayes "Polls often have bias, but the direction of polling bias isn't predictable" is fairly robust empirica… https://t.co/v78bQxp9wt — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@SethPartnow I do think people obsess over weird crosstabs too much, not realizing that you're inevitably going to… https://t.co/oXGeWxNLQm — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@SethPartnow I suppose I don't *think* that's an issue? The polls that release more detail usually do tend to do better. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@chrislhayes To put it another way, *most* years have systematic polling errors to some degree or another. You can… https://t.co/telNrd0uRT — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@chrislhayes The errors are correlated in any given year, of course. But they aren't correlated from year to year a… https://t.co/qSjBlXidtX — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@SethPartnow I think polls are mostly fairly sophisticated and consumers mostly don't get how hard polling is and h… https://t.co/I0VntPHrex — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@chrislhayes Not really, though! People are going to start doing some hack-ish shit, like the British pollsters did… https://t.co/6Ql0kLIpwI — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Anyway, a good lukewarm take is that declining response rates to polls—long cited as a reason for concern—are start… https://t.co/rbpw6fd5bG — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
"It's harder to reach certain types of voters on the phone, including in ways that are hard to solve with demograph… https://t.co/KNHvxgNGmj — PolitiTweet.org
