Nate Silver

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@BenjySarlin I don't know. Europe has had very big problems in the fall too, obviously, despite better messaging and more stimulus. I don't think people widely understood that the warm-weather equilibrium of social activity wouldn't keep R<=1 in colder water. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

…when being aware of those effects might have helped us to better prepare for the fall/winter surge in a variety of ways. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

This from @zeynep is good on some of the messaging challenges around COVID. Everyone was so concerned with trying to debunk the notion that COVID would just "go away" in warmer weather that they downplayed evidence of reasonably strong seasonal effects…https://t.co/lRntupFyBh — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

TBH it's kind of astonishing you think that I (an econ grad, btw) wouldn't know that. And part of an annoying pattern of academics underestimating the knowledge of non-academics. Matt brought it up recently in the context of COVID and I thought it was appropriate to refer to him. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@zeynep @davidshor @MattZeitlin @mattyglesias I mean it was certainly a weird column. The first half about the bubble was useful. And the second half about his decision to see his family while taking a *lot* of precautions is defensible. When you fuse those together into one column though it sets a strange tone. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@zeynep @davidshor @MattZeitlin @mattyglesias I think people understand pretty well their social bubbles are not pristine. It's mostly a euphemism to say "everybody's being *pretty* careful here, right?". Or it's hygenie theater to defend the choice to see other people in person when you think you might get scolded for it. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

FWIW my point here is not to make people feel particularly comfortable about the situation in NYC. The positive test rate has been (slowly) rising and my guess is it will rise further. But this shows the arbitrariness of the 3% threshold. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Looks like NYC's 7-day average positivity rate dipped -- by the slimmest possible margin -- under 3% again. (3% was the threshold for closing schools. I don't know what the protocol is for reopening them.) https://t.co/FzTtPAVIGR https://t.co/4cXLTW2xfY — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @MattGrossmann: The persistent idea that Republicans doubled down on Trump populism is not correct. The top issues in final ads were tax… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@davidshor @MattZeitlin @mattyglesias Also matters that transmission is relatively low in northern CA right now. Anyway, it shows how disconnected the Twitter bubble is from reality. I'm pretty sure that nearly all of my (mostly liberal, well-informed) IRL friends would consider that adequately cautious. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@MattZeitlin This is piggybacking off a @mattyglesias point but I think it shows the problem is that a lot of COVID behavior which may be rational from an individual's standpoint can nonetheless cause negative externalities for society. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@Neoavatara I'm not sure I'd take at face value the White House's claim that it was testing frequently. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Fauci is also a fan of frequent testing, at least as a theoretical concept. Tests need to be faster, more accurate & more available. But the view that "tests just give people a false sense of security" has gone too far. They're a big part of the solution. https://t.co/zOjT5jXjUy https://t.co/jPjiedbue5 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

FWIW, New York City health officials have been encouraging people to get tested once a month or so as a surveillance measure. I agree that it may be a bad idea to do so *right now* if there's a rush in advance of Thanksgiving. But NYC has pretty decent testing capacity. https://t.co/SDqOg7SzBc — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @ABCNewsPR: What is @FiveThirtyEight?...Did you catch @NateSilver538 as a clue on @Jeopardy tonight? https://t.co/3920IjdZ2y — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@seeglazek @jbarro I'm optimistic that things will be normal-ish by mid-2021. I think it might take a bit longer before people are comfortable planning things for larger rather than smaller, more tightly-knit groups. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@benyt 1) They're not particularly liquid; 2) I can't bet since it would get me in deep trouble with my employer and is also a bit ethically dubious since our analysis can move markets. But I hope some of my followers are making a little extra spending money. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Yes, Trump can request a 2nd recount, but there was already one recount, and recounts don't overturn 10K+ vote margins. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Georgia *just certified its result for Biden* but prediction markets still give Trump a 9% chance of winning there. Lot of dumb money out there, and I mean that quite literally. https://t.co/qpmkmQfImF https://t.co/tBAwZ2U4SR — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @bluestein: Georgia @GovKemp just certified the state’s 16 Democratic presidential electors, saying he was legally bound to make the dec… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@NateDuncanNBA Yeah I'd hope that like "let's pay teachers way more" would be one of the legacies of this pandemic. Unfortunately, I think it might be the opposite with school budgets really suffering. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@jbarro Yeah, I think there's going to be a lot of overcompensation (not necessarily a bad thing). Plus stuff like people having a big 41st birthday party because their 40th fell during the pandemic. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I'm not sure that remote *learning* is going to have its reputation enhanced by this, though—probably the opposite. More voting by mail? I originally thought that would outlast the pandemic, but the way Trump/Republicans politicized it in the US, I don't know about that now. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I'm sure there will be some changes, but it seems like stuff that was overdue anyway. To take a trivial example, fast-food restaurants were always a natural fit for delivery and it's not surprising they upped their game. Less trivially, probably more tolerance for remote work. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Predictable, but many of these techno-utopian takes from early in the pandemic seem like they'll age poorly by having underestimated people's desire for in-person human contact. That's been hard to turn off, in ways that's made it hard to stop the spread. https://t.co/3dMqKe55I7 https://t.co/mWeXe3wcje — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

There *were* some white-working areas that shifted toward Biden. Northern New England is another good example. But others shifted toward Trump. A bit of a confusing map. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Yeah. I think it's well and good to try to persuade people to curtail their social activity. The equation has changed, with cases rising and vaccines on the way. But you're probably not going to be very persuasive if you treat people's desire to see family/friends as frivolous. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I get annoyed by the "pay people to stay home" message too, because it conflates two issues, one concerning the continuity of businesses and one concerning people's personal behavior. Better would be something like: "Pay businesses to stay closed. Encourage people to stay home." — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@DanFosterType This is kind of a dumb troll. It's good to have probabilities when there is uncertainty. There isn't any uncertainty about who won the election. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I don't think Republicans going 80% of the way toward acknowledging Biden won is necessarily much better than not acknowledging it at all. What's needed is clarity, moral and otherwise, not ambiguity. — PolitiTweet.org