Nate Silver

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @laurabronner: The suburbs shifted to the Democrats, and they also got more diverse. Is the story that simple? @geoffreyvs, @elena___mej… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @apoorva_nyc: It's a Hanukkah miracle! "Some of the glass vials that are supposed to hold five doses contained enough for a sixth — or e… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The Wales plan also has the proper prioritization of older people vs. people with pre-existing conditions. Very few pre-exiting conditions increase your mortality risk from COVID-19 as much as simply being old. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Agree. The Wales plan is more rational than any of the US plans I've seen. You could probably start mixing in teachers/other essential workers around, say, the people-over-65 group. But the fatality rates are SO much higher for older people that they ought to be prioritized IMO. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @FreddieCampion: My wife just confessed that for her entire childhood she thought Colonel Sanders’ bow tie was his whole body and now I… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@JADubin5 I *think* it's one of the 2 best long-term projections we've run since we started doing these things 5 or 6 years ago. AD after he made the All-NBA team in his 3rd year in the league was the other one that looked like this. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

👀 https://t.co/KQkxNRwN4G — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Reminded of this by the Buttigieg stuff today, but the extent to which Biden just sort of skated by unnoticed in some circles despite leading in the polls for all of 2019 while candidates like Buttigieg and Warren and Klobuchar sparked so much vitriol was pretty remarkable. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Yeah this is really good news. (And agree with the next tweet in this thread too.) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Trump has had a ~10% chance to win the election on prediction markets for weeks, long after the race was called for Biden. For people who were like "this is only because of structural flaws with those markets" ... nope. There really were enough true believers out there: — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @thehowie: @NateSilver538 Exactly right. If JNJ comes along with EUA in late January, we can reliably have vaccines available to everyon… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@Crimealytics They are doing two trials. They launched a one-dose trial in September and a two-dose trial last month. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

So, the easiest path toward accelerating this timetable a bit—i.e. how we can vaccinate more than 150 million by the end of the 2Q—is Johnson & Johnson, right, which should be reporting Phase 3 results soon-ish? https://t.co/EsSVL5gdbm https://t.co/H4lEjOiRYO — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @mountain_goats: few surer signs that something is absolutely, definitively over, and that no long-shot effort is remotely feasible, tha… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

There are quite a few GOP senators saying stuff like this now, including several who have been fairly loyal to Trump. https://t.co/iCehhJki6m — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @NickRiccardi: WASHINGTON (AP) — President-elect Joe Biden clears 270-vote threshold in Electoral College count, formalizing his victory. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Yeah, that's basically right. The preseason projections did quite well, but the way it handled in-season adjustments was quite crappy tbh. So we've put a lot of work in on that this year. More detail on this soon. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

(And... yeah, we're a little late with our NBA stuff this year. The compressed timing of the offseason + coinciding with the election made things tricky.) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Basically our projections don't always care for high-usage players and want to see a diverse range of skills, especially any signs of defensive acumen. So a guy like Haliburton (steals + rebounds + assists + efficient shooting) checks a lot of boxes. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Rookies that our NBA projections like, with comparison to actual draft position. Note: this only includes players who played NCAA ball. 1. Haliburton (12) 2. Wiseman (2) 3. Anthony Edwards (1) 4. Vassell (11) 5. Patrick Williams (4) 6. Okongwu (6) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

New York has been about ~5 degrees warmer than average over the past 45 days, which has made getting through this part of the winter (I know it's not technically winter yet) a lot easier. Unfortunately, worse weather is coming, which is bad news for everyone but @ForecasterEnten. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@DanRosenheck @Neil_Paine Yep coming soon — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

One thing about this news cycle is how tedious all of it is. There are only so many ways to say "this it's not going to work, but it's potentially very dangerous in the long term". And there isn't a lot to say *apart* from that. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@aravosis @joshtpm They're not all going to get sick at the same time. A lot of them have probably already gotten sick TBH or will over the next few months. And many people will have been vaccinated. So hospitals will not be overcrowded. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

People in the both the Trump and Biden White Houses should be a fairly high priority for vaccination. So should members of Congress and their staffs. They're doing largely in-person work that, at least in theory, is important to the continued functioning of society. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@PatrickRuffini It's not perfect, but they've generally done the right thing on the *second* try even if they didn't originally, which is more than you can say for a lot of jurisdictions. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@PatrickRuffini NY State did open schools, and then NYC closed them once positivity rates reached 3%, but later turned around and opened them again. Our restrictions have been fairly rational and proportionate; please don't mistake us for California. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias Probably true in the large majority of states. Not sure about California, say. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@joshtpm It's *probably* a moot point because I think we'll *probably* have reached herd immunity by the time we've run out of people willing to take vaccines. But you can plug in some plausible scenarios where we haven't. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@joshtpm None of this applies if there are logistical problems with vaccine distribution. But if/when we've reached the point that anyone who wants a vaccine in a state can get one essentially on demand, I don't think there should be many/any restrictions on movement. — PolitiTweet.org