Nate Silver

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@galendruke @mattyglesias And then have a cross-aisle conversation the whole flight? Oh, no, Galen. I'd call an Air Marshal on you. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias So the move is to book the aisle and window with your partner and gamble that no one will take the middle seat between two strangers. If they do, one partner can always offer to switch *into* the middle seat, which middle seat will ~always accept. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@Chris_arnade Exit row on a NYC to LA flight. LOOONG flight, especially if you're trying to have a productive day once you land... — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@NickRiccardi Didn't take you for a middle-seat lover, Nick!!! — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Feels like there should be a bigger gap in pricing of aisle/window vs. middle seats? Are there people who secretly love the middle seat? (Maybe they're super social or something.) https://t.co/PWqRpSq514 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias I mean the US is worse from the standpoint of political economy. The Boston through Washington route (or more generously Portland thru Richmond) is an order of magnitude better for HSR than anything else. In France, the benefits are spread more equally. https://t.co/0tv90SVEKi — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Basically the NYT's coverage of politics devours a lot of its other beats. Elon's management of Twitter is a very interesting politics story, a somewhat interesting business story, and a not-very-interesting tech story. ChatGPT is just the opposite. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@amymaxmen After almost 3 years of this are you really still claiming that the media hasn't handled the COVID origins story in biased ways? You've been part of the problem, frankly. It has undermined trust in science journalism and in journalism overall. https://t.co/iJXcctU6bE — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@paulg I think we need to separate out "new ideas" from "good writing". Nonconsensus views will increase in importance if there is a lot of AI-augmented sameness. I suspect the AIs will eventually become very good at writing per se though (e.g. persuasive, succinct, even entertaining). — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@amymaxmen I haven't tried to evaluate the paper myself. I think there are a lot of biases in which papers get media coverage and which don't, and that this paper got only one or two attempts at coverage in the mainstream media, despite its seeming importance, speaks to those biases. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @ABCPolitics: “Bottom line, I think it will be a rocky road involving multiple ballots. But if you forced me to pick, I’d buy that McCar… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@conorsen I dunno, I'm somewhat more AI skeptical than some of the crowd I hang out with but I think both the ceiling *and* the floor are fairly high. It may be transformational, it may not be, but it's unlikely to be a complete bust. At the very least will have important use cases. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@catehall It never got a lot of pickup from the mainstream media for reasons that reflect bias for lack of a better term. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias The people most likely to criticize new Twitter management (and to be clear there's a lot to criticize) have an uncanny overlap with the people who referred to old Twitter management as "this hellsite". — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

One of the more understated risks from AI is that it comes up with medicore answers that people mistake for being brilliant. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@davekarpf I'd think AI chatbots might be fairly easy to detect? The current versions have a lot of predictable, repetitive catch phrases that would be very easy to detect. New versions will be better and vary language more but likely still strong statistical signatures. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The tendency to puff up a ~moderately interesting story or argument~ into something //EPIC// is one that occurs in all forms of media but long Twitter threads are especially prone to it. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

My general critique of AI language models is the same critique one should have of models in general, which is that giving an approximately correct solution in 98% of cases isn't particularly valuable if the 98% are trivial and the 2% are what you really care about. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@awprokop IDK David Leonhardt is about has polite as can be and there's still a certain clique on here who thinks he's the spawn of Satan. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@AGHamilton29 The view that Twitter was approximately correct about policing right-leaning misinformation, but needed to MORE aggressive about left-leaning misinformation (TL and EFD being great examples) is a highly credible and coherent view that approximately no one seems to espouse. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias 🔥🔥🔥 Amsterdam, while a lovely city in most other respects, has pretty mediocre food. 🔥🔥🔥 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

A big deal. This has been a quite productive two years in Congress for Biden. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @colinmort: - Everyone is watching football (soccer) - Upcoming rail strike - Majority party might not be able to form a government A… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

And sometimes it's *worse* if you're making a *nuanced* argument because those are more on the boundary of what needs to be policed as acceptable discourse. It's a Broken Windows philosophy in which the appearance of order is maintained by intolerating minor transgressions. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I've experienced similar things on Twitter. There's a range from out-of-context quotations to outright falsehoods/fabrications with a lot of stopping points in the middle. But some people are remarkably untethered to being truthful if you're seen as a threat to their "team". — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Why was there a red wave in New York and Florida... but nowhere else? This pizza shop in Fort Lauderdale has a radical new theory of continental drift that explains *everything*. Let's jump in... 1/214 https://t.co/99qhpfgSVn — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@SeanTrende Yeah, there's a Grand Canyon-sized gap between the image one might acquire of "academics on Twitter", and the overwhelmingly positive and helpful interactions I have with academics in a variety of other personal and professional settings. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@SeanTrende Yeah and that's before we get into the issue of experts chasing for Twitter admiration, and how that tended to elevate certain expert viewpoints over other expert viewpoints, especially given that many journalists cater to the sensibilities of the platform. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The trends were already accelerating beforehand, but still think a huge mistake was the extent to which spending time physically around other people came to be deemed "inessential" under COVID. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@Noahpinion The midterms offered a lot of support for your hypothesis. I'd still say I'm like 7.5 out of 10 in terms of worry for US democracy but that's down from 8.5 or 9. The fact that more people aren't willing to acknowledge this makes me lose some faith in them tbh. — PolitiTweet.org