Nate Silver

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Yeah, so say we want to get 75% of the population vaccinated by Sept. 22 (last day of summer). That seems optimistic because of vaccine hesitancy and the fact that we don't yet have a vaccine approved for children. But it's toward the low end of Fauci's goal. 1/ — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

👀 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

If you're going to open it up this widely, then just go ahead and open it to everybody. Don't create weird incentives for people to either undertake unhealthful behavior (put on pounds, start smoking) or have to fudge about it. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The average US male has a body mass index (BMI) of 29 and eligibility in DC starts at 25! There is no scientific basis for this at all. https://t.co/FMzLBEBVp1 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

So, >50% of DC residents would qualify based on the weight criteria alone. Add in criteria based on other conditions like smoking (how is that defined or verified; do ex-smokers count?) and there's basically no prioritization at all. https://t.co/xP17qAbJ6G — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Yesterday had some high numbers because of reporting lags, but worth noting that the 7-day averages on cases, deaths and hospitalizations are all improving in the US. It's from a very high baseline, but things looking a bit better than earlier this month. https://t.co/dHB4t8PvUm https://t.co/xrn6y9UUhk — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@notdred @thehowie I guess I'd just say the longer you push the time frame out, the less you face irresolvable constraints versus things that the new administration could plausibly hope to fix. It does seem like April could be a pivot point in various ways. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@thehowie Yeah. Overall administering 1m/day seems pretty reasonable now given current constraints, but between Pfizer/Moderna ramping up + the possibility of J&J, etc., I hope that we're higher by the end of the first 100 days. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@thehowie I don't know the exact timelines, but we're theoretically supposed to get 400m doses from Pfizer + Moderna by July 31, right? Which would work out to ~2m/day, although likely pretty backloaded. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Yeah. We're already administering ~900k doses a day, when Biden is targeting 1M/day. We're almost certainly going to get to 1M/day unless something goes very very wrong. Nothing wrong with setting an achievable goal but we need to look at 1M/day as the bare minimum. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

This seems like an important point. Also, as states are setting up their vaccine infrastructures, they should be thinking about how to make them sustainable rather than one-offs. Seems plausible that people will need to be revaccinated every couple years. https://t.co/VYZ2NJNKmu https://t.co/qO4HijE3X3 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

There's so much attention given to the fact that Trump got 74 million votes but little to the fact that Biden got 81 million. It's just an insane number. Population growth is a big factor, but no one before 2020 had even gotten 70 million votes. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @galendruke: 🎧 New pod 🎧 The Biden presidency begins. https://t.co/RtnLkKtVRO — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Seeing folks starting to interpret testing data among vaccinated people in Israel, etc. and one thing to remember is that the research shows some people will still test positive for weeks after being infected, even if they're no longer sick or contagious. https://t.co/ZHZW9W2M4B — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Our last liveblog of Trump's presidency (well, unless he pulls off a Grover Cleveland) and our first liveblog of Biden's presidency: https://t.co/Sq3Vrx5WJo — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Here's our podcast from yesterday with some non-pithy, long-form thoughts, though. https://t.co/i0GltF1v9g — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I wish I had some pithier takes but TBH after four years of Trump I mostly find myself i) feeling numb ii) hoping nothing bad happens today iii) wanting suggestions on books to read to help put Trump in better perspective. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @karentravers: Thanks for having me on the @FiveThirtyEight podcast to talk about Trump’s term and legacy. Great to talk to @NateSilve… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@thehowie Some of this though reads like public health authorities trying to convince people that extremely rational behavioral changes they might make are irrational, and I don't think that ends up in a good place. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@thehowie I mean, I can see a case for strictness when there are very bad local outbreaks (as in the UK right now), as least until we find out how much vaccines reduce transmission. But I'd make that the message then and emphasize this is only true on a short-term, emergency basis. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

We need to remind people to wait for ~14 days after the 2nd dose for full protection to kick in. But it's wild to tell vaccinated people that they shouldn't hang out w/ other vaccinated people, or with people who are very unlikely to become seriously ill. https://t.co/Oeq7bYhUgT https://t.co/hPjZLDfJYf — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Final results in Georgia are Warnock +2.1 and Ossoff +1.2. By comparison, final polling averages were Warnock +2.1 and Ossoff +1.8. https://t.co/jNFvD5ZNhd — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @onyxfish: I love everything about this piece about the historic number of women in Congress. Great writing, wonderful design, gorgeous… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @perrybaconjr: We looked at three possible explanations for why Biden is talking so much about bipartisanship and unity. With thoughts f… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @perrybaconjr: Really important story. More focus should be on local and state Republicans, who are going to play a big role in whether… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

What's useful to point out: 1) Full (95%) effectiveness doesn't kick in until ~14 days after the *second* dose. So manage your risk carefully in the interim. 2) We aren't sure yet how good vaccines are at preventing (asymptomatic) infections. So don't be a jerk and wear a mask. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

This is a good column. When you see people say stuff like "you shouldn't change your behavior even once you get the vaccine", you should be wary of any other advice they give. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @ameliatd: This is a historic year for women of color in nat'l politics. Scholars say it's not because of a sea change among parties/vot… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

One thing I worry about in particular is the combination of reducing education levels (especially among poorer children) while simultaneously reducing social ties and how that could affect support for future authoritarian movements. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I'm pro lockdown for the time being given the circumstances of the moment (vaccines here, new variants etc.) but I also worry that when we look back in 5 years we'll discover all sorts of adverse consequences from people being physically/socially isolated from one another. — PolitiTweet.org