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Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Basically, there was a steady decline in people's levels of caution from the start of the pandemic through late June, and we've been in something of a steady state sense. However, people are staying at home a BIT more recently. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
This USC tracking poll is a useful resource for tracking how much people are modifying their behavior as a result of COVID. The orange line, for instance, shows how many people say they're staying at home except for essential activities; currently ~45-50%. https://t.co/BT47WuNxZ4 https://t.co/XTWcVlkc3C — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
RT @ABCPolitics: Polling shows that while COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy is declining, it remains a partisan issue, @NateSilver538 says: “While… — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
This seems to miss an obvious explanation? Hospitalizations have fallen. The positive test % has fallen. So we can be pretty confident that COVID is in fact declining. If fewer people have symptoms or contact with COVID+ people, less demand for tests? https://t.co/oM6YKuMKgF — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Is Tom Brady the greatest football player of all-time? — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@tomgara The sense I get from people is that it's a bunch of stuff. People are fearful of new variants and being careful; immunity gradually building with vaccinations + 25-30% of the country having had COVID; thru holiday gatherings; maybe some seasonality though that's hotly debated. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Yeah. The failures of the US healthcare system are myriad. But we're doing comparatively well on vaccinations, several times faster than the EU which has much more centralized health care delivery. — PolitiTweet.org
James Surowiecki @JamesSurowiecki
The rollout has been slower than it should've been. But we administered 1.7 million vaccines yesterday. We've admi… https://t.co/xg5Mjx4xAL
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@ClaraJeffery The amazing array of outdoor/"outdoor" dining options in cities like NYC (some of which aren't COVID-safe IMO, but others of which rather cleverly are pretty good about reducing risk) suggests this might be possible in mediocre weather too if you have a little bit of $ to spend. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
RT @KShiely: I’m sorry we’ve failed you Leo. We will definitely try to do better. Or rename the show as you suggest. https://t.co/cROeJeVQbH — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@notdred @conorsen Yeah. It's sort of like a 2x2 matrix where you have the letter of the law and the spirit of the law. In some places people are sort of passive-aggressively following protocols but clearly DGAF. In some places they're trying really hard but maybe not following the best epi advice. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@notdred @conorsen Honestly the news orgs should send (vaccinated, ideally!) reporters around the country to see how different people are following COVID protocols. In the tiny bit of travel I've done outside NYC metro, it's been totally all over the place and hard to characterize. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
RT @ShawnHils: this is the last thing you see if you take a call in the quiet car — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@mattyglesias I think this sort of thing is true of a lot of arguments between experts and "outsiders" during the pandemic. The public health experts are great but the field tends toward extreme risk-aversion, so outsiders can look at the experts' data and come to different policy conclusions. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
RT @mattyglesias: @NateSilver538 Yes, exactly ... when you ask why it takes so long you get a mechanical explanation of why the process is… — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@mattyglesias I assume everyone would agree that J&J is very likely to be approved, but to get from 99% sure of something to 99.9% (or 99.9% to 99.99%) can take a *lot* of work. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@mattyglesias Part of the issue IMO is that people are interpreting the question "Why is this taking so long?" as "Is there slack in the current process?" (A seems to be: Maybe a *bit* but not much) when the better question might be whether the process as currently designed is too risk-averse. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
RT @notdred: If I could get exactly one piece of information about the pandemic with complete precision I think I would choose: how many do… — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@EdBelongia @notdred @carlzimmer Appreciate the response, thank you. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@EdBelongia @notdred @carlzimmer Suppose that the public had an endless reservoir of trust in the FDA and there were no vaccine hesitancy. Could the approval process then be a bit faster? Obviously public trust is important but how much of the process is about *that* vs. actually scrutinizing the data etc.? — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@notdred @carlzimmer Fair enough. It just seems like there has to be some potential to build on previous experience though. So maybe not a long weekend but take 2 weeks instead of 3? Also worth noting that the UK authorized Pfizer about twice as fast as we did. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@notdred @carlzimmer If you read the transcript from the Pfizer meeting, a large fraction is concerned with subjects like the overall scope of the COVID epidemic in the US that would justify an EUA, unblinding protocols etc. Do you need to revisit all of that once you've authorized the first vaccine? — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@carlzimmer Like take a long weekend and order some pizzas but 3 weeks is a lot of fucking time when you should have some pretty strong priors based on other vaccines etc. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@carlzimmer Why should this take 3 weeks though? Is the data intrinsically that complicated? Is there any doubt that J&J will be approved? — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
It's sort of interesting that irresponsibly pessimistic takes about covid tend to get a lot of "engagement" while irresponsibly optimistic ones do not. (Retweeted without typo.) — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
It's sort of interesting that irresponsibly pessimistic takes about covid tend to get a lot of "engagement" while irresponsibility optimistic ones do not. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
lol seriously take your time no worries, i'm probably running like 5 min late myself too. see you in a bit! — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@mattyglesias Also pretty hard to get hotel reservations in Washington DC in February in the middle of a pandemic. Occupancy rates are almost 0.6%. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Hey no rush, not like there's a deadly pandemic or anything — PolitiTweet.org
Ariel Cohen @ArielCohen37
The FDA will hold an advisory committee meeting to discuss the J&J COVID-19 vaccine candidate on Feb. 26
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
RT @jazzmyth: New from @samswey 👇🏼 https://t.co/6NU5oLX0h2 — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@notdred For sure, it's tough to quantify and in reality there are interaction effects and more than two dimensions. Even so, I think it can be clarifying to separate out virtually cost-free interventions like masking from more costly ones. — PolitiTweet.org
