Nate Silver

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @KSoltisAnderson: Worries about their kids' emotional and mental health have gone way up lately as well. Majorities of parents also now… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @KSoltisAnderson: Since @NateSilver538 asked, here are a few key trendlines from items we've asked over time. Since the start of the cri… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @FiveThirtyEight: Why Democrats are done with Iowa and New Hampshire --> https://t.co/CwsE9k1sMM — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

To be fair, though, a lot of the polling on schools yields somewhat apples-to-oranges comparisons because for whatever reason, pollsters have only sporadically been asking questions about it. Ideally you'd want long-running series using the same question wording. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Some evidence that opinion on school re-openings is shifting? More people now say schools aren't opening quickly enough than that they're opening too quickly, though the plurality says "about right pace". Prior polling had tended to indicate more caution. https://t.co/PvOdLVzObs https://t.co/XqOtJVERx4 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@DKThomp @joshgans I'm also not sure it's correct that there's wide variation in past infections in this particular set of countries. They've all been fairly hard-hit at one phase or another and you can't just rely on raw case counts since they differ in how much testing they do. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

This survey data dovetails with the @williamfleitch observation about how a lot is lost in watching sports in venues without fans. Also a lot is lost when you're not watching sports around other people from outside your household. https://t.co/zDJXQ8AJVL — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@DKThomp @JamesSurowiecki What I don't think there's much/any evidence of is that people in the aggregate are suddenly being more careful in February than they were in January because we're closer to the finish line. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@DKThomp @JamesSurowiecki There's SOME evidence that people started to be a BIT more careful as of mid-November (save for holiday-related surges) which interestingly lines up with good vaccine news but also has a lot of confounders. https://t.co/BJ1lSY8qNs — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I think a lot of the disconnect on school reopenings is that there's this binary debate about whether opening schools is "safe" or not when the honest argument for opening them is that it's *pretty* safe and the consequences of keeping them closed are potentially *very* bad. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @JamesSurowiecki: The fact that Tucker Carlson thought it made sense to go after Jill and Joe Biden's public affection for each other ju… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Hard to keep pace with these incredibly dramatic swings in Biden's approval rating. https://t.co/n2XzvOgs0J https://t.co/i5upXlyofH — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @FiveThirtyEight: The best NBA players: https://t.co/qCOIhxvd2d — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias @conorsen I think it's somewhat unlikely that there'll be some inflection point in terms of behavior. Not everyone's getting vaccinated at once, not all restrictions will be lifted, and people's risk tolerances are different. Probably a more linear increase, as was the case in spring 2020. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@WesPegden I hope the partnerships with pharmacies as distribution expands will make it easier. n=1 but getting a vaccine appointment for my parents through RiteAid once that went online in their state (Michigan) was way easier than navigating the state's system. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The CDC director said this week that she thought states would open up vaccinations to all categories by the end of March. But does that mean it will be *easy* to get an appointment on say April 2? Probably not. https://t.co/CDLJK8lUNx https://t.co/qbejnVkIKt — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Something that's confusing is there are a bunch of different milestones: 1. When will states open appointments up to all categories? 2. When will an eager/determined person be able to get an appt? 3. When will vaccines be available on demand with little/no wait? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@jbarro It's pretty complicated to evaluate COVID handling. I think Cuomo is actually a case in point, he's fucked some stuff up massively but done other things pretty well. And there are questions of what people did given the info they had at the time vs what looks good in retrospect. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@EdBelongia Possibly another dumb question but wouldn't the presence of other, possibly more effective vaccines affect the cost-benefit calculation for the EUA? (i.e. there's less benefit if the vaccine has no comparative advantages over others). Or does it evaluate each vaccine in a vacuum? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@notdred Yeah as usual it's incredibly hard to figure out what doses would actually be available on which schedules. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Anyway, I don't think AstraZeneca is in the same bucket as J&J. The clinical trial data is a lot more complicated and so is the question of what role it serves when we have 3 other vaccines to deploy (again, presuming J&J approval). I'd want the FDA to think carefully on it. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

There's sort of a paradoxical thing where the longer we wait to approve the AstraZeneca vaccine, the weaker the case for approving it, since it's more likely we can fulfill all demand with other vaccines (including presumably J&J as a vaccine that doesn't need cold storage). — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Welp, I'd pointed toward polls showing a shift in momentum against Trump among Republican primary voters after 1/6, but after his acquittal, that appears to have reversed. https://t.co/uDf6wL5jkb https://t.co/wAmVPThJpp — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@smotus @EricMGarcia My hot take is that parts of it are in the South, the West, *and* (more controversially) the Midwest. https://t.co/XLKzEEPmHK — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Outmigration of upwardly-mobile professionals from "superstar cities" because of greater remote work would seem to be a nontrivial electoral positive for Democrats going forward. (I've tweeted versions of this take before but it's February in a pandemic so the take bar is low.) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@conorsen @jbarro Warnock-MTG might be the leading senate race for #content of all-time, narrowly eclipsing Beto-Cruz. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@MileHighBrendan We *may* have gotten vaccinations ramped up *just* quickly enough. One more month of delay and I think we'd be fairly big underdogs. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@zeynep Yeah I agree. The Israel data is incredibly encouraging. And I'm happy if people keep masking up for a bit. Just don't want vaccinated people who have been isolating for a year to live in fear of social interactions (post 2nd dose) especially around other vaccinated people. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@zeynep I'm very excited that my parents are both now signed up for vaccine shots but also pretty worried that they're going to read stuff like this and it's going to significantly impair their (post-2nd-shot) quality of life. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@cwarzel Qualifying things in that way can help a bit, but IMO it often involves spending 30 minutes figuring out how to formulate the thought in the right way. Which is fine—that's part of writing, and big accounts have responsibility—but no longer feels like sketching out. — PolitiTweet.org