Nate Silver

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@notdred There's also a category I've encountered of "I know I'm *technically* eligible, but other people need it worse" (this is in NY, where eligibility is fairly broad) that I think might fade away over the next few weeks. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@notdred Like, I've had a couple of friends who were like "I signed up on some waiting list" and had the impression that it was REALLY hard to get an appointment, which it hasn't been for the past couple weeks in NYC. And these are people in like the 90th percentile of news consumption. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@notdred I still think/hope that it's more about people not necessarily knowing that they're eligible and that appointments are available than true hesitancy per se. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@notdred Easy to imagine Alaska having more hesitancy problems than most states. It's young, fairly Republican, and had relatively few COVID deaths so people may have less urgency there. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I was this close to tweeting out an "at least one state will open the vaccine up to everyone by March 15" prediction but no credit for the predictions you keep to yourself. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @Anna_Rothschild: Hi! Are you a student (or recent grad) interested in journalism and video? Apply to be a summer intern at @FiveThirtyE… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@ForecasterEnten The solution is that school should start later which would probably be good for kids' phsycial and mental health anyway. Also as a former night owl you are such a sell-out to the night owls' cause. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

That's because ending Daylight Saving Time is a bad idea! Year-round DST (what is being proposed by Rubio et al) would be awesome! Means no more of those 430pm sunsets we get under Standard Time! — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Trump would have won if they had done this last year (OK probably not). — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@benyt That tweet is funny but I don't think it's true. 1C is broad and includes media but also categories like finance, accounting, IT, car dealerships, graphic design, legal services and many other categories that haven't received vax eligibility in NY yet. https://t.co/kmSZvhBYXm — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias @ModeledBehavior I think it might be something like: There are many appealing aspects of suburban life and the pandemic removed some of the stigma about the suburbs being uncool for people who might otherwise be inclined to live there. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @AlexSamuelsx5: New: Some may interpret Black Americans’ low COVID-19 inoculation rates as vaccine hesitancy. But issues like accessibil… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@EsotericCD He's the favorite. I don't know if he's >50% against the field, but certainly the most likely winner. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@EricTopol Whoa — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@steveplotnicki @jbarro @bendreyfuss Yeah I don't know whether we're talking about pound-for-pound or if volume counts. Chicago has very good staples but it's more of a fixed target, whereas in NYC you can do some incredibly specific triangulation and still never feel like you're caught up. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@EricTopol So they're saying there's only a 2-3 fold reduction even against B.1.351? Am I reading that chart right? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@jbarro @bendreyfuss Lived in Chicago for 15 years and NYC for 11 and Chicago has wonderful food but I don't really buy this. Chicago has better: New American food, bar/comfort food, Mexican food (though NYC is improving), Central/Eastern European food, but NYC is ahead in most other categories. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @laurabronner: Not finding a relationship between two variables doesn't mean it doesn't exist overall. Selection bias, football editio… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

As someone who has not always been happy with the CDC's messaging, I think their new guidance for vaccinated people is quite good. It acknowledges a lot of complexity and uncertainty with phrases like "for now", "still learning", etc. https://t.co/nMWuGfAfFF https://t.co/I0UHHnku9g — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@Neoavatara I mean, I don't know who the audience is for these exactly. In practice, I think it's likely people who were extremely cautious to begin with. So nudging them toward saying "you can see friends/family again once vaccinated, ideally in small groups" is likely a good first step. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@Neoavatara I don't know, I was pleasantly surprised. Of course they're going to err on the risk-averse side. But they say vaccinated people can gather with unvaccinated people in small groups, which is further than I was expecting them to go. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@seungminkim Not a substitute for getting tested but this is super useful! https://t.co/PWrRUtmAdu https://t.co/8KEWpeTG8H — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@NickRiccardi One small thing I think too is that if people aren't able to meet up in public, they may actually spend more time together, e.g. (pre-COVID at least) if you're having people over for dinner you're typically going to spend more time with them than if you meet up at a restaurant. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The number of *unique* contacts is a bit lower in California, however. So the implication here is that in more closed/locked-down states people have fewer contacts *but* they spend more time with the contacts they do have. https://t.co/plXPPq5ixm — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

This is super interesting data on the amount of close contacts people have. Suggests that there aren't terribly large state-by-state differences. e.g. in "locked down" California, the total duration of close contacts is highly similar to the US overall. https://t.co/4mFHL7wtaW https://t.co/9TgFHtxxjo — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Also, a big shout-out to @COVID19Tracking, which is no longer going to be issuing daily reports after a year of very, very hard work. One of the best things on the Internet in a long time! — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

A comparison to Europe is interesting. Their vaccine rollout has been MUCH slower. And they're showing clearer signs of a plateau/rise in cases. A month ago, the US and the EU had the same number of cases. Now they have 70% more cases than we do. https://t.co/y3TIzKjpgA https://t.co/qdQw0X21TL — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The rate of decline looks a bit slower than before. And the amount of COVID remains high. Still, I don't love how public officials hyped up the plateau a week ago, which many people who track the data closely thought might be a function of severe weather affecting reporting. https://t.co/tcyrSvCDDn — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

All key US COVID metrics remain in decline. The 7-day average for cases is the lowest since Oct. 19. And yesterday was the first day with <1,000 deaths since Nov. 29. The decline in hospitalizations has been steady and robust. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Or he could vote for DC/PR statehood so that way he wouldn't need to be the decisive vote anymore. — PolitiTweet.org