Nate Silver

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@Noahpinion I'm not sure its even about variants as it's rather unclear how effective the Chinese vaccines were against COVID-19 1.0. https://t.co/5EjP3CAOVY — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@benyt @daveweigel I actually do think publications have some shortcomings when it comes to understanding how mainstream Democrats think. Biden's chances were treated highly dismissively in the primary despire his nearly always leading in the polls, for instance. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Just 222 COVID deaths reported in the US yesterday, which is the fewest since March 23, 2020. https://t.co/WbBcN2canq https://t.co/FAyvg7tp4Z — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@BenjySarlin @mattyglesias One thing I'd say for sure is that there's often too much focus on *trends* (often hard to predict and subject to interpretation) and not on *levels*, which remain fairly high right now in much of the country. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@BenjySarlin @mattyglesias I get that. I've had a lot of friends who have gotten covid too. But I'm also someone who's deeply interested for professional reasons in how the media covers quantitative information including forecasts and predictions. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias I'd say the data is pretty ambiguous now. Deaths are still declining, the rise in cases has been modest (and has stalled out in the past few days) and is limited to certain parts of the country. And we're gonna start to see the effects of 3-4 million vaccine doses per day soon. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias It's not hard to find examples of non-hypothetical people who grasp at straws to constantly call for new restrictions. It probably also isn't worth starting a bunch of fights by pointing them out by name. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Keeping my fingers crossed but the case rise has started to flatten back out into more of a plateau over the past several days. Maybe the vaccine surge came just in time. Still big problems in some states like Michigan. https://t.co/y6C6LIOkKq https://t.co/hIJgAUC6hy — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@SenhorRaposa I take no pleasure in reporting this. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@SenhorRaposa I can confirm. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Most famous/iconic college basketball game since Duke-Kentucky? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@ZoeMcLaren @zeynep @michaelmina_lab Yeah I can see a lot of upside for sure. Cutting out a whole extra step when you're trying to get people in and out quickly. Avoiding another decision after a year of decision fatigue. But they could probably do more to make you aware of the process for scheduling dose 2. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@zeynep @ZoeMcLaren @michaelmina_lab The state-run sites in NY automatically sign you up for a second Pfizer dose *exactly* three weeks (to the minute!) later. I guess they want to streamline things (and the state-run sites are quite efficient) but they don't even check to see if you have a conflict, etc. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@kmedved Agreed, and both parties certainly act like there are high electoral stakes too. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @samswey: I don’t know how you can confidently claim that voting restrictions won’t matter when previous voting restrictions in those sa… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I should probably try to get my own research on this into reviewable shape. I'm not sure about any of this. But sometimes like there's a perceived "consensus" based on three papers, one of which was flawed, one of which was underpowered, and one of which was limited in scope. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Yeah this too. And maybe organizers are particularly likely to work hard (and *voters* are likely to work hard to make sure their vote counts) when the regulations get a lot of media attention. So in the high-profile cases, you might not see an effect but in the aggregate you do. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The claim that e.g. "political science research shows that voting restrictions don't greatly affect turnout" shouldn't be treated as settled science IMO. My own research shows restrictions do hurt turnout. I know other studies disagree. But there's room for more study on this. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@EricTopol Oh for sure, Michigan is super concerning, both on its own and as a warning about the downside scenarios. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I also think people should be wary about drawing parallels to past surges. There might seem to be a certain inevitability: cases rise slowly at first, then quickly, then deaths rise too. But those came in a world without 3+ million vaccine doses being delivered daily. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Since deaths lag cases, maybe they'll start rising again. Or maybe not since we've vaccinated lots of seniors. I'm too chickenshit to make concrete predictions lol. But the fact that deaths are still declining *for now* seems like important context if you're writing about surges. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Good to see that COVID deaths in the US, after a hiccup, have resumed a decline, even as cases tick up again. https://t.co/WbBcN2canq https://t.co/8yOPr1uvpV — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Changes to state laws that would make it easier for partisan actors to invalidate election results are a greater existential threat to democracy, by an order of magnitude, than the sorts of changes to voting procedures that most states are contemplating. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I don't want to pick on this NYT editor so leaving the name off, but this sort of tweet is kinda misleading. Makes it seem like a big spike in NYC. But look at the city's data and sure the numbers ebb and flow a bit, but basically it's steady-as-she-goes. https://t.co/FzTtPAVIGR https://t.co/sdp3PHLEGd — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias Its almost gaslighting at this point to say "we don't know". — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The correct answer was 27. All MLB teams are allowing at least some fans on Opening Day, though the Red Sox, Nationals and Blue Jays are <20%. https://t.co/hRmUXglAC2 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@AstorAaron I mean, that cuts both ways to some extent. Anecdotally, after a very long 13 months, there's a lot of social distancing fatigue people really seem to want to be done with it (though mask-wearing compliance still high). — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

On the other hand, there's a fairly rapid acceleration in cases in Western New York (i.e. Buffalo, etc.) That's going to affect the statewide numbers if it continues. https://t.co/hAEQH6JnKr https://t.co/OcCqxuIp06 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

There was a lot of confusion caused by the fact that NYC didn't report data for several days, which created the misleading impression of a huge spike when it reported the backlogged data. News organizations should have done a much clearer job of flagging this. https://t.co/rMRzUdKt1O — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

In many respects I find the COVID situation less worrying in NYC than in other places like Michigan. In NYC, cases steady, hospitalizations & deaths declining. You'd like to see cases declining too; Hopefully that happens soon as more people get vaxxed. https://t.co/FzTtPAVIGR https://t.co/ZflemXntVq — PolitiTweet.org