Nate Silver

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Mixed up my i.e. and e.g. there but hey it's a Sunday and this website is free. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

What percentage of COVID-related news coverage is negative doesn't seem like a particularly relevant metric, but the fact that people have fairly bad misconceptions of COVID risks (i.e. Democrats vastly overrate the hospitalization rate) is a better basis for a critique. https://t.co/SPNBDqBygr — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @EquestriaDaily: New Post: The Indianapolis FedEx Shooter Was Apparently In Love With Applejack https://t.co/ucyrUDgIVY #brony #mlp #My… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

What doesn't track here is that although we may not have enough info to make a narrow restriction for certain groups, we *do* have enough to know a *broad* restriction *doesn't* make sense, i.e. the benefits of the vaccine clearly outweigh the risks for the population as a whole. https://t.co/kTOeepXM45 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @JamesSurowiecki: The chances of any data the panel gets in the next 5 days changing its decision are incredibly small - which is why Fa… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Anyway, if you calibrate advice toward extreme risk-aversion, one challenge is that will only resonate with extremely risk-averse people, and they're precisely the people who don't need to be taking more precautions. The moderately risk-averse crowd may tune you out, meanwhile. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

OTOH, I assume many people on this flight are unvaccinated. If you're unvaccinated, the case for double-masking etc. is much stronger. No one's doing it though! But people who are flying a leisure route while unvaccinated probably aren't reading advice about COVID precautions. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The people who are so risk-averse as to be reading articles about what precautions they should take *even after vaccination* are probably not getting on flights in the first place. They probably don't need to be told to be more cautious. In many respects they may be too cautious! — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Zero people wearing face shields or eye protection. One person double-masking (might have missed one or two others). A smattering of N95s. I'm not judging anyone on their facial coverings... but I think this reveals a disconnect in who is reading these columns. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

What inspired this tweet the other day was an article that said even vaccinated people should double-mask and wear face shields when flying. Today I'm on my first flight in more than a year. (Thanks, Pfizer!) It's quite full. What's the reality like? How many face shields? 🧵 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@ashishkjha I'm calling it for "lose dignity". — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@saletan I think that's giving them far too much credit for having a coherent strategy, the necessary range of expertise to accomplish that strategy, and the proper incentives to optimize public health outcomes. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@kurteichenwald Excuse me Kurt, but you seem to be saying that you're smarter than the Dean of the Brown University School of Public Health: https://t.co/Y2G4kzi5lI — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@kurteichenwald Most of the experts agree with me! I just say stuff a little more pointedly. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

And do we really not have enough information to have a better policy *for now* than a blanket ban? Between the J&J data and priors from AZ, you can make a case for directing younger women to use an mRNA vaccine. But it's nuts that say a 75-year-old man can't get a J&J dose now. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I don't really understand the endgame. Wait 2 more weeks (!) to gather more data. Let's say (as seems likely) the data shows there IS a link, but it's very rare. What then? We keep J&J banned because our regulators are insanely risk-averse? https://t.co/FMXHPVIWTi https://t.co/ZXkQ0j5hp7 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@ForecasterEnten tbh one of the nice things about writing a book is that you get a chance to hold serve in a way that's hard to do on social media. It's an opportunity to show folks your thought process and what the world looks like from your (inevitably flawed and biased) vantage point. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Maybe these columns on "what can you do after you're vaccinated?" need to come with a dial where you enter your level of risk-aversion/neuroticism and the advice changes accordingly. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

It seems like a self-own and if anything will entrench the conventional wisdom that Immigration Is A Big Problem For Biden. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

"A senior administration official, speaking on the condition of anonymity because they didn't want their name associated with this obvious load of bull—" — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@richardmskinner @galendruke Yeah that sounds like a good start. You could probably consolidate to 6 plus some 'microstates' but fewer than that gets tricky. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@galendruke @ForecasterEnten Midtown is the new Bushwick. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@galendruke What are the *real* 5 boroughs of New York City? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@galendruke I think what's tricky is that New York is so frickin' big that it's really sort of 3 or 4 cities in one. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@pareene Yeah, I never know how precise to be about differentiating e.g. liberal vs. left vs Democratic. Anyway, liked the story... — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

This is a thoughtful story but it continues to be a mistake to think of New York City as being "very liberal". It's not particularly liberal. It voted for Clinton > Sanders, Cuomo >> Nixon, elected Bloomberg and Giuliani, etc. https://t.co/i0eLtjKlZV https://t.co/bKUXHoBeiN — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @perrybaconjr: .@ryanburge and I dug into all of the new data and research that is coming out on the nones (the religiously-unaffiliated… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @EricTopol: When 1 of 585 Americans have died from covid (0.17%), I don't understand why we would hold up the use of a vaccine with <1… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@notdred It seems plausible we'll be right about at the point for overall vaccine uptake that some metros achieve herd immunity and some don't. NYC, LA, Boston and Miami could be some of the first places to look since they also had high rates of natural infection. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

In possibly related news, COVID hospitalizations have plunged by ~30% in NYC in the past couple of weeks. Cases also sharply down. https://t.co/hAEQH6JnKr https://t.co/6M4eeGqzP6 — PolitiTweet.org