Nate Silver

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

This is not really a *prediction* of the effect this will have since people are bad at bargaining but it's not clear why this position ought to produce any leverage after a midterm in which shitty candidates cost the GOP the U.S. Senate as well as a fair number of House seats. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@nathanwpyle Timberwolf feels a little underestimated here? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I like the author of this story but I find this point uncharacteristically short-sighted. In 2021 people were able to have a relatively normal life. In 2020 they weren't. Controlling for the amount of social activity the vaccines lowered death tolls a ton. https://t.co/VSv1bNZ5gj https://t.co/9X56Ft4RtD — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @jeremyfaust: @NateSilver538 Also, the R of Delta and Omicron is *so much greater than prior variants that the denominator was massively… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I like the author of this story but I find this point uncharacteristically short-sighted. In 2021 people were able to have a relatively normal life. In 2020 they weren't. Controlling for the amount of social activity the vaccines lowered death tolls a ton. https://t.co/VSv1bNZD5R https://t.co/eN3pqtIZNg — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Predicting that civilization would end by 1985 counts as a pretty basic error, I'd think. To the extent he's received scientific accolades, it shows how unseriously the scientific community takes prediction. https://t.co/IAIhx8whY5 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I don't think this is Kaptur's intent but a Democrat offering support to McCarthy is probably not going to be helpful to McCarthy in consolidating the GOP vote. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

This seems like the best analysis of the situation I've read. I tend to doubt that the moderates in the GOP coalition (yes there are a few) would go for e.g. Jordan as speaker. But "anyone but McCarthy" (even if similar to McCarthy) would still count as a win for the dissenters. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Pretty wild "Other than that Mrs. Lincoln, how was the play?" energy here. https://t.co/fqzC7l7IKp https://t.co/myYaG4wVHc — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias There's been a weird batch of Malthusianism in the "liberal"/mainstream media lately (see also the 60 Minutes segment on Ehrlich) and I wonder if it's a fairly bullish sign as other liberal anxieties (e.g. Trump, COVID for most people) fade into the background. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

It's 2023 where I am so Happy New Year everyone! 2022 > 2021 > 2020 so let's hope the streak continues. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@EsotericCD @mattyglesias In principle you could design good algorithms around this, e.g. if I always downvote EsotericCD posts, that doesn't count for much, but if I often like/retweet you but downvote some particularly terrible music take of yours, that sends a good signal. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

And yes NYT did reach out for comment and we declined to participate because it was clear from preliminary conversations that the premise of their article was dumb and ignored their own role in hyping the red wave *in contradiction* to what 538's forecasts showed. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

https://t.co/VuXyaeXVbx — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The article should probably also have mentioned how the NYT spun its own polling that was obviously good for Democrats as having been great news for Republicans instead. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias I think there's an argument that the US (and most of Europe and the Americas) directionally pursued a "flatten the curve" strategy but did so clumsily and inefficiency and would've done better to explicitly embrace one instead of it being a compromise between extremes. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@Chris_arnade I've been convinced for a while that people underestimate how much "crying wolf" undermines their ability to persuade others in the long run. But, most discourse on the Internet isn't meant to persuade. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

If you're gonna retweet some claim about a scary new COVID variant, you probably ought to verify that the person who made the claim hasn't falsely hyped other scary new COVID variants dozens of times over the past few years. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@bendreyfuss I hope and assume he's doing great for inventing a really really cool product and making 7 figures for it but like ... NYT was super smart to grab it at that price and the event already deserves a Narrative History. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@bendreyfuss You should write the (clearly correct) hot take that the Wordle guy sold out for too little. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@jonathanchait @AlecMacGillis It's a (reasonably large) faction but a lot of people within that faction seem happy to speak on behalf of the entire discipline. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@Chris_arnade I think you'd break the algorithm. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

This is an interesting admission that public health has become a political movement more than a field based on medicine or science per se. https://t.co/DOw9p740Ti — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

What cities *haven't* you been to that an algorithm trained on your travel habits would incorrectly predict that you'd been to? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

e.g. in 2020/early 2021, both "moderates" and "radicals" would claim the COVID NPIs they were recommending were temporary (until vaccines etc.) which *was* an honest claim for many people but was also often claimed by people who in fact wanted permanent changes to society. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

One problem with political rhetoric is that one group of people may espouse moderate positions because they in fact hold moderate positions, while other people may espouse the same positions because they're more politically acceptable than the radical positions they in fact hold. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@MattZeitlin I mean it could have zoning laws that didn't make it look like a 500-piece jigsaw puzzle spilled on the floor but overall I like it a lot. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Only 60/20/10 game ever, tied for highest-scoring triple double ever, Mavs came back at ~250:1 odds down 9 with 45 seconds left *and* Luka had to intentionally brick the FT and hit game-tying shot at the end of regulation. Has to be the best individual player game in NBA history? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

https://t.co/BOwCrEtUNv — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

This is a good point. Strategically speaking, the filibuster isn't quite as much of an on-off switch as people assume. The credible threat of further blowing up the filibuster created additional leverage for Biden and Democrats. — PolitiTweet.org