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Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@NickRiccardi @baseballot Georgia, Texas and Arizona are also reasonable answers but (having been in Florida for a week) I think people neglect the extent to which migration into Florida is correlated with conservativism to some degree and how much that hurts Democrats in the Electoral College. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
If NYC Democrats want to win presidential elections they should move to Florida instead of to Hudson or Boulder or what not. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
The "liberals fleeing New York cost New York a Congressional seat!" takes are kind of wrongheaded because if more liberals left New York (and California etc.) that would be quite helpful to Democrats in the Senate and the Electoral College. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
RT @ashishkjha: India's health system is on the verge of collapse America can help. My piece in @washingtonpost on how the world’s olde… — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Miami Is The Sixth Borough 👏 https://t.co/2eNOqy2fxf — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@ReubenR80027912 The plexiglass dividers have some upsides. You have more of your own personal space. And playing 8-handed is more action-packed than 9- or 10. I don't think they'll outlast the pandemic but wouldn't surprise me if 8-handed with clearer partitions between players became the norm. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
In a sign of (take your pick) a) pent-up demand for in-person activity; b) a (crypto-fueled?) gambling boom; c) FLORIDA🌴 A poker tournament in Florida just drew nearly twice as many entries as when the event was last held 2 years ago. (They wound up at ~2500 vs. 1360 in 2019.) — PolitiTweet.org
World Poker Tour @WPT
It's official! #WPTShowdown is now the largest WPT Main Tour event in history with 2,131 entries and counting. 🤝… https://t.co/oJcIMGLtH0
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@mattyglesias I don't know; I guess I just think it's particularly acute here. I suspect there are a number of COVID-related questions for which consuming more news coverage (including from high-prestige outlets) is negatively correlated with COVID knowledge. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@mattyglesias That's part of it. But I think it's also that public health officials frame COVID news in a pessimistic light because they think it will compel people to be more cautious and reporters tend to echo that sentiment (and reporters may have some of the same sentiment themselves). — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
One way in which COVID media coverage is skewed is there's tons of attention to wherever cases are rising but little to where they're declining. e.g. Cases are *plunging* in NYC right now but there's almost no stories about that after weeks of scary news about variants, etc. https://t.co/E91t5G7kZT — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Data on national hospitalization rates by age here. For age 18-49 (orange line) they've swayed around a bit but pretty steady and fairly low. https://t.co/P3gMdtsLoj https://t.co/IUQliVNCTu — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Younger people making up a growing *share* of hospitalizations is a good thing, NYT! It's because old people are getting hospitalized much less! Yes the raw number of young people being hospitalized is up in Michigan, but not really nationally. https://t.co/D2G2gaNgtQ https://t.co/sU3vm8QBav — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@dandrezner @MattGlassman312 I have been in Florida for a week which is like aversion therapy to any remaining irrational pandemic habits. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@MattGlassman312 Yeah this is me basically. And I'd guess that only 10% of the population falls into this category or so. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@conor64 Saucilito is considerably more Democratic, I'd think? And outdoor mask wearing maybe has a tipping point of like 70-30% Biden-Trump at this point? — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
OK it's been a month so checking up on this dude's apocalyptic predictions and yeah as you might have expected they were pretty much full of shit. https://t.co/lOxc8Ioeqp — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Making a note to myself to check up on these in a few weeks but these projections strike me as pretty darn pessimis… https://t.co/1bMaFGVnY4
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@dandrezner Oops sorry: https://t.co/atpnx8b2QN — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
I wonder how much people self-select their peers on the basis of risk-aversion. The people I know personally are mostly quite eager to get back to something roughly normal post-vaccine. (Behavior varied a lot more pre-vaccine.) But it's decidedly not a random sample. https://t.co/9sUjTRsfUp — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
I obviously didn't like the pause in the first place but this is a big step back in the right direction. — PolitiTweet.org
ABC News @ABC
BREAKING: CDC advisory panel votes to resume use of Johnson & Johnson vaccine, with warning of risks. Read more: https://t.co/N0KdqUPD…
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
RT @thehowie: Very useful slide from #JohnsonandJohnson/Jansen today at ACIP placing TTS/CVST as an adverse event with COVID vaccine agains… — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@W_R_Chase Yeah I don't think it's good to publish incomplete survey results without any of the context that normally accompanies them. Axios has done this sort of thing in the past and it's a bad practice. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
RT @onyxfish: It's here! Our project tracking how Congress votes has been renewed for the Biden administration. @wiederkehra and @bycoffe h… — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Anyway, I hope the pause is lifted today. Link: https://t.co/JThhKkyMQG p.s. Somewhat aside, but media orgs, please please please post a link to the entire survey if you're going to describe survey results! — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
This poll gets at an important point. It's not that the J&J pause necessarily increases vaccine hesitancy in the population overall. But it does so, at least according to this data, among people in the "wait-and-see" camp, who are the folks we need to reach right now. https://t.co/ElgseQqYqf — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Turns out that a lot of experts thought the J&J pause was an overreaction, or at least now believe that with a bit more time to reflect, which makes the "WHY AREN'T YOU LISTENING TO THE EXPERTS?" discourse from the other week pretty frustrating. https://t.co/R7GsXgcOsn https://t.co/H8vRFCv7qb — PolitiTweet.org
The New York Times @nytimes
Health officials are leaning toward lifting the pause on the Johnson & Johnson vaccine in the U.S. after finding on… https://t.co/TJ1eQ…
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@mattyglesias The Times should send reporters to a diner in Chelsea or Hell's Kitchen to see what the gays there think about Yang. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@galendruke This is the kind of paragraph that makes one think "yeah, this guy is probably going to win". https://t.co/1nwaxtGtdZ — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
RT @ashishkjha: India is in the throes of a horrendous COVID surge Horrendous They are struggling to get more people vaccinated We are s… — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@steveplotnicki But California had fairly conservative fiscal politics in the 1980s, including passing Prop 13? — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
If Florida is to the 2020s as California is to the 1980s, then maybe you can chart a path where it becomes redder in the short run but bluer in the long run. — PolitiTweet.org
