Nate Silver

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @laurabronner: How the unevenness of America's democracy threatens to unravel it, by @baseballot, @elena___mejia and me: https://t.co/G… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@ddayen I appreciate that you're being consistent here. But a fairly large fraction of candidates exit the presidental race with their reputations worsened, or at the very least not bolstered. So I think it's worth giving some credit to candidates who outperform expectations. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@ddayen What about Sanders? He's a much better politician than any of the other people you mentioned. But otherwise that description would seem to apply to him as much as it does to say Ron Paul. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@ddayen Is Bernie Sanders a celebrity? Is Barack Obama a celebrity? Is Eric Swalwell a celebrity? Is Tom Tancredo a celebrity? Is Fred Karger a celebrity? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@ddayen He's a celebrity for... taking substantive but unorthodox policy positions (e.g. UBI) and developing a respectably-sized constituency for them despite largely dismissive media coverage in the 2020 primary? (Granted, he hasn't run his mayoral campaign that way.) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @AlexSamuelsx5: It’s that time!!! Follow along for insightful analysis from my super smart @FiveThirtyEight colleagues! https://t.co/8rX… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@allahpundit You're starting to turn into Allahpundit Feigl-Ding. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@DKThomp Yeah, this one should never have left the faculty lounge. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@Nate_Cohn @conorsen Yeah, gotcha. Although it does seem to be a bit tricky at first glance. I guess you can get this if Minnesota can be blue, though I tend to doubt a Democrat would hold WI/MI/MN but lose NE-2. https://t.co/kcW4Ho12o2 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@Nate_Cohn @conorsen Takeaway seems to be that EC ties are much less likely with the new apportionment? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The MIT study did *not* say that distance doesn't matter. To think it did is a dead giveaway that the author has poor reading comprehension and/or only reads headlines. See @zeynep on this: https://t.co/uNHljoGZgU — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I think the CDC has screwed some stuff up but had to stop reading when the author of this piece got something completely wrong in the 2nd paragraph. https://t.co/2Go0m7ynul https://t.co/WUi8uYtyPR — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Hmm... the framing of the "situation at border with Mexico" is more than a bit question-begging. By its very nature, it sounds like something one ought to be concerned about. It's sort like asking "is the crisis at the border a crisis?". — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Adams has very plausible chances but it's hard not to be reminded of December 2015 when you'd talk to Republican campaigns about the state of the race and they'd tell you all about their plans for beating Ted Cruz while totally ignoring Trump. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@matthew_barlowe This is kind of a strawman? I didn't claim there was zero coverage of the decline. I said there ought to be more coverage, and I'd be surprised if you could demonstrate that what little coverage there has been is proportionate to the "OMG 4th wave!!!" coverage from a month ago. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@matthew_barlowe This is kind of a strawman? I didn't claim there was zero coverage of the decline. I said there ought to be more coverage, and I'd be surprised if you could demonstrate that what little coverage there has been is propionate to the "OMG 4th wave!!!" coverage from a month ago. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Given how much was written about a relatively modest increase in COVID cases in the US a month or so ago, there should probably be more coverage of the ~20% decline over the past two weeks, which reflects the power of the vaccines among other things. https://t.co/y6C6LIOkKq https://t.co/qYm0peZmyP — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@IChotiner @jbarro The best defense of Carville has always been that he's a low OBP, high slugging percentage guy and I thought that was pretty true here too. Some stuff I thought was smart (e.g. pointing out that Democrats are too dismissive about Florida) but also a lot of swings and misses. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@jbarro It's a messaging failure to the extent it makes him sound like he's stuck in the metaphors of 1996 or 2004 but it's nonetheless sort of hilarious that some people didn't recognize the language as metaphorical. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@thehowie I don't quite get the obsession with outdoor masking one way or the other! I think the left fringe probably manifested itself more at earlier stages of the debate, when it came to things like very long-term school closures and restrictions on outdoor activity. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@eliglazier * I don't think it's obvious from first principles that a desire for stricter COVID restrictions should be seen as a liberal policy position, but that's how things seem to have shaped up in the United States. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@eliglazier I should clarify: since in this case the center has shifted rightward*, the right fringe has shifted even more rightward. The left fringe has probably also shifted rightward. I'm just saying everything moves relative to that center of gravity. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Banal observation. But as the center of gravity on COVID restrictions has shifted toward more of a risk-mitigation approach—a change I think is long overdue, BTW—it's telling that the fringes have also shifted toward more extreme positions. https://t.co/6GQ2lEZXe2 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

There's a lot of "Florida is cooking the books!" in the replies, which is an ungrounded conspiracy theory. If you don't trust their COVID data, look at excess deaths. Excess deaths in FL are 17% above normal, which is BETTER than the US average of 21%. https://t.co/n9thzCRW8M — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@perrybaconjr @hiattf @RuthMarcus @FiveThirtyEight @micahcohen Hey Perry, it was fantastic to work with you. I've learned so much from reading your reporting and analysis for many years now, and I look forward to your continued outstanding work with the Washington Post. Thank you and congratulations! — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Is Yang a celebrity? He was fairly obscure then became semi-well-known for running a relatively policy-centric campaign for president. He's taking advantage of his higher name recognition. But the critique would seem to be that he's inexperienced, not that he's a "celebrity". — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@luckytran It's weird to me to make this about Florida when their statistics are almost exactly average for the United States. If you want to argue that the US overall has done worse than Vietnam, I'd happily agree. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Florida is 28th in the US in COVID deaths per capita and 22nd in the US in COVID cases per capita. In other words, pretty much right at the average. There are a lot of bad takes about Florida. https://t.co/qTD00nn5YQ — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@MarkHarrisNYC It also has the third highest population. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @galendruke: 🎧 New pod 🎧 We've got a science-y episode for you today... -- Polls of vaccination attitudes post-J&J pause -- How Ameri… — PolitiTweet.org