Nate Silver

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@TPCarney @felixsalmon Not necessarily a data issue per se but probably a somewhat misspecified model. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@kmedved Yeah, and their rate of natural immunity is probably pretty similar to ours... https://t.co/9MZmdFdEmw https://t.co/CBH6yU2cru — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@DKThomp The "I've already had COVID so I don't need a vaccine" is the hesitancy argument I tend to encounter the most IRL (obviously my sample is biased). I try to pitch people on a one-shot vaccine (J&J) when I hear it although I'm not sure I've had much success so far. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @joshuasweitz: We did this math weeks ago and released as dashboard on 4/20. Perhaps @NateSilver538 could help amplify (and happy to ha… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@notdred Those definitely look interesting and reasonable although intuitively I wonder if they have the state-by-state constants tuned a little too high. I'm skeptical there is quite this much of a difference on either side of the Minnesota-Iowa border, for example. https://t.co/W7TJrPf3tG — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @ashishkjha: @NateSilver538 Agree with this. Which is why my best guess is now about 60% of US has some immunity. Also why Israel and U… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

And, of course, there will be less and less overlap over time, since unvaccinated people are disproportionately more likely to get COVID going forward. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

You can't just add up the ~33% who had COVID and the ~45% who've been vaccinated because there is some overlap between those groups. But survey data etc. suggests less overlap than you'd think since unvaccinated people tend to have been taking fewer precautions against COVID. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

One thing I find a bit weird is that discussion of how the herd immunity math might play out in the US often brushes past the role that natural immunity (from having had COVID) plays. Experts estimate that ~1/3 of the US population has had COVID at some point. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@EsotericCD Chicago has a pragmatic streak that Brookline, MA lacks. And generally true of the Midwest vs. the Northeast, though the Northeast has more pragmatism than the West Coast. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

There's probably an inverted U shape between educational attainment and Following The Science™ on COVID. (Not a causal relationship since there are confounders such as partisanship.) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Yeah the data suggest there was a behavioral shift in mid-March. Probably based on some combination of cases declining, vaccine optimism, warmer weather & fatigue after a year of distancing. Not many were waiting for the CDC & media to give their OK before going "back to normal". — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @trvrb: @NateSilver538 And maybe to clarify slightly: The rapidly growing fraction of P.1 across the US (https://t.co/GnlDIzwqv3) is an… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @aaronecarroll: @NateSilver538 My number one pet peeve of science reporting is focusing on the relative risk/change instead of the absol… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @trvrb: @NateSilver538 I think important to approach this with counts rather than frequency. Here, I did something similar to https://t.… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@NickRiccardi @juliettekayyem I guess 1) I'm just not sure how many people that is and think they're probably over-represented online; 2) their behavior may change based on some combination of overcoming pandemic-related anxiety and FOMO 3) I suspect most of them were fairly domestic/introverted to begin with — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@NickRiccardi @juliettekayyem At some point the "can" part (in the sense of what might be optimal for public health or what public health authorities recommend) may become meaningless. If this goes on much longer most people *will* live life without onerous precautions, whether it's advisable to do so or not. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@DrEricDing I think you're a constant source of bad-faith scaremongering. I don't think it has been good for public health. I have better things to do than to respond to you on a case by case basis. But NYC is where I live so I wanted to respond to this particular BS. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

This guy is a constant source of bad information. It went from 2.6% of sequences sampled to 3.4% which is well within the margin of sampling error. Also the overall number of cases is plummeting in NYC so the absolute number of P1 cases is likely steady or declining. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Here's the survey The Guardian cited. Basically a firearms association saying "yeah, gun sales are up!" from retailers who self-selected to respond to them. Gotta have a better BS detector than to frame a whole narrative around this. https://t.co/ftADBAaZSF — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Seeing this claim that gun ownership among Black Americans is up 58%, but it was based on a survey of firearms retailers who were asked to subjectively estimate how much sales increased among different demographic groups by a firearms trade association. Not scientific @guardian. https://t.co/7FuHaXBRLh — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

There's some horseshoe theory on questions like "do vaccines block transmission?" —If you don't know much you probably assume they do —If you obsessively follow the science you know they *mostly* (though not 100%) do —But if you're somewhere in between you might think they don't — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I find this NJEM paper amusing because it treats people as misinformed and partisan unless they precisely follow "core CDC guidance" when CDC guidance is often i) incredibly confusing and/or ii) tends to be slow to update so often lags the latest science. https://t.co/R0scOi9CP3 https://t.co/TwbbWDW5MZ — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

https://t.co/wtlIwG1H3k — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@youyanggu First doses have fallen by considerably more than 200k/day, though. And in theory, some people who would have gotten J&J should have switched to an mRNA vaccine with widespread availability in most states. https://t.co/372zrqqkLr — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@youyanggu The timing is *very* precisely timed to the J&J pause, though, especially if you look at the number of first doses administered. I agree that things may have started to decline in a couple of weeks anyway, but I think it would have been more U-shaped than V-shaped. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Fairly convincing data that the J&J pause was responsible for a considerable decline in vaccination rates. Hopefully these trends will level off or reverse themselves. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @donnellymjd: @NateSilver538 Not that the Times asked us, but our scenarios thought a drop in April was more likely than a plateau at th… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@thehowie And to be fair, we had an usually cold first few weeks of March in NYC. I don't mean to imply this stuff is easy to forecast... — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

March 31: experts quoted in the NYT predict COVID cases will plateau or continue to rise in New York City. "Mid-to late May before vaccinations win the tug of war." What actually happened? Cases starting falling immediately, now down 60% in a month. https://t.co/zvnXVI2WqJ https://t.co/rwMpC1xE0F — PolitiTweet.org