Nate Silver

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @jazzmyth: My baby is out in the world 😭 So excited to debut our 🏀 2021 @WNBA FORECAST!!🏀 It's @FiveThirtyEight's first women sports for… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@JamesSurowiecki @kmedved With one or two exceptions, the people in that Vox article are incredibly conservative when it comes to describing what behaviors they're engaging in personally though. https://t.co/0KT39t9bqK — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @ryanabest: Coming into the 25th #WNBA season, I'm so excited to announce the launch of our inaugural @FiveThirtyEight #WNBA forecast!!… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@ZoeMcLaren There's situations where it's like there's an old couple taking a stroll with N95s on and I'll put it up just to make them more comfortable. Also a lot of situations with scaffolding or construction in NYC where airflow is mediocre. But yeah might try the wrist thing. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@ZoeMcLaren There's also force of habit. I'll tell myself that I don't need to wear a mask outdoors in most settings, but I'll find that I've pulled it up without even realizing it sometimes when walking around NYC. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@kmedved @JamesSurowiecki Most states weren't necessarily distinguishing frontline HCW from other HCW. And the people surveyed here were mostly either academics or gov't employees, who were usually also eligible for other reasons. But yeah would have been better if we'd known what % were vaxxed. https://t.co/HbuaCAGZ1Q — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@JuliaLMarcus I guess I was thinking that most epidemiologists would qualify under some or another category that most states carve out (e.g. health care worker, state employee, university faculty). But yeah I wish there had been a question about vaccination. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias My guess is that they have plenty of friends and/or very nice families but have also been very busy! There is a serious question lurking behind a lot of the COVID data though, which is how many Americans have little-to-no routine social contact (even pre-pandemic). — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Not every epidemiologist is engaged in crafting public health guidance. But I sort of wonder if the guidance would be better if it was written by people who were getting out and about into their communities to some reasonable degree, and maybe there isn't enough of that here. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

At the same time, the median American is living in a way that increasingly resembles the pre-pandemic "normal" by this point, for better and worse. And this is obviously pretty far removed from that. https://t.co/nYkx4su6Yu — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Yeah, there isn't a perfect baseline here. In theory, the survey tries to get around it by asking not only what they've done but also what they "would have done if necessary". Might have better if they had 3 categories (have done / would do / wouldn't do). https://t.co/o70UinKWGc — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

They're also stricter than they themselves think they need to be. 94% say it's safe for vaccinated people to gather indoors with other vaccinated people in some capacity. But a majority of them aren't doing so, personally. A quarter aren't even meeting friends *outdoors* yet. https://t.co/k99Zpbt2m7 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Assuming nearly all are vaccinated by this point—which I assume is a fairly safe assumption (the survey is limited to the US)—my takeaway is that epidemiologists are extremely risk-averse, much more so than public health guidelines say they need to be. https://t.co/4NexiEJ0t5 https://t.co/YNgggaf0P6 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@MattZeitlin I try to avoid this question but only because I hate having to explain what my job is if someone tries to reciprocate. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@lxeagle17 @baseballot Nothing like that, and it was a pretty bitter divorce. (Although, of course, those other situations were pretty bitter too...) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@baseballot A's to Portland or Vegas, Rays to Charlotte or Nashville, expand to Montreal and Mexico City. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@jazayerli @joe_sheehan Good catch! I think it would have been fairly untenable 15 years ago but much more workable today. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@baseballot @joe_sheehan MLB as a search topic. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@joe_sheehan I don't know to what extent Vegas's long-term growth will be affected by the pandemic, but it's still a fast-growing area. The better comp is probably to something like Denver, which was ~1.9m people in the metro when the Rockies moved in there and is now ~3.0m. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@allahpundit I mean, it's not an error! They're pretty liberal about trying to tell a narrative with the data. Similar to February when they were really hyping up a blip that was mostly caused by reporting delays because of winter storms. https://t.co/P6vUhR1h0V — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@joe_sheehan It's among the leading markets for baseball avidity. I'm not saying it would be massively successful but I think it would probably rank in the 20-25 range out of 30 as far as the potential fan base goes. https://t.co/g23ySNrQc3 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@joe_sheehan I went to a Golden Knights game just before the pandemic and was shocked at how enthusiastic the crowd was, and it was pretty much all locals and not people in from casinos or conventions. I think Vegas may punch above its weight as a sports town. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@allahpundit Also much harder to find a test back then, so the positive test rate was about twice as high a year ago as it is now and there was probably considerably more COVID spread overall. https://t.co/kEgDnN4m6Q — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@thehowie Yeah, NY had pretty liberal eligibility criteria, so we're way above average on % of younger people vaccinated but slightly below average on age 65+. It will be interesting to look back and see if there were observable effects on excess deaths, when herd effects kicked in, etc. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

COVID cases have fallen by ~80% in the past 5 or 6 weeks in New York City, according to both state and city data. Starting to look a lot like Israel. https://t.co/FzTtPAVIGR https://t.co/kglY1X0sTy — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Sometimes I share the grievances! My guess is that history will show remote learning to have been a major policy failure, for instance. But there's not much evidence that it's *unpopular*. For the most part, school districts' policies reflect public opinion in their communities. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Yeah there's been way too much extrapolating from people's personal grievances to "this is a big problem for Biden/Democrats!". — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias I think it's interesting that most of the experts cited are still being quite cautious in their personal behaviors, though, and they sort of admit it's out of habit rather than reflecting some deeply considered calculation about tradeoffs, etc. https://t.co/kGZXdpAPAa — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @micahcohen: Is there space in the GOP for Cheney-esque Republicans? I filled in as host for the @538politics pod this week, so instead… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I guess the good news is a .234 leaguewide batting average will probably force MLB to make the changes 3 years from now (move mound back, pitch clock) that it should have made 3 years ago. — PolitiTweet.org