Nate Silver

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I don't know if the US has passed or will soon reach the herd immunity threshold and my prior is the answer is complicated (i.e. it's regional, depends on variants, etc.) It does seem like folks probably ought to wait a bit before making confident proclamations either way. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Good day to re-up this one too. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias It's been a weird crisis where if you actually invest more time to figure out what the range of scientific opinion is, you'll often get labelled as a contrarian by people who haven't. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Gobert had by far the best defensive season among the 8 years for which we're able to calculate RAPTOR based on player tracking data. I'm not sure I'd have him No. 2 if I actually had an MVP ballot, but top 5 not crazy. https://t.co/ZyWsm0s1iT — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RAPTOR has a fairly eclectic NBA MVP ballot, but with Jokic way out in front. Note that this is based on WAR, which heavily weights for playing time. On a per-minute basis, Jokic still 1 but Embiid moves into a tie for 2nd. https://t.co/N0HT6rnhdj https://t.co/IeKuuCSGGD — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Closing schools for in-person learning probably has few near-term effects on GDP, for instance. But learning loss and loss of social activity for children could plausibly have some large long-term consequences, "economic" and otherwise. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Re-upping this from the @MrRBourne book because I've seen some recent efforts to measure the impact of "lockdowns" that tend to evaluate the effects on "the economy" very narrowly (e.g. through GDP) instead of considering the broader impacts on short- and long-term well-being. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@NateDuncanNBA Kinda wonder if today is what gets us to the pick-your-opponent thing. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@MattZeitlin Indeed, I'm fairly literate but I'm not familiar with the term "reëlection", which I assume is some sort of German loanword? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@kavithadavidson Sort of feels like it's collectively dawning on the city that we have 2 of the top 4 seeds in the East at the same time our COVID cases are plummeting. Gonna be some very hot tickets. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

One of the more surprising playoff runs in recent NBA memory. Knicks were the 4th least likely team to make the playoffs in our projections at the start of the season, ahead of only Detroit, Cleveland, and Oklahoma City. Now they'll host a playoff series. https://t.co/C7zTCVgTuD https://t.co/XM4nytPcTw — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

So it isn't necessarily enough for a candidate to catch fire late and win with say 21% of the vote. They need fairly broad support. Some endorsers may regret not expressing a Yang vs. Adams preference. At the same time, expressing such a preference might entrench their leads. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Adams and Yang's lead (they're at ~20% while the next tier down is at ~10%) is more robust than it seems because of ranked choice voting. They tend to gain considerably more than other candidates as 2nd, 3rd etc choices. https://t.co/foZf4Irj22 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

A lot of NYC endorsement activity directed at neither of the candidates (Adams and Yang) who are currently leading in the polls. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@allahpundit Did you vote for Beto or Elizabeth Warren? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@allahpundit Your tweet may have maintained a pretense of being critical but yet it implicitly endorsed EFD's authority. Very Lib move. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@allahpundit tbh if you're retweeting fiegl-ding you're pretty much coming out as a lib — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@zeynep @CT_Bergstrom The survey found though that 80% of participants were fully vaccinated (and most others were partly vaccinated) so Carl's point didn't hold up well tbh. https://t.co/SiZgJNlh6d — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

And the final answer is that the 7-day average has fallen to ~35K cases per day. So the optimists among you were right. https://t.co/qTD00nn5YQ — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@Noahpinion (Some of the replies here are sort of proving the point.) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@Noahpinion I don't know why people are so hung up on masks, but I think there are probably a lot of mental health/welfare gains from nudging risk-averse vaccinated people toward resuming activities they enjoy. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Maybe the new CDC guidance would be too liberal in a world where everyone listened to CDC guidance, but in the real world the people to listen to the CDC are liable to be both far more risk-averse and far more vaccinated than the population overall. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Informative article on COVID variants but this metaphor is like six times more complex than the thing it's describing. https://t.co/51gI3gul8r https://t.co/4sFWQWxRUL — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Reasonable people can disagree with the new CDC guidance—which is aggressive!—but the shift does reveal that there are a pretty wide range of behaviors that are consistent with "following the science" and people should be more sparing with use of that phraseology. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Yes, let's look at this giant "surge" in Singapore. https://t.co/u6zvljFqde — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@saletan I think that's why the CDC's announcement today was kind of surprising. It sort of broke that cycle; it was like your friend making a point of showing up 15 minutes early. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @ashishkjha: I am not aware of any fully vaccinated person asymptomatically infecting another person I'm not saying it never happens or… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@conor64 @JamesSurowiecki Yeah the J&J trial results were based on moderate to severe COVID whereas MLB is (I believe) still testing very rigorously and picking up lots of mild and asymptomatic cases. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@JamesSurowiecki Say 40 people on the team plane, ordinarily 30 would have been infected in a superspreader event but J&J is ~70% effective so 8 are infected instead. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@JamesSurowiecki Not independent though if say they were all exposed to a superspreader event on the team plane. — PolitiTweet.org