Nate Silver

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias It's easy enough to imagine that the axis of conflict next Thanksgiving/Christmas is about 4-8 person gatherings vs. Big Extended Family gatherings. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@notdred Yeah I think not having kids affects my priors on these questions a lot. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@notdred Yeah, exactly. And outdoors vs. indoors is a pretty gigantic tiebreaker. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Seems like gathering outdoors on 7/4 should be a safer bet than gathering indoors for the winter holidays? Outdoors is much safer than indoors, of course. And while I'm not super worried, winter brings some uncertainty about variants and seasonality. https://t.co/tWWxnOSJDw https://t.co/PoINUc6kNT — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @SantulN: Have KD, Kyrie and Harden played enough together for the Nets to win the title? My latest for @FiveThirtyEight: https://t.co/l… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Fortunately, the differences seem to be more about mild illness than severe illness. All of them are saving a lot of lives. At the same time, their efficacy against mild illness probably has some impact on policy, e.g. in how likely vaccinated people are to transmit to others. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I suppose I'll keep this vague but it seems like there aren't particularly earnest discussions about how some of the vaccines are more effective than others, especially against variants. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

7 no-hitters this season but (unless I'm doing this wrong) no games in which a team has had zero strikeouts. https://t.co/hAO0FrVWds — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

They're saying vaccinated people are very unlikely to contract or transmit the virus so they don't have to wear masks in most circumstances. It may not be optimal public health guidance if e.g. it discourages unvaccinated people from wearing masks. But it's not *confusing*. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@JonahDispatch @mattyglesias Someone should do a Rawlsian analysis of moral reasoning about COVID-19 precautionary behavior behind the surgical mask of ignorance. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@CT_Bergstrom @BillHanage Did you not read the tweet I linked from the NYT journalist? 80% were fully vaccinated *at the time they completed the survey*, not by May 1. Carl, I've dealt with other pedants before, but never someone who so consistently goes off against me for things I'm mostly right about! — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Oops, forgot the link to the announcement. No presale or anything yet, it's early days. But I'm super excited about the subject matter and the gameplan my editors and I have for investigating it. https://t.co/cXxttgKAPe — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Some Personal News™: I'm beginning work on a new book about gambling and risk! 🎲 It's in the very early stages, but looking forward to getting back to my roots—I was a poker player before I ever began covering politics—and meeting and interviewing lots of interesting people. https://t.co/mGIRc3fi1S — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@CT_Bergstrom You might want to cool your jets a little, BTW, after going on a big rant on me about this the other week when the claim I made was correct all along: https://t.co/KHfS1wfX8b — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@CT_Bergstrom On the other hand, it also doesn't account for opened restaurants, which creates a bias in the opposite direction. It's not a bad metric when so of the data that people cite doesn't have any baseline for comparison at all. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@jbarro It seems like a fairly strange breakdown since they're including lots of fixed costs? The restaurant still makes more/loses less if you order one of these sandwiches from them than if you don't. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @Nate_Cohn: A great question, with at least three big moving pieces to my mind--particularly on the TX side of the equation: https://t… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

So if someone says "Even though I'm vaccinated, I still haven't been to a restaurant" that doesn't tell you that much until you know their pre-pandemic baseline. There can be a lot of talking past one another if you try to use dining out as a common denominator. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

As an aside, one reason restaurants have been such a heated focal point in COVID debates is that there is a lot of heterogeneity in how often people go out to eat, i.e. some people almost never do and some people (e.g. in NYC) eat almost every meal out. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

In one of the perhaps more robust indicators of "getting back to normal", restaurant traffic in the US is now 90-100% of its pre-pandemic baseline. https://t.co/KWA3Itdp1J https://t.co/VqS1T6xzaw — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Which state is the Democratic nominee for president more likely to win in 2024? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@conorsen I'm bullish-ish on Manhattan, though I think there's a chance it becomes more London/Paris/Romeish where the center city is more museum-like. Midtown is kind of fugly though and may not benefit from that trend. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@conorsen Not a lot of intrinsic demand for that neighborhood in particular. I think people miss that most Manahttan neighborhoods are principally residential. If there's decline in demand for office space, Midtown will eventually become more residentially desirable but may take ~10 years. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias Despite my occasional barbs with them I generally think epi/public health twitter is very smart and substantive, but this platform tends to encourage a lot of wagon-circling. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @mattyglesias: @NateSilver538 I feel like this pandemic has frequently illustrated the risks of letting unrepresentative convenience sam… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I sorta agree with this but I also think there's a fairly complicated issue of scientists who speak the most confidently or frequently to the media tending to define the media's idea of the scientific consensus when the actual consensus is sometimes more uncertain. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@pbump Going to baseball games at 20% capacity was fun while it lasted. No lines for anything and plenty of space to stretch out. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Language a bit ambiguous in Cuomo's announcement but apparently this means ~63% capacity at Knicks' playoff games, mostly in vaccinated-only sections. https://t.co/IvDkoxr9Un — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @thehowie: @NateSilver538 So true. Our behaviors are permanently changed; there may well be regions that have reached true community pro… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @ne0liberal: Great article on the aerosols vs. droplets debate and how it was physicists, not health experts, who made the discovery.… — PolitiTweet.org