Nate Silver

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@ZoeMcLaren @jaredtendler You should play! I'm sure you'd be super good. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@ZoeMcLaren @jaredtendler I have somehow not read Jared's book yet but will be sure to do so! Thank you for the recommendation. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@conorsen I'm agnostic on most things herd immunity and I think the importance of seasonality is potentially being understated, but it's still sort of remarkable that the big article that came out about it a few weeks ago barely considered the role of natural immunity. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias I think that's a bit misleading because it's hard to predict the precise ways in which a loss of credibility might manifest itself. But if you want undue specificity, it's certainly not great for persuading people to trust the science on climate change. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias It's not just "the media" but the liberal/scientific establishment generally that has credibility at stake. Are there any potential downstream consequences to "Trump got it right and the WHO got it wrong"? Probably, I'd think. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias I think you're engaging in some (unusual for you) whataboutism here. If convincing evidence of a lab leak were to emerge, it would be credibility-damaging for the media, and "the establishment" generally, on roughly an amplifying-dubious-Iraq/WMD-claims magnitude. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@conorsen Yeah hadn't thought about it but it's maybe 80% male as opposed to the typical ~70% Knicks/Rangers default. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Probably the loudest I've ever heard Madison Square Garden. People are ecstatic. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@tylerblack32 @GidMK @ZoeMcLaren If you're surprised that I place a premium on intellectual consistency and honesty then the option is always there to unfollow. Anyway this has turned into a dumb fight. Have a great night. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@GidMK @tylerblack32 @ZoeMcLaren Given that this is a thread about strawman arguments, mayyyyybe you shouldnt claim with no evidence or examples that people assume they "perfectly correlate" as opposed to the very intuitive assumption that they somewhat correlate? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@GidMK @tylerblack32 The reason I responded as I did is because the first tweet in your thread indeed made the hyperboilc claim that lockdowns decrease suicides. So yeah there was a little bit of hyperbole (equating suicides to overall mental health) in response. Welcome to the Internet. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@GidMK @tylerblack32 If you think you're being straw-manned, you should be more precise about what you're saying. In various tweets in your thread, you're both suggesting that lockdowns decrease suicides and that there's no relationship between them. The former is a much more ambitious claim. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

My priors: Lab leak 60% (⬆️ +20%) Natural origin 40% (⬇️ -20%) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@benyt Feels like there are also a lot of alternate histories where USA Today becomes a massively successful digital-savvy brand. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I'm fairly happy to short the "actually, lockdowns were good for people's mental health!" position as better evidence comes out over the next several years. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

We Asked 814 Epidemiologists When You'll Be Allowed To Feel Joy Again. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Being back to a neighborhood/city/etc where you used to live but haven't been to in a while is always kind of an intense mood. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @youyanggu: @NateSilver538 Yeah it seems like the amount of backlash from the scientific community for downplaying the virus is orders o… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

$300 on a Nets Game 1 playoff ticket can get you a pretty darned good seat in the lower bowl at Barclays. $300 on a Knicks Game 1 playoff ticket can barely get you into Madison Square Garden at all. https://t.co/iGru9baUS9 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @jburnmurdoch: SCOOP: Public Health England has presented the first real-world data on vaccine efficacy against B.1.617.2, the variant… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@baseballot @Oooooo_Donna Yeah the Official Nate Methodology is to only count properly worn masks and only count people who are walking past me. If I also counted people who are seated or loitering, probably more like 20-25%. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Outdoor masking down to maybe 30% in Manhattan. Are there places left in the US where it still predominates? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@allahpundit In fairness, who could have predicted that "try to avoid human contact for the next 15 months" would have adverse consequences on people's mental health? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I would note that statistical models predicting COVID cases were totally all over the place at this point in time. No consensus at all. So this is less a case of "the science was wrong" and more one of "media narrative overstated the degree of consensus". https://t.co/UpZNmgjdN8 https://t.co/ezYwkNnExe — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Interesting to contrast the doom-and-gloom in this article from last month ("increasingly clear that the next few months will be painful") with the actual trajectory of COVID cases in the US, which have fallen by 60% since it was written. https://t.co/bmHptDPNkO https://t.co/1V4WgFbhNm — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @galendruke: Guess before you listen to the new pod (in which we address the answer)... What percent of Americans believe that at least… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@bendreyfuss Maybe you should take more trains? No need to time your arrival so precisely. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@Popehat Yeah, in certain settings. And in those settings it has higher symbolic/signaling power than before. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias Most of our information problems come from abbreviating "information problems" as "info probs". — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

It tells you something that people are very often hypocritical and yet rarely are self-aware about it, i.e. you won't often hear a statement along the lines of "I know I might sound hypocritical, but—" — PolitiTweet.org