Matthew Yglesias

Matthew Yglesias @mattyglesias

How to stop interest rate hikes from crushing housing supply: — Always Be Making Pro-Supply Regulatory Changes So More Projects Pencil Out Even With Slowing Demand — Deficit reduction https://t.co/xN9gsQ3FMV https://t.co/d48XgY4zKL — PolitiTweet.org

Matthew Yglesias @mattyglesias

The tricky part of disinflation is that a good news CPI print sends stocks soaring which is itself inflationary so the Fed needs to communicate “no no no no we’re still raising rates” and make everyone sad again. — PolitiTweet.org

Matthew Yglesias @mattyglesias

RT @nataliemj10: This. I continue to be impressed by Fox News's data/polling teams and those higher up who clearly support and protect the… — PolitiTweet.org

Matthew Yglesias @mattyglesias

@MarcBodnick @ijbailey @davidshor It’s important to recall that the typical young person in America (like the typical old person!) has $0 in student loan debt and was not helped by this initiative so I’m skeptical Biden gained votes this way but no clear sign of a backlash. — PolitiTweet.org

Matthew Yglesias @mattyglesias

@MarcBodnick @ijbailey @davidshor Yeah I feel torn here — I think student debt forgiveness was a pretty bad idea on the merits but it seems to have worked out okay politically even if this youth vote stuff is overrated. — PolitiTweet.org

Matthew Yglesias @mattyglesias

The 2023 Supreme Court election in Wisconsin is going to be incredibly important to fixing this. Important that the Dem candidate (a) had a lot of money (b) does not lose votes over peripheral issues. — PolitiTweet.org

Matthew Yglesias @mattyglesias

Seems bad…. — PolitiTweet.org

Matthew Yglesias @mattyglesias

Mandela Barnes had a lot of money (including from me!) especially when you consider that hard $$ buys more ads than group $$. He just came up short, unfortunately, there’s no stab in the back story here. — PolitiTweet.org

Matthew Yglesias @mattyglesias

@emre_mayo Right — Fox News is one of the most important institutions in American politics and MSNBC doesn’t matter at all. — PolitiTweet.org

Matthew Yglesias @mattyglesias

And I think by 2024 there will be a nice story where US energy production 📈 and emissions 📉 with plenty of new domestic manufacturing etc etc etc to point to. — PolitiTweet.org

Matthew Yglesias @mattyglesias

If you start with the unrealistic expectation that voters will reward you for big change you’ll miss what an incredible success this is but it’s really hard to make policy changes this large without angering people and they pulled it off. — PolitiTweet.org

Matthew Yglesias @mattyglesias

It’s hard to right articles about things not happening but I think the most underrated aspect of the midterms is that with IRA Democrats managed to pass a genuinely significant partisan bill with zero backlash — that’s very unusual and speaks to smart design + good message. — PolitiTweet.org

Matthew Yglesias @mattyglesias

I dunno what will happen but my main view is that there is an underrated zone of policy disagreement in GOP circles (try again for welfare state rollback or accept reality? push for controversial abortion rules or moderate?) that’s more interesting than the personality conflict. — PolitiTweet.org

Matthew Yglesias @mattyglesias

What Fox is best at is just filling the channel with on-message stuff so the audience never needs to hear negative stories about Republicans or positive ones about Democrats. Actively injecting dissonant information into the discourse is much harder. — PolitiTweet.org

Matthew Yglesias @mattyglesias

Right-wing media in the United States is an incredibly important force but it exists in a competitive landscape like any other media — Fox can’t force conservatives to watch content they find displeasing. — PolitiTweet.org

Matthew Yglesias @mattyglesias

Not to say it won’t work this time but the Murdoch Press *already* turned on Trump two years ago — what happened was Fox lost market share to Newsmax and OANN so they pivoted back. — PolitiTweet.org

Matthew Yglesias @mattyglesias

@MarcBodnick @ijbailey @davidshor I think the “wokeness” stuff was a big deal in 2020 but never thought it mattered in 2022 — people chilled out and the issue landscape moved on. — PolitiTweet.org

Matthew Yglesias @mattyglesias

@MarcBodnick @ijbailey @davidshor No my thesis was “Democrats should be talking about abortion” (which they did) and also “Democrats should moderate their substantive position on abortion” (which they didn’t). Their choice worked better than I would’ve thought. — PolitiTweet.org

Matthew Yglesias @mattyglesias

Given the close division in the House, I think the best way forward is probably a grand coalition between market liberals, social liberals, social democrats, and christian democrats that sidelines the greens, leftists, and far-right populist parties. — PolitiTweet.org

Matthew Yglesias @mattyglesias

Some good news this month! Doesn’t seriously alter the policy picture but definitely bolsters the case for slowing the pace of rate hikes. — PolitiTweet.org

Matthew Yglesias @mattyglesias

You won’t believe what they’re teaching school kids about causation these days https://t.co/5CDk5aBt3G — PolitiTweet.org

Matthew Yglesias @mattyglesias

I think we are shadowboxing here about student loan forgiveness where I have to concede that the politics of the White House’s approach worked out fine. But it’s still not true that there was some crazy youth vote surge. — PolitiTweet.org

Matthew Yglesias @mattyglesias

@MarcBodnick Yeah, I’ve been saying their abortion message in particular was more effective than I’d feared — the paid media really worked. — PolitiTweet.org

Matthew Yglesias @mattyglesias

What normally happens in a midterm is some people who voted for the president decide to vote for the opposition party to check his policy overreach. But what happened this year is some people who voted Republican flipped to Dems because of Dobbs & insurrectionism. — PolitiTweet.org

Matthew Yglesias @mattyglesias

People are already making up stories about youth turnout to explain things — a lot of young people voted but compared to 2018, youth turnout seems to have declined relative to older people. — PolitiTweet.org

Matthew Yglesias @mattyglesias

For the past few years I feel like we are re-learning some of the dumb basics of politics like “some people split their tickets,” “it matters what the candidates say and do,” “small numbers of swing voters are a big deal in zero-sum elections.” — PolitiTweet.org

Matthew Yglesias @mattyglesias

Note that the people who predicted Dems would do well based on reading the turnout entrails were not actually correct; turnout favored Republicans but vote choice > turnout. — PolitiTweet.org

Matthew Yglesias @mattyglesias

Last week I said the NYT covers tech through a negativity lens. Kevin Roose on @DKThomp’s pod said I’m wrong. But look at his description of his own work! https://t.co/xN9gsPMCKV https://t.co/22CP37QYT4 — PolitiTweet.org

Matthew Yglesias @mattyglesias

Is it possible there is an independent marriage effect? Absolutely. I’d buy it for sure. But to demonstrate it you need more than a simple partisanship by marital status split or else it’s like saying that “living near water” (i.e. where the cities) makes you vote Dem. — PolitiTweet.org

Matthew Yglesias @mattyglesias

See a lot of people running with naive causal interpretations of the fact that unmarried women vote so much more Democratic — what if I told you they are younger, better educated, less religious, poorer, and less white than married women? — PolitiTweet.org