(((Harry Enten)))

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

I cited Jack a few weeks ago when he had Trump as a 4:1 underdog. Trump's odds have only fallen since then. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

To add emphasis, Trump got a rally around the flag bump (like other world leaders) in the opening days of the coronavirus pandemic. The best he could manage was a -4 pt net approval. Seems to me unlikely he can there again give how things are going. https://t.co/cyl8L9Adym — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

Some say this is a low pt for Trump, but what does normal mean? He's averaged a -10.5 pt net approval w/ voters in his term. He's had a positive net approval for 1% of his term. His net approval hasn't been above -4 in 1,200 days. Normal is awful for him. https://t.co/cyl8L9Adym — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

Today tied the second lowest % of positive Covid tests at 0.8% in Manhattan, NY... No sign of any upswing after protests + phased re-openings. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

Is Friends still popular? That show stunk. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

I get the point of forks. I get the point of spoons. I have no use for knives while eating food. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

RT @PollsAndVotes: When the epidemic will be under control Beliefs about when the coronavirus epidemic will be under control and things ca… — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

@mWilstory Dukakis was, in fact, up near 20 pts after the 1988 DNC. I speak a little about Dukakis in here :) https://t.co/6ZaDWDi9y3 — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

Trump hasn't held a lead in a single live interview national poll this entire year. He's the first prez incumbent for who that is true in any election in the polling era. Other incumbents who were trailing at this point (Truman, Ford, Carter) led in polls earlier in the year. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

Correct. In the piece I note Ford, as the only incumbent to LOSE with a positive net approval. I can't prove it, but I think appointed incumbent races are different. In the Senate, where we can prove it, they definitely are. https://t.co/meGQPQtr0A — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

There have been candidates who recover from Trump-like deficits (e.g. George Bush in 1988), but they are rarely incumbents... 90%+ of voters have an opinion of Trump. When there have been big comebacks, 70% or less have an opinion of the prez candidates. https://t.co/6ZaDWDi9y3 — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

@kaitlancollins Messy bottom shelf... but will be better next time. https://t.co/Hu3Xea37wQ — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

Folks, I am a man of the people. I heard your discussions of my bunker tv set up. I have moved over to the bookshelf. Thank you. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

RT @KFILE: .@ForecasterEnten going for the hostage look. https://t.co/oyRJQptGm7 — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

In fact the only incumbent prez who was polling below 45% in general election polling at this point and won was Truman in 48... — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

1 potentially interesting thing that I'm not sure I internalized even if I knew is that even tho Bush was a little ahead of Clinton (and basically tied with Perot) at this point in 1992, the fact that he was getting in the low 30s (!) as an incumbent is something else. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

@Nate_Cohn Brutal. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

I said this in the beginning of May, and I'll say it again. "History says whoever can best handle coronavirus will win the election." Right now it's Biden by a wide margin in the polls. https://t.co/Cf68Q1ZBGu — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

@NathanWurtzel I see this tweet. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

Manhattan, NY positive test rate for Covid-19: Today's report - 0.9%, Yesterday - 0.9%, 2 days ago - 1.2%, 1 week ago - 0.8%, 2 weeks ago 1.2%, 3 weeks ago - 1.6%, 4 weeks ago, 1.8%. https://t.co/qUpV88PKvh — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

LOTS of Democratic internals being released this month. Very few Republican internals. When one side has a clear advantage in terms of polls released, it usually means they do well in the fall. https://t.co/0BNG0H94mw — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

@Nate_Cohn When you put it that way... — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

"Georgia is a swing state in 2020" https://t.co/wbklFCqYd1 and "From a former disbeliever: Why Texas could go blue in 2020" https://t.co/G3w9H2nQi8 — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

Biden has to win in zero of these states. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

Trump now trails by 10 pts in 2016's most pivotal state (Wisconsin). His deficit has more than doubled over last few months. Tough for him to win without WI. Importantly, Trump's losing ground with noncollege whites, who make up a majority of WI voters. https://t.co/EDXWhwHXS6 — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

@nymetrowx CUTOFF!!!! — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

I want football back, but he's right. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

Some of you may seen a very drab background https://t.co/fqWCc5XCqV Those close to me know it was a miracle that somehow my internet held up. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

1 thing I should note... These NYT polls show Biden's lead widening cause Trump is dropping more so than Biden rising. Fox/Marquette don't show the same phenomenon. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

Average of 3 live interview polls after protests began in WI: +10 Biden. Same 3 polls had Biden ahead by an average of just 4 pts in their previous polls. — PolitiTweet.org