(((Harry Enten)))

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

From what I can, there have been 7 Dem House internal polls taken & released this month. 5 of 7 (71%) have included a prez race question. Meanwhile, 8 GOP house internal polls taken & released this month. 3 of 8 (38%) included a prez race question. (1/?) — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

Sees a statewide poll... Then sees no prez matchup... https://t.co/w0v3XJBJSV — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

@nymetrowx Good thing I ordered my food now. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

Agreed. I was really hoping for this, btw. My Father was a HUGE NY Giant fan... Having 3 teams in NYC would have been special. But I guess logistics got in the way somehow. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

@LoganDobson @stevesingiser I'm just freaked out at how much this might cost in NYC. It looks awesome. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

Whether you think of Texas as a swing state is your definition of a swing state... I think we all agree that it is 1. not a bellwether and 2. is very much in play... — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

@NateSilver538 Well it's certainly true that historically one year's EC edge is un-predictive of the next. Heck, the last prez to win EC & not pop vote saw the tipping pt state flip sides in 2004... — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

Q-Pac has Biden +1 in Texas. It was Trump +1 last month... Needless to say that state is very much in play. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

Live interview national polls this month: Biden +12. Non-live interview polls this month: Biden +8. That gap wasn't always there... and it is notable. Lots of plausible reasons, which are better suited for an article. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

Comical difference here. https://t.co/4lIVB1yxlu — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

Is it really too much to ask that the Yankees go winless this season and score 0 runs? — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

Going forward, I'd think that makeup of the Biden coalition (at least right now) suggests he may have an easier electoral map through the Great Lake than Sunbelt battlegrounds given white voters make up a disproportionate share in the Great Lakes. https://t.co/QCrXuif8Qp — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

This comes on top of what I wrote about last month, which showed Biden underperforming Clinton with Hispanic voters. So through the Trump presidency, he's lost among white voters and picked up among nonwhite voters. https://t.co/QCrXuif8Qp — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

I'll further add that in a smaller subset of polls Biden's net favorability looks to be about 10 points lower with black voters than Clinton was at the end of 2016 campaign. Trump's, if anything, is slightly higher (5 pts). https://t.co/bAZY1LGnMQ — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

This essentially indicates that, at least among African-American voters overall, the protests after the killing of George Floyd did not shift voter preference. Movement instead came from white voters. https://t.co/bAZY1LGnMQ — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

Clinton won black voters by 79 pts in registered voter pre-election polls, & by 81 in the exits. Biden since late May (in a dozen polls & 1500k+ interviews) is up 75 pts. Biden's margin essentially unchanged from polls taken pre-protests. https://t.co/bAZY1LGnMQ — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

@NathanWurtzel YES!... 89-3-3 for Cruz. 97-2 for Trump (I have no clue who those 2% are). 76-12-6 for Rubio. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

Kasich primary voters in the 2016 general election: 54% Trump, 33% Clinton, 7% Johnson. This per the CCES. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

Well Trafalgar certainly is painting one picture of the prez race... — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

Moar years is usually better. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

@DemFromCT @Nate_Cohn I especially like it down towards the bottom. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

@SeanTrende I don't get it either — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

@Redistrict Brutal may be too mellow, lol. I don't think Bond and Lewis spoke for 3? years after that primary.... — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

This guy had to ask the audience... Oy. https://t.co/D1u4LJvDAG — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

@aedwardslevy It's a big number... and Dana (I assume) was very smart in asking it that way. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

@NathanWurtzel It's great. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

In my younger days (before I had gray in the beard I have shaved), I would be all in on a certain Twitter convo. In my older state, I am more interested in listening the Pointer Sisters. Just watching this brings a smile to my face https://t.co/TgPmsIRZtw — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

One sort of nutty thing is a. I think caution is definitely warranted in terms of this being an odd election in terms of circumstance. b. The polls have been incredibly steady (to a historic degree). Even the small movement to Biden since May is quite small by historic standards. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

Here's a hot take: The fact that Full House took off and not My Two Dads shows we just have no taste. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

Biden was up double-digits in a Monmouth poll in PA this past week. Clinton was up by about 1 or 2 on average in PA at this point in 2016. It's another indication that Biden continues to run well ahead of Clinton's pace. https://t.co/70biwPjimO — PolitiTweet.org