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(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Something that came to me on-air... One case for Biden was that he could win back white voters. In a state like Michigan (as in national polls), Biden is doing about as well as Clinton among nonwhites. Among white voters, he's doing about 10 points better than she did. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@Nate_Cohn FWIW, I also remember where I was when Palin was selected... (I was in bed cause i stayed up all night waiting for the pick and fell asleep before it was announced.) — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@NateSilver538 LOL!... I remember the cab driver's name too (not really). — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
I recall that when Clinton selected Kaine, I was in a cab from La Guardia to the UES to meet my Mom for dinner. My phone battery was dying & I was typing furiously... This year I'll probably be in bed (a rare piece of furniture I own) when Biden makes his selection... — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
RT @BenJ_Rosenblatt: The NYC BOE refuses to post any updated results until after all races are certified. I'm working on a bill to change t… — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Five weeks later, it appears Rep. Carolyn Maloney (D) has defeated Suraj Patel (D) by ~3,700 votes in the #NY12 pri… https://t.co/Gjt0AORln9
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Seems to me pretty clear... Georgia/Texas are both clearly winnable states for Biden and are battlegrounds. They will probably not be the tipping points, however. Biden's best path probably runs through some combo of AZ, FL, MI, PA, and WI. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Trump's economic net approval (approve-disapprove) has dropped 15 points since January, and Biden has erased Trump's edge on who is more trusted on the economy. This means Trump leads on none of the major issues (Covid, race relations or the economy). https://t.co/pzw1QoQwwh — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
A friend is informing me that he passed on getting his shih tzu Popeyes or White Castle, so that the friend could get himself Wawa coffee. Currently, I am cursing said "friend" out. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@SeanTrende But if all the tall people wear one!! — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@SeanTrende And this is why I wear a mask and a face shield. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
The way I'd describe this to a mass audience (and have done so)... Biden is a clear favorite, but the race is still within the margin of error. Trump has a legitimate shot of winning this thing, even if I wouldn't expect it. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Based on some simplistic modeling stuff I've been doing (nothing big from me), I'd estimate Biden has something like a 3 in 4 to 4 in 5 shot of winning at this point. That's based on polling data since 1940... — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@Nate_Cohn Can I guess? — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
This is an average gap for a prez election. It's been 1.8 points in the 41 elections since the Republican Party was founded... — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
So we do show an Electoral College vs. popular vote gap that works in Trump's favor, although it's about half as large as in 2016.
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
RT @Commentary: CNN senior political writer/analyst Harry Enten @ForecasterEnten joins the @Commentary podcast to discuss the dynamics of t… — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@amyewalter AWWWWWWW. U BETTER HAVE GIVEN THEM SOME! — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Our CNN/SSRS swing state polls show a massive partisan divide on who will vote by mail. Interestingly, that divide hasn't been nearly as stark in primaries so far, nor in the requested vote by mail in FL. Still there will likely be some gap come fall. https://t.co/3zLu56VID7 — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
We're under 100 days til election day (and way less than that til some people start voting via mail/absentee), and the election isn't close to being the top story right now. That's not something a lot of us are used to. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Me yelling at my computer screen 15 or 16 years later... https://t.co/AzFOLmDMsH — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Trump is behind in a state no Republican has won the presidency without in 96 years. (We are talking about Florida here, which is as close to must win for Trump as any bellwether state. Biden hasn't trailed in a poll there since winter.) https://t.co/hU91qRy5VE — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
To me, the most telling number remains Trump's just flat out bad net approval rating. Those tend to be pretty stable from now until the election. And given 90%+ of voters who approve are going for Trump & 90%+ voters who disapprove are going for Biden, that's a huge deal. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
RT @jennagiesta: New @CNN @ssrs_research polls this morning from AZ, FL, MI show Biden ahead in all three states. Trump's approval ratings… — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@NathanWurtzel Not bad. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
1 stat I love about Florida is the margin has been within 6 points in every prez election since 1992 I believe. No state has a streak that long. Additionally, the last 3 gov elections have been a point either way. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
I finish a tv segment. As I finish, the person in the room with me pumps their fist. I think I really nailed the segment... Turns out something just happened in the Dodgers/Giants game instead... — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
We're 100 days and a few hours out from election day... This is an unprecedented election, but Trump's trying to come back from a deficit only one incumbent has (Truman) and with a net approval worse than any incumbent has. https://t.co/b5DPBfpU3X — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Lots of great Regis moments... I always just loved this one... He just randomly walks in on the noon local newscast as it is wrapping up. (They filmed Regis & Kelly/Kathie Lee in the same building...) The local newscasters were thrilled by it https://t.co/c2w0mLdnPs — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
We're a little over 100 days from election (100 days and 11 hours)... A lot of unknowns, but to me the biggest figure continues to be that no prez with a net approval anywhere close to Trump's (-15 pts) at this point has ever been re-elected. https://t.co/b5DPBfpU3X — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@ElectProject I honestly don't know how it changes. As I've said over and over again... if you presented this scenario (raging pandemic in which most of the world was doing objectively better), you'd probably assume polls that looked similar to the ones now. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@ElectProject lol... we mention the pandemic in there too. — PolitiTweet.org
