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(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Funny, I have a piece coming out tmrw that Trump's voters form the loud minority, not the silent majority — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Seems to me that if Biden is at 51% in polls but his supporters aren't super vocal and don't have a ton of yard sig… https://t.co/lCOAG8ipFR
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Election Day is now 66 days and 5 hours away (thanks DST)... Absentee ballots get sent out in NC starting next Friday. This my friends is it. This is what it's all about if you're into elections. It's crunch time. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@ElectProject Yep, that sounds right... It's difficult to model, but everything I see suggests something high. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
I wouldn't be shocked by closer to 65% based on the midterm turnout. It should definitely be high, whatever it is. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Based on polls that ask whether people are more or less enthusiastic about voting than usual, we would currently pr… https://t.co/Kz3SH0tLoc
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
So fun fact, I really don't drink regular soda anymore. I ordered what i thought was diet root beer the other day. I drank the whole thing no problem & didn't think much of it. I looked down... The root beer was regular. — PolitiTweet.org
Kristen Soltis Anderson @KSoltisAnderson
Was looking for a good summary of The Election Forecast Model Wars on the internet and found this on Reddit, which… https://t.co/YPhMPzJ7yV
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
And heck maybe the rest is wrong... but there is a load of data going in the other direction. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
The thing about Trafalgar's polling is that to believe it is right you to need not just believe the vast majority of the state polling is wrong but that the national polling (which was quite good in 2016/2018, has tons of data, & lots of different modes) is wrong too. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Just made the decision. It's definitely Popeyes for lunch tmrw. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@samwyoming We don't acknowledge the remake here. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
The Mets are a joke. The fact that NYC essentially traded the Giants and Dodgers for the Mets is a bigger heist than what they pulled in Pelham 123. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
As someone who has been in this biz for 2012 (very young) and 2016 (still young but able to grow a beard), a lot of the arguments about uncertainty sound... like I'm watching the election equivalent of TV Land. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@aedwardslevy Not bad. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Continues to be an impressive/ominous image from the Gulf... https://t.co/vxGJf7scGJ — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@DemFromCT @SeanTrende @NateSilver538 I could argue a. it's twitter. b. it's the gut vs. brain phenomenon. Do some people whose head tells them Trump could lose, deep down believe it's not possible. A reason to trust polls/models, which should limit subjectivity. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
I watch old newscasts for fun... I'm watching a 1997 WABC newscast with Lee Goldberg doing the weather. He's 24 in this clip in the largest tv market in the U.S. & looks like he's been doing it for 25 years. Just masterful. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Interestingly, more voters believe Trump will win re-election than lose. — PolitiTweet.org
Jim VandeHei @JimVandeHei
🚨 It feels like August of ‘16 all over again. Polls show Trump losing big. Pundits proclaim he can't win. Reporters… https://t.co/zw2yM1BrWC
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
One other thing... if ur just going to average polls without controlling for house effects/quality, there are a lot of massive house effects out there... It will give u the idea that the race is moving when it's not. States tend to follow (directionally) where the nation goes. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
We should also set parameters on what exactly is a big and/or meaningful shift. Like is it 1 points toward Trump? 2? More? What about % of vote. Does Biden fall under 50%? Is it @natesilver538's model moving from 7/10, 3/4 to 2/3? Like what are we talking about here? — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
It's totally possible that the swing states are shifting more towards Trump than the national picture. I've done videos (https://t.co/G0IRhlPkmr) and articles (https://t.co/hcmtohfwPh) on it. But for me, personally, I'd need to see a lot more evidence myself... (1/?) — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Man that is some imagery down in the Gulf... https://t.co/GgREAvqzMh — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Like let's wait and see. I, tbh, have been floored by a lot of politics in the last 12 years. But everyone declaring this stuff about reaching voters in xyz... I just don't get it? I didn't get it last week, and I don't get it this week. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
We got about about maybe 15% of voters watching this stuff. Most of whom are hardcore partisans in one of the most stable races ever. And little sign the horserace significantly moved after the DNC. This idea that any of the DNC/RNC activities will move voters is untested. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@JohnBerman I think u were my current age back then... Or close to it. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Who were the people supporting Trump at this point in 2016? Less than 75% of Republicans were, compared to about 90% today. 1/5 of Trump voters did not have a favorable view of him in 2016. Today it's about 1/14. A base convention made more sense in 2016 than today. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@NathanWurtzel I remember I caught my Father giving the dog bread. I was like "what are you doing?" He said "I didn't give it to the dog." I said "I literally saw you!" He said "then what are you bothering me for?!" Still cracks me up. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@NathanWurtzel All in moderation... I don't see anything wrong with a hamburger? — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Currently trying to get a friend (as I do every week) to get his shih tzu White Castle burgers and film her eating. He says maybe. I feel like this is progress. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
I will say this (https://t.co/ylBOVRqJ79) is consistent with this https://t.co/jGd3RmrAmO — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Striking crosstab from @knightfdn survey of 4,000 U.S. college students (Biden leading Trump 70%-18% overall): Whi… https://t.co/JNnHNbDKCu
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@POLITICO_Steve @nathanlgonzales Sounds like a good food choice to me. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
LOL. (Folks average the two and you're actually pretty close to the probable truth.) https://t.co/SlbAjegO17 — PolitiTweet.org
