(((Harry Enten)))

@ForecasterEnten ↗

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Last Checked Sept. 20, 2020

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Wed Aug 26 15:25:16 +0000 2020

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(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

We should also set parameters on what exactly is a big and/or meaningful shift. Like is it 1 points toward Trump? 2? More? What about % of vote. Does Biden fall under 50%? Is it @natesilver538's model moving from 7/10, 3/4 to 2/3? Like what are we talking about here? — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 26, 2020

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(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

It's totally possible that the swing states are shifting more towards Trump than the national picture. I've done videos (https://t.co/G0IRhlPkmr) and articles (https://t.co/hcmtohfwPh) on it. But for me, personally, I'd need to see a lot more evidence myself... (1/?) — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 26, 2020

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(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

One other thing... if ur just going to average polls without controlling for house effects/quality, there are a lot of massive house effects out there... It will give u the idea that the race is moving when it's not. States tend to follow (directionally) where the nation goes. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 26, 2020