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(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
We've actually had two high quality polls from Maine 2 in the last two weeks. They show Biden up 4 and 9 points. Could they be wrong? Of course. But maybe they're hinting at something. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
To say I'm skeptical of the idea that the Big 10 coming back is gonna help Trump... is an understatement. His numbers have been mediocre to downright awful in the Midwest as he waged this battle. https://t.co/FLD1aSz0MB — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@stevesingiser Cause the article was online and then pulled. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
If you were to look at the high quality telephone/cell phone non-partisan stuff out of Wisconsin since the conventions, Biden's been up 4-10 points. Each poll has at least 600 likely voters. Lead looks quite real to me. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
I don't like this commissioner. What a clown. — PolitiTweet.org
Josh Kraushaar @HotlineJosh
Ugh. Manfred also said the expanded, 16-team postseason is likely to remain beyond 2020, adding that “an overwhelm… https://t.co/WXAtQyVOQs
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
I like looking at different averages (https://t.co/7ihxdHYPkD). While aggregating the aggregators has its limits, different techniques can be applied to averaging. Interesting to see how any differences matter. — PolitiTweet.org
Jack Kersting @jhkersting
New small project. Just my take on the polling averages, very similar to fivethirtyeight. just got bored during cla… https://t.co/W3r304JwoX
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@A_agadjanian Too funny, I'm doing a piece on this and literally am quoting this article. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Why it's so important to average crosstabs. There are big league margins of error. — PolitiTweet.org
Josh Kraushaar @HotlineJosh
Go figure: Monmouth Florida poll shows Biden running better among Hispanics than other FL polls but worse among sen… https://t.co/bceQOex9Rk
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
About as many rural areas in NYC as there are maps where Trump wins without Florida. It's possible, but highly, highly unlikely. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
At this point in Wisconsin, you either believe the polls or you don't. But it's quite clear Biden has the advantage there. And if he does, the electoral map leans in his direction. NC is close, which feels right. https://t.co/1VgIUA1W0U — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
We'll see what happens down the stretch, but Biden's Hispanic problem looks very real. Looking at pre-election polling from 2016 and now, it seems Biden's ~10 pts off the Clinton pace among Hispanics in FL and nationally. https://t.co/GWmMOsnhrY — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Doing some online videos... This one on Trump's historic unpopularity and what it means for 2020. His approval rating has never hit 50% once in a live interview poll. https://t.co/eq2kXqWQXy — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@nymetrowx Just make sure u add an inch or two to every snowfall forecast. And remember 2-5 inches feels a lot better than 2-4 inches. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@DemFromCT October?! — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Summer is over. Thank you. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@nymetrowx ARE WE BEST FRIENDS NOW?! — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@KSoltisAnderson @POLITICO_Steve Between this and Wally, you got a good twitter feed going. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
I like the dark skies and the cool weather. Sue me. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Joe Biden is a lot closer to winning Texas at this point than Donald Trump is to winning Minnesota, if the polls are anywhere close to right. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@PatrickRuffini This is fun... Where is this specific version from? — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@nymetrowx Delicious. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@nymetrowx insert gif of that wrestling guy going "yes, yes, yes" — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
When looking at a Black voter crosstab, i've seen the margins differ by 30+ pts... and methodologies/samples of pre-election & exits can differ. I'm not claiming one is right. Rather to understand any direction of change, best to compare like polls to another. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Two general rules for crosstab analysis. 1. Compile as many polls as you can. For some tabs (say white voters), a few will do cause you can get sample size up fast. For others, you'll need many. 2. Try to make an apples to apples (e.g. pre-election to pre-election polls). 1/? — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Assuming Biden gets NE-2 and holds the Clinton states, winning in AZ means he only needs 2 of the 3 (MI, PA, WI). — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
RT @AllisonLHedges: Where the polls stand today vs 2016... Notice today's undecideds at less than half of 2016 levels. @ForecasterEnten ht… — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Man the Jets are atrocious... That or the Bills are very good. I hope it's the latter. I fear it's the former. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Why the national polls matter... National polls are usually more accurate, & we have a good idea of where Biden's zone of danger is electoral college-popular vote split. Chance Trump wins if Biden is up 7 nationally on E-Day is basically nil. https://t.co/AHFReJesCy — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Josh Allen fumbled? 2020 may be different from 2019, but some things never change. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Gotten a lot of data from Minnesota this week... All of it shows Biden with a clear advantage over Trump. https://t.co/9lkohXXPia — PolitiTweet.org
